ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292220
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 25 20110629
221030 2007N 09448W 9665 00336 //// +222 //// 197023 024 021 011 01
221100 2006N 09447W 9667 00334 //// +222 //// 192023 025 027 010 05
221130 2006N 09445W 9665 00337 //// +223 //// 188024 026 023 010 05
221200 2006N 09443W 9657 00344 //// +226 //// 184026 027 027 010 05
221230 2006N 09442W 9665 00338 //// +228 //// 181025 026 018 011 01
221300 2006N 09440W 9670 00335 //// +232 //// 181027 028 027 009 05
221330 2005N 09439W 9659 00344 //// +230 //// 179027 028 023 011 01
221400 2005N 09437W 9666 00339 //// +227 //// 174028 029 026 013 05
221430 2005N 09436W 9666 00338 //// +230 //// 172031 031 025 013 05
221500 2005N 09434W 9666 00338 //// +230 //// 174028 029 024 011 01
221530 2005N 09432W 9659 00345 //// +231 //// 175027 027 019 011 05
221600 2004N 09431W 9669 00336 //// +235 //// 173026 026 013 012 01
221630 2004N 09429W 9665 00341 //// +235 //// 173026 027 010 012 05
221700 2004N 09428W 9658 00347 //// +235 //// 172026 027 005 012 05
221730 2004N 09426W 9671 00336 //// +237 //// 168026 026 005 011 05
221800 2004N 09425W 9662 00343 //// +237 //// 168025 026 /// /// 05
221830 2003N 09423W 9663 00343 //// +239 //// 169025 026 002 012 05
221900 2003N 09421W 9670 00338 //// +240 //// 167026 026 000 012 05
221930 2003N 09420W 9660 00347 //// +237 //// 167025 025 000 013 05
222000 2003N 09418W 9664 00342 //// +237 //// 167025 025 /// /// 05
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292230
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 26 20110629
222030 2002N 09417W 9669 00338 //// +240 //// 164025 025 /// /// 05
222100 2002N 09415W 9659 00347 //// +240 //// 162025 026 010 013 05
222130 2002N 09414W 9666 00340 //// +240 //// 159026 027 /// /// 05
222200 2002N 09412W 9660 00346 //// +241 //// 157026 027 000 014 05
222230 2002N 09411W 9664 00342 //// +240 //// 155026 027 002 013 05
222300 2001N 09409W 9661 00346 //// +240 //// 154026 026 000 013 05
222330 2001N 09408W 9659 00347 //// +241 //// 153026 027 001 014 05
222400 2002N 09407W 9664 00342 //// +242 //// 146029 031 /// /// 05
222430 2004N 09408W 9657 00350 //// +244 //// 140028 030 /// /// 05
222500 2005N 09409W 9654 00351 //// +244 //// 141029 030 002 014 05
222530 2006N 09411W 9664 00340 //// +240 //// 147027 028 002 013 05
222600 2007N 09412W 9668 00338 //// +240 //// 147027 028 /// /// 05
222630 2008N 09413W 9671 00335 //// +240 //// 148027 028 000 014 05
222700 2009N 09415W 9665 00341 //// +240 //// 149026 027 /// /// 05
222730 2011N 09416W 9656 00349 //// +238 //// 151025 025 /// /// 05
222800 2012N 09417W 9672 00334 //// +240 //// 152026 026 /// /// 05
222830 2013N 09419W 9664 00341 //// +237 //// 155027 028 001 014 05
222900 2015N 09420W 9658 00346 //// +235 //// 155028 028 002 015 05
222930 2016N 09421W 9668 00337 //// +233 //// 155028 029 002 015 05
223000 2017N 09423W 9659 00344 //// +233 //// 155029 029 000 014 05
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Recon will be passing through that heavy convection on the SE side here shortly...then through the NW side, which is where the strongest winds were that were convection induced, correct?

[cycloneye]

Breaking News

WTNT61 KNHC 292231
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE
A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS
SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...21.3N 95.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$

[Dean4Storms]

This slow down could just be the ticket for Arlene to make hurricane status before landfall.

[CrazyC83]

I am guessing the basis is the 53 kt SFMR in the SW quad and they disregarded the NE quad readings for now at least.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292240
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 27 20110629
223030 2018N 09424W 9667 00337 //// +235 //// 157029 030 010 013 05
223100 2020N 09425W 9662 00339 //// +235 //// 155031 032 005 015 05
223130 2021N 09427W 9666 00336 //// +233 //// 156031 032 009 016 01
223200 2022N 09428W 9662 00340 //// +227 //// 157030 031 010 016 05
223230 2024N 09429W 9661 00340 //// +226 //// 155030 031 017 018 01
223300 2025N 09431W 9667 00335 //// +225 //// 159030 031 021 017 01
223330 2026N 09432W 9668 00335 //// +223 //// 161030 031 020 017 05
223400 2028N 09433W 9659 00342 //// +224 //// 161029 030 020 017 05
223430 2029N 09434W 9663 00337 //// +219 //// 154032 033 037 032 05
223500 2030N 09436W 9660 00340 //// +197 //// 171030 032 037 029 05
223530 2032N 09437W 9661 00341 //// +209 //// 180029 032 021 018 05
223600 2033N 09438W 9664 00337 //// +216 //// 181029 031 015 018 01
223630 2034N 09439W 9668 00332 //// +214 //// 177026 027 017 018 01
223700 2035N 09440W 9664 00335 //// +210 //// 178026 026 015 019 01
223730 2037N 09442W 9664 00334 //// +212 //// 179026 027 019 019 01
223800 2038N 09443W 9662 00335 //// +210 //// 183024 025 018 019 05
223830 2039N 09444W 9666 00330 //// +211 //// 181026 027 016 019 01
223900 2040N 09446W 9668 00327 //// +213 //// 180028 029 020 020 01
223930 2041N 09447W 9662 00332 //// +213 //// 181030 030 027 019 05
224000 2043N 09448W 9662 00330 //// +209 //// 181031 031 025 021 05
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292250
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 28 20110629
224030 2044N 09450W 9667 00325 //// +209 //// 184032 032 028 020 05
224100 2045N 09451W 9660 00331 //// +209 //// 185033 034 033 018 05
224130 2046N 09452W 9670 00320 //// +214 //// 185034 035 025 020 01
224200 2047N 09453W 9665 00323 //// +213 //// 186036 037 028 018 05
224230 2049N 09455W 9660 00327 //// +213 //// 185036 037 027 018 05
224300 2050N 09456W 9666 00321 //// +215 //// 183038 039 027 018 05
224330 2051N 09457W 9662 00321 //// +216 //// 181041 042 030 017 01
224400 2052N 09459W 9668 00313 //// +215 //// 181044 045 031 018 05
224430 2054N 09500W 9664 00317 //// +215 //// 181045 046 030 017 05
224500 2055N 09501W 9661 00321 //// +214 //// 182045 045 034 017 05
224530 2056N 09503W 9662 00318 //// +212 //// 179045 045 036 018 05
224600 2057N 09504W 9664 00315 //// +212 //// 179045 047 031 023 05
224630 2059N 09506W 9660 00315 //// +201 //// 175050 053 041 031 05
224700 2100N 09507W 9660 00313 //// +194 //// 173054 055 042 035 05
224730 2101N 09508W 9663 00308 //// +187 //// 175054 055 049 029 01
224800 2102N 09510W 9662 00306 //// +191 //// 176055 055 049 029 01
224830 2104N 09511W 9668 00298 //// +195 //// 179054 056 053 023 01
224900 2105N 09513W 9660 00304 //// +209 //// 177051 052 042 021 05
224930 2106N 09514W 9656 00308 //// +207 //// 176049 052 042 019 05
225000 2107N 09515W 9653 00312 //// +219 //// 183043 045 038 018 05
$$
;

56 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR strongest so far in SE quad.

[Bobo2000]

My thoughts is Arlene is going to make landfall as a 74-77 mph Cat1

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

In the 996 mb message (getting this from GE overlay) the SFMR estimate was 66 not surface winds. Am I seeing that right?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292301
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 29 20110629
225030 2108N 09517W 9669 00294 //// +228 //// 189035 035 034 014 05
225100 2109N 09519W 9664 00297 //// +231 //// 195030 032 030 015 05
225130 2109N 09520W 9667 00294 //// +233 //// 201028 029 028 015 05
225200 2109N 09522W 9657 00303 //// +237 //// 210021 024 022 015 01
225230 2110N 09523W 9669 00291 //// +238 //// 214019 020 024 013 05
225300 2110N 09525W 9663 00294 //// +237 //// 208019 020 022 014 05
225330 2111N 09526W 9665 00292 //// +240 //// 216019 021 032 012 05
225400 2112N 09528W 9661 00295 //// +240 //// 222020 022 022 014 05
225430 2112N 09529W 9662 00294 //// +242 //// 229019 021 021 014 05
225500 2113N 09530W 9660 00292 //// +240 //// 236018 018 026 013 05
225530 2115N 09531W 9667 00284 //// +244 //// 240019 020 /// /// 05
225600 2116N 09532W 9663 00287 //// +244 //// 243019 020 034 010 05
225630 2117N 09533W 9664 00284 //// +244 //// 246020 021 031 012 05
225700 2119N 09533W 9667 00281 //// +241 //// 250019 020 039 008 05
225730 2120N 09534W 9662 00283 //// +240 //// 253020 021 039 009 05
225800 2122N 09535W 9664 00279 //// +242 //// 259018 019 036 011 05
225830 2123N 09535W 9664 00278 //// +240 //// 258014 015 033 010 05
225900 2125N 09536W 9662 00279 //// +240 //// 250012 013 028 012 05
225930 2126N 09536W 9667 00274 //// +243 //// 244009 010 032 011 05
230000 2128N 09537W 9663 00278 //// +236 //// 223007 008 /// /// 05
$$
;

Looks like another missed center. Estimated extrapolated pressure 997mb so far based on conversions used for last fix.

[HURAKAN]

My thoughts is Arlene is going to make landfall as a 74-77 mph Cat1

Maybe 75.2!!! lol

Arlene has been very surprising to say the least and I won't be surprised to see it become a hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Real center looks to be near 21.4N 95.3W, even farther east than the NHC update, based on the latest Recon data. Arlene looks to be drifting south/east.

[CrazyC83]

In the 996 mb message (getting this from GE overlay) the SFMR estimate was 66 not surface winds. Am I seeing that right?

That is correct. The NHC seems to have disregarded those as unrepresentative.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292310
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 30 20110629
230030 2129N 09537W 9665 00277 //// +235 //// 199006 007 /// /// 05
230100 2131N 09538W 9667 00273 //// +234 //// 197008 009 /// /// 05
230130 2132N 09539W 9662 00276 //// +231 //// 187007 008 034 012 05
230200 2133N 09540W 9659 00276 //// +230 //// 196008 009 /// /// 05
230230 2135N 09541W 9667 00270 //// +232 //// 205008 009 035 012 05
230300 2136N 09542W 9658 00276 //// +230 //// 218008 008 034 014 05
230330 2137N 09543W 9668 00267 //// +234 //// 247010 011 024 013 05
230400 2138N 09544W 9662 00270 //// +233 //// 257009 010 029 014 05
230430 2139N 09545W 9657 00273 //// +235 //// 244007 008 025 014 05
230500 2140N 09546W 9665 00266 //// +236 //// 237008 008 /// /// 05
230530 2142N 09547W 9663 00266 //// +240 //// 242009 009 /// /// 05
230600 2143N 09547W 9670 00259 //// +240 //// 242008 009 031 013 05
230630 2145N 09548W 9658 00268 //// +240 //// 232007 007 /// /// 05
230700 2146N 09549W 9663 00263 //// +241 //// 210005 005 012 015 05
230730 2147N 09550W 9666 00260 //// +245 //// 183004 004 025 014 05
230800 2149N 09551W 9660 00265 //// +245 //// 118007 010 020 014 05
230830 2150N 09551W 9671 00256 //// +245 //// 101016 019 023 015 05
230900 2151N 09553W 9652 00274 //// +245 //// 094014 018 /// /// 05
230930 2150N 09554W 9659 00268 //// +244 //// 006001 004 /// /// 05
231000 2148N 09553W 9671 00257 //// +243 //// 276005 007 018 014 05
$$
;

Center near 21.5N 95.5W. Rough pressure estimate 995mb (based on heights and last report).

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 292320
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 31 20110629
231030 2147N 09552W 9661 00267 //// +240 //// 269009 009 016 015 05
231100 2146N 09551W 9666 00262 //// +240 //// 262010 011 005 016 05
231130 2144N 09550W 9666 00263 //// +240 //// 259012 013 023 015 05
231200 2143N 09549W 9661 00268 //// +240 //// 255013 013 011 016 05
231230 2142N 09548W 9661 00268 //// +240 //// 260013 014 016 014 05
231300 2141N 09546W 9670 00263 //// +240 //// 247012 013 /// /// 05
231330 2141N 09545W 9661 00269 //// +241 //// 234014 015 /// /// 05
231400 2142N 09544W 9646 00281 //// +244 //// 229014 014 /// /// 05
231430 2143N 09545W 9651 00277 //// +241 //// 226013 014 /// /// 05
231500 2145N 09544W 9656 00272 //// +237 //// 203013 013 026 015 05
231530 2147N 09544W 9666 00262 //// +238 //// 184013 014 014 015 05
231600 2148N 09544W 9662 00265 //// +243 //// 157017 020 /// /// 05
231630 2150N 09544W 9479 00436 //// +231 //// 140025 031 /// /// 05
231700 2152N 09544W 8974 00922 //// +203 //// 142032 033 /// /// 05
231730 2154N 09544W 8523 01368 //// +188 //// 137026 028 /// /// 05
231800 2156N 09544W 8088 01821 //// +167 //// 127027 029 /// /// 05
231830 2157N 09544W 7762 02177 //// +165 //// 125028 031 /// /// 05
231900 2159N 09544W 7473 02502 //// +142 //// 123030 032 /// /// 05
231930 2201N 09543W 7185 02834 //// +126 //// 115031 032 /// /// 05
232000 2202N 09543W 6938 03133 //// +120 //// 113032 033 /// /// 05
$$
;

Mission over. I guess they had enough with the missing data.