ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

Judging by the recon fixes, Emily is back to heading west.

[Florida1118]

Yeah I dont think shes going to make the next point, but who knows.

[SunnyThoughts]

Those wispy cloud spikes on the outer fringes of the north side of the storm...wow.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030740
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 22 20110803
073000 1704N 06920W 8429 01561 0095 +168 +067 049027 028 030 001 00
073030 1702N 06921W 8433 01558 0093 +170 +068 045025 029 029 001 00
073100 1700N 06921W 8425 01566 0093 +169 +069 041029 030 029 001 00
073130 1659N 06921W 8429 01564 0101 +157 +070 035026 028 031 001 00
073200 1657N 06922W 8431 01559 0093 +168 +069 039024 025 031 001 00
073230 1655N 06922W 8424 01564 0090 +170 +069 041026 027 029 001 00
073300 1653N 06922W 8429 01559 0091 +170 +070 038026 026 029 001 00
073330 1651N 06923W 8433 01556 0092 +169 +070 042024 024 027 001 00
073400 1649N 06923W 8428 01562 0089 +174 +071 041021 021 026 001 00
073430 1648N 06923W 8426 01562 0089 +171 +072 044022 022 025 000 00
073500 1646N 06923W 8425 01563 0089 +170 +074 043023 023 021 001 00
073530 1644N 06924W 8434 01554 0090 +170 +076 041024 025 023 001 00
073600 1642N 06924W 8425 01563 0088 +169 +076 044024 025 024 000 00
073630 1640N 06924W 8432 01557 0087 +171 +075 042022 023 027 001 00
073700 1639N 06925W 8426 01560 0087 +170 +075 034023 023 027 001 00
073730 1637N 06925W 8428 01558 0089 +170 +076 036022 022 025 000 00
073800 1635N 06925W 8428 01559 0087 +171 +076 040020 021 025 000 00
073830 1633N 06926W 8428 01557 0086 +175 +076 040020 021 024 001 00
073900 1632N 06926W 8429 01558 0086 +171 +077 036020 021 023 000 00
073930 1630N 06926W 8425 01561 0096 +155 +076 026021 022 032 008 00
$$



000
URNT15 KNHC 030750
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 23 20110803
074000 1628N 06926W 8433 01555 0096 +155 +073 029018 019 031 008 00
074030 1626N 06927W 8425 01563 0091 +165 +070 028019 020 031 005 00
074100 1624N 06927W 8425 01561 0086 +175 +069 032018 019 029 000 00
074130 1623N 06927W 8424 01565 0096 +157 +070 026018 020 030 007 00
074200 1621N 06928W 8429 01559 0088 +170 +070 025018 019 028 002 00
074230 1619N 06928W 8425 01563 0084 +174 +069 029019 020 026 001 00
074300 1617N 06928W 8425 01563 0085 +174 +070 025017 017 025 002 00
074330 1615N 06929W 8422 01562 0093 +157 +071 021016 019 032 003 00
074400 1614N 06929W 8428 01557 0086 +172 +070 023018 019 025 001 00
074430 1612N 06929W 8424 01562 0085 +175 +069 024018 018 019 001 00
074500 1610N 06930W 8430 01556 0085 +175 +070 023018 018 020 000 00
074530 1608N 06930W 8425 01561 0085 +173 +072 021018 019 017 000 00
074600 1606N 06930W 8430 01556 0085 +175 +073 020017 017 017 000 00
074630 1605N 06930W 8427 01561 0085 +173 +074 022018 018 015 000 00
074700 1603N 06931W 8427 01559 0087 +173 +075 025016 016 016 000 00
074730 1601N 06931W 8424 01563 0086 +175 +075 027016 017 016 000 00
074800 1559N 06931W 8426 01560 0086 +175 +075 030016 016 016 001 00
074830 1558N 06932W 8426 01561 0086 +175 +075 028016 016 017 001 00
074900 1556N 06932W 8427 01562 0085 +176 +075 030016 017 015 001 00
074930 1554N 06932W 8427 01559 0088 +170 +074 027015 017 021 006 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030800
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 24 20110803
075000 1552N 06932W 8434 01554 0085 +175 +073 026016 017 013 000 00
075030 1551N 06933W 8428 01562 0086 +175 +072 024015 015 009 000 00
075100 1549N 06933W 8420 01567 0085 +176 +071 024015 016 012 001 00
075130 1547N 06933W 8428 01562 0086 +175 +072 026014 014 013 000 00
075200 1546N 06934W 8428 01563 0085 +177 +072 031014 015 010 000 00
075230 1544N 06934W 8428 01560 0085 +176 +072 031014 014 007 000 00
075300 1542N 06934W 8429 01560 0085 +176 +072 029013 014 008 000 00
075330 1540N 06935W 8426 01563 0086 +175 +072 029013 013 012 000 00
075400 1540N 06935W 8426 01563 0086 +176 +072 027013 014 009 001 00
075430 1537N 06935W 8429 01560 0085 +179 +072 028013 014 008 001 00
075500 1535N 06935W 8428 01562 0086 +177 +072 027014 014 008 001 00
075530 1534N 06936W 8428 01562 0086 +175 +072 031013 014 007 000 00
075600 1532N 06936W 8426 01564 0083 +179 +072 031014 014 006 000 00
075630 1530N 06936W 8428 01562 0084 +179 +072 027013 014 009 000 00
075700 1528N 06937W 8428 01561 0088 +172 +072 028012 012 012 005 00
075730 1527N 06937W 8426 01563 0086 +174 +070 024013 014 020 002 00
075800 1525N 06937W 8429 01558 0088 +175 +068 019012 013 016 001 00
075830 1523N 06937W 8426 01561 0088 +174 +068 026012 012 016 000 00
075900 1522N 06938W 8427 01562 0087 +174 +069 033011 012 015 000 00
075930 1520N 06938W 8428 01560 0086 +175 +070 025012 012 007 001 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030810
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 25 20110803
080000 1518N 06938W 8426 01564 0085 +176 +070 027012 013 005 000 00
080030 1516N 06939W 8428 01561 0085 +177 +070 024012 013 007 000 00
080100 1515N 06939W 8428 01561 0087 +175 +070 023012 012 005 001 00
080130 1513N 06939W 8425 01561 0086 +175 +069 038011 012 006 000 00
080200 1511N 06939W 8430 01557 0089 +171 +069 044010 011 007 001 00
080230 1510N 06940W 8429 01558 0088 +173 +069 042010 012 005 001 00
080300 1508N 06940W 8426 01560 0088 +173 +069 038011 012 006 000 00
080330 1506N 06940W 8428 01562 0088 +175 +068 035009 009 005 000 00
080400 1504N 06941W 8428 01563 0088 +175 +069 036009 009 005 001 00
080430 1503N 06941W 8425 01570 0093 +174 +069 031008 009 /// /// 03
080500 1503N 06939W 8433 01558 0092 +172 +069 036006 007 /// /// 03
080530 1504N 06938W 8431 01559 0088 +174 +070 059009 010 004 001 03
080600 1505N 06937W 8422 01568 0088 +173 +070 058008 008 004 000 00
080630 1506N 06936W 8430 01559 0091 +170 +069 052008 009 011 001 00
080700 1507N 06935W 8429 01558 0088 +170 +068 045008 010 006 000 00
080730 1508N 06934W 8425 01563 0089 +170 +068 044008 008 003 000 00
080800 1509N 06933W 8428 01557 0087 +170 +068 048007 007 004 000 00
080830 1511N 06931W 8425 01558 0086 +170 +068 046006 007 004 001 00
080900 1512N 06930W 8425 01557 0082 +174 +068 044006 006 001 001 00
080930 1513N 06929W 8430 01556 0084 +175 +069 032007 007 002 001 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

White dot marks my guess for center of circulation based on aligning latest recon data with lat/long grids of the satellite image closest in timing to the recorded fix, with only 3 minutes difference between image/recon fix.



-------------
The preceding is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WxEnthus]

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030820
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 26 20110803
081000 1514N 06928W 8428 01559 0084 +176 +069 033007 008 004 000 00
081030 1515N 06927W 8429 01558 0083 +178 +069 034005 006 006 000 00
081100 1516N 06926W 8426 01561 0083 +178 +069 036005 006 005 000 00
081130 1517N 06925W 8426 01562 0087 +173 +069 044005 005 004 000 00
081200 1518N 06923W 8429 01558 0084 +177 +069 034006 007 002 000 00
081230 1520N 06922W 8429 01557 0079 +185 +069 035008 008 002 000 00
081300 1521N 06921W 8426 01560 0077 +186 +069 034008 009 002 000 00
081330 1522N 06920W 8428 01560 0076 +187 +070 035008 009 001 001 00
081400 1523N 06919W 8429 01559 0077 +188 +070 034007 007 004 000 00
081430 1524N 06918W 8428 01558 0079 +185 +070 038007 008 002 001 00
081500 1525N 06917W 8428 01558 0079 +185 +069 041007 008 002 000 00
081530 1526N 06915W 8430 01556 0078 +184 +069 035007 008 005 000 00
081600 1527N 06914W 8425 01560 0080 +179 +069 032006 006 003 000 00
081630 1529N 06913W 8432 01552 0080 +180 +069 043005 005 007 000 00
081700 1530N 06912W 8426 01560 0081 +180 +069 041004 004 009 000 00
081730 1531N 06911W 8429 01557 0080 +181 +068 031004 005 007 000 00
081800 1532N 06910W 8429 01556 0078 +181 +069 019005 006 008 000 00
081830 1533N 06908W 8428 01557 0078 +180 +069 017006 006 006 000 00
081900 1534N 06907W 8428 01558 0081 +179 +069 016006 007 007 000 00
081930 1535N 06906W 8428 01555 0082 +176 +069 017006 006 006 000 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030830
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 27 20110803
082000 1537N 06905W 8428 01556 0080 +180 +069 039005 005 005 000 00
082030 1538N 06904W 8428 01559 0080 +180 +069 021005 005 006 000 00
082100 1539N 06903W 8428 01557 0080 +180 +069 024005 006 003 001 00
082130 1540N 06901W 8426 01559 0081 +177 +069 020007 007 004 000 00
082200 1541N 06900W 8428 01559 0081 +176 +069 018007 007 006 001 00
082230 1542N 06859W 8429 01554 0080 +175 +069 021006 006 005 001 00
082300 1543N 06858W 8426 01557 0080 +177 +068 017007 008 006 000 00
082330 1544N 06857W 8428 01556 0078 +179 +069 026007 007 006 000 00
082400 1546N 06856W 8428 01554 0079 +176 +069 020005 006 005 000 00
082430 1547N 06855W 8429 01554 0077 +180 +068 012006 006 004 000 00
082500 1548N 06853W 8429 01554 0077 +179 +068 005005 005 004 000 00
082530 1549N 06852W 8428 01553 0077 +180 +069 009005 005 005 000 00
082600 1550N 06851W 8429 01553 0076 +180 +069 010006 007 004 000 00
082630 1551N 06850W 8425 01558 0075 +180 +070 355008 008 003 001 00
082700 1552N 06849W 8429 01551 0075 +180 +070 358007 007 004 000 00
082730 1554N 06848W 8429 01552 0077 +178 +070 002007 008 004 001 00
082800 1555N 06846W 8429 01549 0076 +177 +070 011008 008 004 000 00
082830 1556N 06845W 8428 01554 0074 +180 +070 006008 009 006 001 00
082900 1557N 06844W 8427 01552 0070 +184 +070 001008 008 005 000 00
082930 1558N 06843W 8429 01550 0070 +185 +070 356008 008 005 001 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

[bamajammer4eva]

...EMILY CONTINUES HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 68.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030840
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 28 20110803
083000 1559N 06842W 8428 01551 0069 +185 +071 346008 009 008 000 00
083030 1600N 06841W 8430 01544 0067 +185 +072 343008 008 007 000 00
083100 1601N 06839W 8425 01554 0069 +182 +072 348007 008 005 001 00
083130 1603N 06838W 8425 01551 0068 +182 +072 353007 007 005 001 03
083200 1604N 06837W 8426 01550 0067 +185 +072 359007 007 013 001 00
083230 1604N 06835W 8426 01549 0066 +185 +072 343006 006 014 000 00
083300 1605N 06834W 8428 01548 0067 +185 +071 349006 006 012 000 00
083330 1606N 06833W 8429 01547 0063 +187 +072 330006 006 011 001 00
083400 1607N 06831W 8426 01548 0065 +182 +072 305008 009 016 000 00
083430 1608N 06830W 8433 01542 0064 +184 +071 314006 006 015 002 03
083500 1610N 06829W 8428 01543 0063 +185 +070 329006 008 018 000 00
083530 1611N 06828W 8426 01543 0061 +185 +070 309005 006 008 000 00
083600 1612N 06827W 8429 01541 0061 +185 +071 325005 006 015 000 00
083630 1613N 06825W 8428 01542 0059 +186 +072 313006 007 012 002 00
083700 1614N 06824W 8428 01542 0053 +193 +072 319005 005 011 000 00
083730 1616N 06823W 8429 01538 0052 +195 +073 326005 005 009 001 00
083800 1617N 06822W 8432 01535 0048 +197 +074 316004 004 008 001 03
083830 1618N 06821W 8428 01539 0048 +195 +074 292003 004 009 000 00
083900 1619N 06819W 8428 01537 0046 +195 +075 246003 004 011 001 00
083930 1620N 06818W 8428 01537 0048 +195 +075 218006 007 013 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

5am Discussion:

IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND
DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

[WxEnthus]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 46 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 42
KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE
THAT ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
WHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH
HEIGHT. ALSO...CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE VERY
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA.
NORTH OF THAT ISLAND...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE...
HOWEVER...AS IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW SEVERELY EMILY WILL BE DISRUPTED
BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND
DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 20.7N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0600Z 22.5N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 26.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 33.5N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Highlighting is mine.

[stormreader]

5am Discussion:

IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND
DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

Wondering how long the model variance will continue. This has been one of my concerns for a couple of days now. Usually expect the model spread to begin to come together sooner rather than later. Wondering how that will play out with Emily.

[RL3AO]

Hmm. NHC location is a full 0.3 degrees north of two very good center fixes by recon. Hopefully they have a reason and aren't trying to make their forecast look better.

[WxEnthus]

My last recon post, I've gotta jet. Someone else can take over please.

000
URNT15 KNHC 030850
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 29 20110803
084000 1621N 06817W 8429 01534 0049 +191 +075 218007 008 012 000 00
084030 1622N 06815W 8426 01538 0049 +190 +075 212008 009 013 000 00
084100 1623N 06814W 8429 01534 0048 +190 +075 196008 009 010 001 00
084130 1624N 06813W 8428 01534 0048 +190 +075 181011 012 013 002 00
084200 1626N 06811W 8429 01533 0049 +187 +075 170014 015 015 000 00
084230 1627N 06810W 8429 01535 0051 +185 +074 161018 019 017 000 00
084300 1628N 06809W 8429 01534 0052 +185 +074 156021 021 018 003 00
084330 1629N 06808W 8427 01535 0060 +173 +074 149022 023 033 009 00
084400 1631N 06807W 8433 01535 0063 +172 +072 144025 028 040 007 03
084430 1632N 06805W 8422 01544 0068 +165 +068 150033 036 042 006 00
084500 1633N 06804W 8439 01530 0071 +163 +066 147037 038 043 007 00
084530 1634N 06803W 8424 01544 0076 +157 +065 143038 039 042 010 00
084600 1635N 06802W 8425 01546 0070 +171 +064 140035 036 041 006 00
084630 1636N 06801W 8426 01546 0069 +176 +063 138035 036 041 001 00
084700 1638N 06759W 8429 01545 0070 +176 +064 138033 035 039 000 00
084730 1639N 06758W 8427 01551 0071 +177 +066 138032 032 039 002 00
084800 1640N 06757W 8425 01553 0073 +175 +068 143034 034 037 000 00
084830 1641N 06756W 8431 01545 0074 +175 +069 144034 035 035 000 00
084900 1642N 06755W 8425 01552 0073 +176 +070 144032 032 035 000 00
084930 1643N 06753W 8429 01550 0073 +176 +071 142031 031 033 001 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmm. NHC location is a full 0.3 degrees north of two very good center fixes by recon. Hopefully they have a reason and aren't trying to make their forecast look better.

Make that 3 very good center fixes by recon now. The VDM isn't out yet, but they just crossed the center again, and it looks south of their other fixes. Emily isn't moving WNW.