ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

20kts of shear?

from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#



15 kts maybe, but difficult to analyze in a strong system. I believe, and perhaps a pro can correct or confirm, that the shear is derived from the position and strength of the high pressure and the assumed effect on the surrounding area.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I guarantee you that if she would had been feeling the 15-20 knot of windshear like this graphics says, she would had not looked this good this morning.

[tolakram]

was a pretty big wobble

I disagree, it was an illusion caused by a non circular eye, but even if it was it was a wobble north of the track and the wobble back put it back on track. Wobbles will become critical if and when Irene gets close to land.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

very good news, especially considering the gfdl has been playing catch up all along. this storm makes me long for a return of the 3 day forecast track.

We have TWC on one of our 58" plasma screens in ops. I'm particularly enjoying the live reports of West Palm Beach "bracing for impact" when they show a guy with a giant pot belly sitting under an umbrella with a cooler of beer nearby. Yep, they're getting ready for impact.

Might not even get much in the way of showers as Irene passes well to the east. Some cirrus, probably.

and they're talking about doing a 7 day cone? just kill me. if anything we should consider a reduction. i am convinced the 5 day cone is actually increasing complacency.

[Macrocane]

Littlevince if you want I can post the HDOB's and you the graphics

000
URNT15 KNHC 241522
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 39 20110824
151230 2316N 07252W 6963 03096 //// +083 //// 130067 069 /// /// 05
151300 2317N 07251W 6970 03094 //// +088 //// 132062 064 /// /// 05
151330 2318N 07249W 6965 03103 //// +085 //// 131065 066 /// /// 05
151400 2319N 07248W 6967 03097 //// +090 //// 127065 066 /// /// 05
151430 2320N 07247W 6968 03099 //// +089 //// 130068 070 /// /// 05
151500 2321N 07246W 6967 03106 //// +092 //// 131070 070 /// /// 05
151530 2323N 07244W 6966 03108 //// +090 //// 131068 070 /// /// 05
151600 2324N 07243W 6968 03107 //// +089 //// 131067 067 /// /// 05
151630 2325N 07242W 6967 03110 //// +090 //// 133066 067 /// /// 05
151700 2326N 07240W 6964 03116 //// +095 //// 134065 065 /// /// 05
151730 2327N 07239W 6968 03111 //// +090 //// 133066 066 /// /// 05
151800 2328N 07238W 6967 03113 //// +090 //// 134064 065 /// /// 05
151830 2329N 07236W 6967 03113 //// +090 //// 135064 065 /// /// 05
151900 2331N 07235W 6967 03117 //// +090 //// 137067 068 /// /// 05
151930 2332N 07234W 6969 03116 //// +088 //// 138070 071 /// /// 05
152000 2333N 07232W 6967 03121 //// +085 //// 138071 071 /// /// 05
152030 2334N 07231W 6967 03121 //// +088 //// 139070 071 /// /// 05
152100 2335N 07230W 6967 03122 //// +090 //// 140069 069 /// /// 05
152130 2337N 07228W 6967 03124 //// +090 //// 141069 070 /// /// 05
152200 2338N 07227W 6967 03123 //// +090 //// 141069 070 /// /// 05
$$
;

[vbhoutex]

lots of wobbling the past few hours as it makes the turn.

You can see what I mean by checking out this VIS floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

not soo much actually.. the eye is moving alot since its tilted. recon says its still wnw about 290 to 295.

Last wobble was a big wobble almost due west, maybe 275-280 or so. She's wobbling like a spinning top.

With the apparently tilted eye I don't find the wobbling surprising. Disconcerting? Yes, especially if I were anywhere on the Atlantic coast. We need to watch for a trend now. My initial guess without taking a long look is that the wobbling is just that(normal for strong canes)and not a move furhter West or NW.

[littlevince]

ok, thks

[artist]

here to help with recon if needed.

[Sanibel]

117KT FL

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241532
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 40 20110824
152230 2339N 07226W 6967 03125 //// +085 //// 141068 068 /// /// 05
152300 2340N 07224W 6967 03128 //// +088 //// 142067 067 /// /// 05
152330 2341N 07223W 6970 03127 //// +090 //// 142065 065 /// /// 05
152400 2343N 07222W 6967 03132 //// +090 //// 142064 065 /// /// 05
152430 2344N 07220W 6967 03130 //// +090 //// 141062 063 /// /// 05
152500 2345N 07219W 6967 03132 //// +088 //// 142061 061 /// /// 05
152530 2346N 07217W 6968 03132 //// +085 //// 143060 060 /// /// 05
152600 2347N 07216W 6967 03133 //// +089 //// 144059 059 /// /// 05
152630 2349N 07215W 6967 03135 //// +087 //// 146059 059 /// /// 05
152700 2350N 07213W 6967 03135 //// +085 //// 146058 059 /// /// 05
152730 2351N 07212W 6967 03138 //// +085 //// 148057 057 /// /// 05
152800 2352N 07210W 6967 03139 //// +086 //// 149056 057 /// /// 05
152830 2354N 07209W 6967 03141 //// +088 //// 149056 056 /// /// 05
152900 2355N 07207W 6969 03138 //// +085 //// 148056 056 /// /// 05
152930 2356N 07206W 6966 03140 //// +085 //// 149054 055 /// /// 05
153000 2355N 07205W 6969 03138 //// +087 //// 150051 052 /// /// 05
153030 2354N 07206W 6969 03139 //// +087 //// 146051 051 /// /// 05
153100 2354N 07208W 6962 03144 //// +086 //// 143052 052 /// /// 05
153130 2355N 07210W 6969 03135 //// +086 //// 142051 052 /// /// 05
153200 2355N 07212W 6967 03138 //// +085 //// 142051 051 /// /// 05
$$
;

[storm4u]

117KT FL

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View, with 11AM EDT track:

[Sanibel]

Not wobbles. Intensification jerks IMO...

[hurricaneCW]

Irene should easily get closer to the CONUS than Earl did, it's probably going to go a full 2 degrees further west than he did and the turn to the NNE/NE will be similar if not less sharp so a landfall in in SE New England is very possible if not probable.

[vbhoutex]

Well I guess this adds more fuel to the fire for those who believe (like myself) that you should take with a grain of salt "any" model output that is 8-10 days out.
Back then they all had what eventually became Irene going into the GOM and making landfall from central GOM to the west coast of Fl. per their early runs. Even now we have what we once thought was for sure a U.S. landfalling hurricane per all models just yesterday to what "may" turn out to be a major fish storm. Though I still think the jury is out on that call for sure even with the recent model runs. JMHO

I'm not as willing as some to throw out lnger range models. Try as we might we can't get "future" data into these models. All they can go on is the current data and the algorithms built into the models. We all know that what looks like an egg on Tuesday may turn into a steak on Saturday and I don't think any kind of model can predict this. IOW, a weak ridge on Tuesday could become a very strong ridge on Saturday due to changes in the atmosphere that can't be completely accounted for by any kind of computing. As you say, take anything in a model more than a week away "worth a grain of salt".
If I was anywhere on the East coast right now I would not even think about letting my guard down yet and yes I include Florida in this even though all indications are that the peninsula will be spared any really bad weather. From NC northward EVERYONE should be sure their hurricane plans and storm kits are in order NOW!!

[littlevince]

[MarilynH]

haven't posted here in a long time .But always Lurking I have a question if Irene is now moving NW why are they saying the models will shift east???? Is this a misprint or am i simply stupid....< don't answer that part ha

[cycloneye]

Well I guess this adds more fuel to the fire for those who believe (like myself) that you should take with a grain of salt "any" model output that is 8-10 days out.
Back then they all had what eventually became Irene going into the GOM and making landfall from central GOM to the west coast of Fl. per their early runs. Even now we have what we once thought was for sure a U.S. landfalling hurricane per all models just yesterday to what "may" turn out to be a major fish storm. Though I still think the jury is out on that call for sure even with the recent model runs. JMHO

I'm not as willing as some to throw out lnger range models. Try as we might we can't get "future" data into these models. All they can go on is the current data and the algorithms built into the models. We all know that what looks like an egg on Tuesday may turn into a steak on Saturday and I don't think any kind of model can predict this. IOW, a weak ridge on Tuesday could become a very strong ridge on Saturday due to changes in the atmosphere that can't be completely accounted for by any kind of computing. As you say, take anything in a model more than a week away "worth a grain of salt".

The best example of why you dont have to be 24-7 looking at the models is what occured in Puerto Rico. The models in a consistent way had Irene moving south of PR and making landfall in Hispanola.(Check the first pages of models thread) But look at what occured with landfall in PR and moving more NW emerging just west of San Juan.

[NDG]

What Nassau just reported right now is probably going to be at least what some of the east coast of FL is going see starting early tomorrow morning, with some of these outflow like boundaries shoot away from the NW quadrant of the Irene, like is happening right now over Nassau with Irene being 280 miles SE from Nassau, this is a big storm.

Current Weather Conditions:
Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The
(MYNN) 25-03N 077-28W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 24, 2011 - 11:00 AM EDTAug 24, 2011 - 10:00 AM CDTAug 24, 2011 - 09:00 AM MDTAug 24, 2011 - 08:00 AM PDTAug 24, 2011 - 07:00 AM ADTAug 24, 2011 - 05:00 AM HST
2011.08.24 1500 UTC
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT) gusting to 32 MPH (28 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 87 F (31 C)
Heat index 95.7 F (35.4 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MYNN 241500Z 06018G28KT 9000 -SHRA BKN016TCU 31/24 A2985

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

[WYNweather]

Quote from The Bahamas Meteorological Department "IRENE IS POUNDING MAYAGUANA AND LITTLE INAGUA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES ITS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK …."
here is the link to their site http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[AdamFirst]

haven't posted here in a long time .But always Lurking I have a question if Irene is now moving NW why are they saying the models will shift east???? Is this a misprint or am i simply stupid....< don't answer that part ha

Welcome to the board

Irene has been forecast to take a NW turn for awhile now. Where it made that turn was yet to be seen (it has commenced now though).

Eventually it will move towards the north-northwest, then due north, then due north-northeast. Where it will be when it makes those turns? Only time will tell.