ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030700
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 18 20110803
065000 1625N 06757W 8428 01533 0039 +201 +081 046013 013 009 001 00
065030 1626N 06759W 8428 01535 0037 +208 +081 054016 018 014 001 00
065100 1627N 06800W 8429 01535 0038 +208 +082 060020 021 016 001 00
065130 1628N 06801W 8426 01537 0043 +203 +082 062021 022 020 000 00
065200 1629N 06802W 8429 01536 0044 +203 +082 057021 022 021 001 00
065230 1631N 06803W 8428 01539 0046 +200 +082 059022 023 023 000 00
065300 1632N 06805W 8429 01538 0050 +197 +081 057023 024 024 001 00
065330 1633N 06806W 8424 01546 0053 +194 +080 060025 026 026 000 00
065400 1634N 06807W 8430 01541 0055 +194 +080 061029 030 026 000 00
065430 1635N 06808W 8430 01540 0055 +195 +080 062030 031 028 000 00
065500 1637N 06810W 8426 01546 0056 +196 +080 059032 032 028 000 00
065530 1638N 06811W 8429 01544 0054 +200 +080 059031 032 027 001 00
065600 1639N 06812W 8425 01547 0056 +199 +080 060032 033 026 001 00
065630 1640N 06813W 8432 01544 0058 +197 +079 059033 033 028 000 00
065700 1642N 06815W 8425 01552 0059 +195 +079 059032 033 029 000 00
065730 1643N 06816W 8428 01550 0060 +197 +078 060032 032 028 001 00
065800 1644N 06817W 8427 01552 0062 +195 +078 061032 032 030 000 00
065830 1645N 06818W 8425 01553 0064 +193 +077 061031 032 027 003 00
065900 1647N 06820W 8430 01548 0065 +190 +076 061031 032 027 000 00
065930 1648N 06821W 8426 01551 0068 +190 +076 061030 030 026 000 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

hmmm is that 1003mb pressure on that last pass? Or am I reading that wrong? Nevermind.. thanks Dave...for all you do with recon obs by the way.

[Dave]

[beoumont]

These cirrus spikes are usually indicative of pretty decent intensification We'll see, I guess. OY!



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[SunnyThoughts]

Recon showing pressure of 1003 unflagged. I think that is the lowest we've seen the entire duration of the storm.

[Rainband]

seems to be on track and it will end up where it goes. I trust the forecast. My local Met said not to worry and he never hypes anything. Hopefully someone gets some needed rain from her but that's all. We don't need anymore financial burden in this country or any other for that matter.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030710
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 19 20110803
070000 1649N 06822W 8428 01549 0069 +189 +075 061031 033 026 001 00
070030 1650N 06823W 8429 01551 0069 +190 +075 060035 036 028 002 00
070100 1651N 06825W 8425 01556 0068 +190 +075 060036 037 030 001 00
070130 1653N 06826W 8428 01554 0072 +189 +075 061037 037 029 000 00
070200 1654N 06827W 8427 01555 0072 +190 +075 062038 038 028 001 00
070230 1655N 06828W 8428 01555 0073 +187 +074 063039 040 030 001 00
070300 1656N 06830W 8429 01554 0076 +185 +074 063040 040 029 000 00
070330 1658N 06831W 8429 01555 0078 +182 +074 067040 041 026 001 00
070400 1659N 06832W 8428 01558 0080 +180 +074 067040 041 027 000 00
070430 1700N 06834W 8424 01564 0084 +176 +073 067040 041 028 001 00
070500 1700N 06834W 8424 01564 0083 +179 +072 065038 039 028 000 00
070530 1703N 06836W 8428 01559 0084 +177 +071 064035 035 027 001 00
070600 1704N 06837W 8429 01560 0087 +173 +072 067037 038 027 000 00
070630 1705N 06839W 8433 01556 0093 +164 +071 067033 034 026 001 00
070700 1706N 06840W 8418 01571 0094 +164 +068 069032 034 027 006 00
070730 1708N 06841W 8426 01564 0089 +174 +066 068034 034 021 001 00
070800 1709N 06842W 8429 01560 0092 +168 +066 065036 036 024 001 00
070830 1710N 06844W 8428 01562 0090 +170 +067 067033 035 025 000 00
070900 1711N 06845W 8429 01559 0089 +172 +067 068032 033 022 000 00
070930 1713N 06846W 8430 01562 0091 +170 +068 067029 029 023 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 030712
XXAA 53078 99163 70679 04367 99003 26601 20012 00030 26400 19513
92718 22801 20510 85455 196// 23504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80647
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 08
62626 SPL 1635N06786W 0650 MBL WND 20011 AEV 20802 DLM WND 20509
003843 WL150 20013 084 REL 1634N06786W 064754 SPG 1635N06786W 065
016 =
XXBB 53078 99163 70679 04367 00003 26601 11858 20204 22850 196//
33843 184//
21212 00003 20012 11992 20014 22928 20510 33853 23505 44843 25001
31313 09608 80647
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 08
62626 SPL 1635N06786W 0650 MBL WND 20011 AEV 20802 DLM WND 20509
003843 WL150 20013 084 REL 1634N06786W 064754 SPG 1635N06786W 065
016 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 8

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 07:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 7Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.3N 67.9W
Location: 190 miles (306 km) to the SW (220°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 26.5°C (79.7°F) 200° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
1000mb 30m (98 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 195° (from the SSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 718m (2,356 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 205° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 1,455m (4,774 ft) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 235° (from the SW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 6:47Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 16.35N 67.86W
Splash Time: 6:50Z

Release Location: 16.34N 67.86W View map)
Release Time: 6:47:54Z

Splash Location: 16.35N 67.86W (
Splash Time: 6:50:16Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 205° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1003mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1003mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 26.5°C (79.7°F)
858mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 19.8°C (67.6°F)
850mb 19.6°C (67.3°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F)
843mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 200° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
992mb 200° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
928mb 205° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
853mb 235° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
843mb 250° (from the WSW) 1 knots (1 mph)




[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 030713
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/06:48:00Z
B. 16 deg 20 min N
067 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1460 m
D. 35 kt
E. 128 deg 82 nm
F. 152 deg 38 kt
G. 129 deg 87 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C / 1528 m
J. 20 C / 1521 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 0705A EMILY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 04:43:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 07:03:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 311 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 07:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 6:48:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°20'N 67°52'W (16.3333N 67.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 187 miles (301 km) to the SW (220°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,460m (4,790ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 38kts (From the SSE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 4:43:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 7:03:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center

[Dave]

[SouthFLTropics]

Latest VDM showed 16.3N and 67.9W...I think it's safe to say that Miss Emily is going to miss the next forecast point...

SFT

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030720
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 20 20110803
071000 1714N 06848W 8425 01567 0091 +170 +069 071031 031 023 001 00
071030 1715N 06849W 8430 01559 0095 +164 +070 071032 034 026 006 00
071100 1716N 06850W 8426 01564 0096 +166 +068 070029 030 025 002 00
071130 1718N 06851W 8429 01564 0090 +175 +067 069025 026 020 000 00
071200 1719N 06853W 8427 01565 0091 +175 +068 069025 027 018 001 00
071230 1720N 06854W 8429 01565 0091 +175 +070 071025 025 017 000 00
071300 1721N 06855W 8430 01563 0092 +176 +071 068025 026 013 001 00
071330 1722N 06857W 8426 01570 0095 +170 +072 067026 026 017 000 00
071400 1724N 06858W 8426 01568 0097 +170 +073 067027 027 014 000 00
071430 1725N 06859W 8429 01566 0098 +170 +073 065029 029 015 000 00
071500 1726N 06900W 8426 01570 0095 +172 +072 065029 030 013 000 00
071530 1727N 06902W 8426 01569 0093 +178 +072 069030 030 013 001 00
071600 1729N 06903W 8429 01567 0095 +175 +073 072028 030 017 002 00
071630 1730N 06904W 8430 01562 0097 +171 +073 071025 025 020 000 00
071700 1731N 06905W 8429 01568 0099 +170 +072 065025 025 020 000 00
071730 1732N 06907W 8425 01571 0098 +167 +072 063028 029 021 001 00
071800 1734N 06908W 8428 01569 0101 +165 +070 063027 029 026 000 00
071830 1735N 06909W 8425 01569 0103 +166 +069 063024 027 027 001 00
071900 1736N 06910W 8426 01573 0103 +165 +067 068025 026 026 001 00
071930 1737N 06912W 8433 01565 0102 +166 +067 072026 029 029 001 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

I am going to be called insensitive for this, but the western tracks looks totally boring in terms of potential intensity of the storm. The more eastern tracks would provide eventually provide vastly more favorable upper level conditions. I mean if you want to see a surface trough, then hope for the western tracks but otherwise meh.

Emily has been an adventure in patience so far with a few twists just to keep us guessing, sometimes frustratingly so. What's out there to make her turn north? If she stays at this intensity and speed is there anything stopping her from continuing west, or even slightly south of west?

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030730
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 21 20110803
072000 1738N 06913W 8430 01572 0107 +166 +067 079025 026 022 002 03
072030 1738N 06915W 8426 01578 0106 +168 +068 073024 026 /// /// 03
072100 1736N 06915W 8430 01567 0104 +163 +069 068022 022 021 000 00
072130 1734N 06915W 8428 01569 0103 +163 +069 066022 023 023 000 00
072200 1732N 06915W 8431 01565 0103 +162 +069 063022 022 022 000 00
072230 1731N 06916W 8426 01570 0102 +165 +069 063024 024 022 000 00
072300 1729N 06916W 8432 01564 0100 +168 +068 062024 025 022 000 00
072330 1727N 06916W 8428 01567 0103 +165 +069 059023 023 022 000 00
072400 1725N 06917W 8429 01566 0099 +167 +069 062023 023 022 000 00
072430 1724N 06917W 8426 01568 0098 +168 +070 061025 026 022 001 00
072500 1722N 06917W 8430 01563 0098 +169 +071 059026 026 020 001 00
072530 1720N 06918W 8425 01572 0098 +169 +071 054025 026 022 000 00
072600 1718N 06918W 8430 01564 0098 +168 +072 052025 025 024 000 00
072630 1717N 06918W 8428 01568 0098 +169 +072 057026 027 028 001 00
072700 1715N 06918W 8425 01569 0098 +168 +071 049025 026 029 000 00
072730 1713N 06919W 8429 01565 0096 +170 +070 048025 026 028 000 00
072800 1711N 06919W 8428 01568 0096 +170 +070 046028 028 026 001 00
072830 1709N 06919W 8429 01564 0100 +161 +071 045026 027 029 002 00
072900 1708N 06920W 8426 01567 0103 +155 +070 045023 024 031 003 00
072930 1706N 06920W 8424 01566 0102 +158 +068 043026 027 031 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

Someone else pick up hdobs & graphics for awhile...I need to get some sleep! Thanks & Goodnight!

[jpigott]

Recon showing pressure of 1003 unflagged. I think that is the lowest we've seen the entire duration of the storm.

Strenghtening?? First pass thru, recon found 1007mb. Second pass thru, recon found 1003mb. Pretty substantial drop