WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[Infdidoll]

Honestly, though - a Cat 2 equivalent hitting us from the East side might not be as bad as when Songda hit us from the West. Still could have some nasty gusts, but it shouldn't be near as bad as it was looking for us 24 hours ago. Shanghai may have it worse than we will.

[KWT]

The big difference Infdidoll is this system will have a very large area of high winds...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all from bleary eyed me in Naha.

Getting set for a day of wobble watching now and it would appear on satellite there's been another slight wobble to NW over last hour. Normally I wobble don't concern me that much but when an island is in the path they're a big deal!

Radar would also seem to suggest a slight track north of west over last hour. Tense day ahead!

Pressure down to 991.9hPa at Naha airport with winds of around 24kts from the NNE and max gust of around 40kts about 1 hours ago.

[rdhdstpchld]

Yeah, I got up too to see if the apocalypse was bearing down on us...Doesn't appear to be so I'm going back to bed!

Agreed - same here. I am wondering tho, didn't songda come in from the south to north?
ETA: - what slowed/weakened this system last night? It was big and bada$$ when I went to bed and now...??

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah, I got up too to see if the apocalypse was bearing down on us...Doesn't appear to be so I'm going back to bed!

Agreed - same here. I am wondering tho, didn't songda come in from the south to north?
ETA: - what slowed/weakened this system last night? It was big and bada$$ when I went to bed and now...??

Eyewall replacement cycle it would appear. But don't be fooled though it's got a big wind field and could well strengthen again south of Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

Looks likt it is still making those wobbles to the north...eith the eye wall so big looks like we may get hit with the eye wall.

[rdhdstpchld]

Yeah, I got up too to see if the apocalypse was bearing down on us...Doesn't appear to be so I'm going back to bed!

Agreed - same here. I am wondering tho, didn't songda come in from the south to north?
ETA: - what slowed/weakened this system last night? It was big and bada$$ when I went to bed and now...??

Eyewall replacement cycle it would appear. But don't be fooled though it's got a big wind field and could well strengthen again south of Okinawa.

James - you're my Jim Cantore...you know that??! LOL -- thanks. I'm amazed -- it's like Muifa enjoys confusticating us all...

[StormingB81]

Quick question..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html on this imagry it looks like it is trying to tighten up again looks like the dry air is leaving..I mean I oculd be wrong I was just wondering.

[Infdidoll]

Okay, I am better rested now. Got a few more hours of sleep. Overexcited husband woke me up asking ME for a report on the storm! She still looks like a hot mess...but a hot mess that is wobbling more to the north. I've been talking smack about this storm. Trying to provoke it. Learned that technique from that stupid Ghost Hunters show. (sorry, bad jokes this a.m.)

If it keeps going NW, we could be in for a good storm.

[StormingB81]

Okay, I am better rested now. Got a few more hours of sleep. Overexcited husband woke me up asking ME for a report on the storm! She still looks like a hot mess...but a hot mess that is wobbling more to the north. I've been talking smack about this storm. Trying to provoke it. Learned that technique from that stupid Ghost Hunters show. (sorry, bad jokes this a.m.)

If it keeps going NW, we could be in for a good storm.

Can it wait till I get home from work in about an hour..I will be madder then you know what if I get stuck on here

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah! It's already over half a degree of latitude north of what JMA were forecasting. Small wobbles will make a big difference. Gonna head out soon and recce south coast area and start shooting!

Edit: My mistake not quite over half a degree north of JMA track but a little bit (I misread forecast point for 04/21z thinking it was current plot!)

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory (updated to 5 day):
ZCZC 245
WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 24.7N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 24.9N 127.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 060000UTC 26.8N 124.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 070000UTC 29.6N 122.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080000UTC 33.2N 120.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
120HF 090000UTC 37.6N 118.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT =
NNNN

JTWC satellite bulletin with Dvorak estimate of 4.5/77kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 040046
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 03/2332Z
C. 24.6N
D. 129.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF 1.4 ON
THE LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 WHILE
THE PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1938Z 24.6N 130.2E TRMM
03/2001Z 24.6N 130.1E SSMI
03/2042Z 24.6N 130.4E SSMS
UEHARA

[Typhoon10]

Slightly off topic but amusing. When I was young, lived in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. There was a cyclone inbetween PNG and Australia. My brother, a friend and I decide to go outside, play around. Seemed exciting with bins and other items flying around. As young boys we thought it would be fun to urinate and see how far it would go in the wind, then our friend decided to turn around....... not a good idea. When corregated iron sheeting from the roofs of houses started flying off, then we decided it was best to go inside.

[supercane]

If I could like a post, this would be the one.
As someone said above, an EWRC fail:

And the latest JMA radar:

[ManilaTC]

:uarrow: If I could like a post, this would be the one.
As someone said above, an EWRC fail:

And the latest JMA radar:

As Nelson Muntz of The Simpsons would say: HAHA! EWRC FAIL! HAHA!

[Infdidoll]

Slightly off topic but amusing. When I was young, lived in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. There was a cyclone inbetween PNG and Australia. My brother, a friend and I decide to go outside, play around. Seemed exciting with bins and other items flying around. As young boys we thought it would be fun to urinate and see how far it would go in the wind, then our friend decided to turn around....... not a good idea. When corregated iron sheeting from the roofs of houses started flying off, then we decided it was best to go inside.

LOL!!! Too funny...and yes, I get used to liking things on Facebook and then get aggravated when I can't simply 'like' them on a forum.

Really...This typhoon isn't bad at all so far. Nothing really going on. Winds aren't much to talk about. I wonder if this is going to pick up later?

[phwxenthusiast]

i wouldn't count this out just yet... waters near Okinawa and Miyako have slightly higher OHC and SST.. latest frames also showing cooling cloud tops... it still has a chance to reintensify into Cat 3, imho...

Infidoll, winds will only get stronger, probably peaking by late afternoon.. southernmost part could still get typhoon-force sustained...

here's the latest wind analysis from RAMMB-CIRA but please use it with caution



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[KatDaddy]

Well Infdidoll I see you are rested and ready MUIFA. The size of MUIFA is very large so you should see some good winds once the feederbands start passing through. MUIFA reminds me of IKE. IKE covered most the Gulf of Mexico and also had large wind field but with winds were between 75-95mph across the Upper TX Coast. Just enough to enjoy and realize you want nothing more.

[Fyzn94]

I think the size and shape of the storm resembles 2003's Isabel in a way...

[dexterlabio]

My thoughts of this bombing again like it did last Sunday are fading...I've been already expecting an EWRC fail but as the wider eye cleared out two days ago, I gave it a shot. Not surprised that the presentation will be like this today, honestly. That's what you get when you're having an EWRC many times that the newly-built eyewall fails to become more solid. Though the environment near Okinawa is quite favorable, so it may intensify still, maybe just a bit. It is also undeniable that the wind field expanded, so even if the JMA or the Euro track verifies, the island will experience strong winds from the typhoon (well I think the eye wobbled more to the NW recently).