ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

949 mb extrapolated.

ooops.. yep.. 949.. thanx.. thought i saw that... missed the extrap too.. but that is still a good drop since 11am

Drop was 954 Mb not 949 that was an error

yep I see it now, I'll shut up and wait for the next fix.

[bahamaswx]

Power company here has reported they will be shutting down when the winds hit 50mph. Not long now.

[cycloneye]

Power company here has reported they will be shutting down when the winds hit 50mph. Not long now.

Stay safe and good luck.

[drezee]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 24

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 22.5N 74.1W
Location: 203 miles (327 km) to the WNW (291°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
965mb (28.50 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.5°C (77.9°F) 145° (from the SE) 93 knots (107 mph)
1000mb -316m (-1037 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 373m (1,224 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 165° (from the SSE) 118 knots (136 mph)
850mb 1,113m (3,652 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 190° (from the S) 103 knots (119 mph)
700mb 2,784m (9,134 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 13.7°C (56.7°F) 215° (from the SW) 99 knots (114 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:04Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 22.48N 73.91W
Splash Time: 17:17Z

Splash Location: 22.61N 73.97W
Splash Time: 17:17:12Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 116 knots (133 mph)

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 115 knots (132 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
965mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.5°C (77.9°F)
850mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 21.2°C (70.2°F)
698mb 13.6°C (56.5°F) 12.8°C (55.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
965mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 93 knots (107 mph)
963mb 145° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph)
960mb 150° (from the SSE) 114 knots (131 mph)
952mb 155° (from the SSE) 122 knots (140 mph)
944mb 155° (from the SSE) 117 knots (135 mph)
939mb 160° (from the SSE) 121 knots (139 mph)
928mb 165° (from the SSE) 116 knots (133 mph)
924mb 170° (from the S) 119 knots (137 mph)
919mb 170° (from the S) 113 knots (130 mph)
911mb 170° (from the S) 117 knots (135 mph)
906mb 175° (from the S) 114 knots (131 mph)
901mb 175° (from the S) 118 knots (136 mph)
890mb 180° (from the S) 116 knots (133 mph)
871mb 185° (from the S) 99 knots (114 mph)
865mb 190° (from the S) 107 knots (123 mph)
858mb 190° (from the S) 101 knots (116 mph)
850mb 190° (from the S) 103 knots (119 mph)
768mb 205° (from the SSW) 91 knots (105 mph)

[tailgater]

Hello I am new to this forum. I just wanted to share this amazing animation whit you.
Keep up the good work!

http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_2011 ... eVideo.mov

Prety cool. needs some dramatic music.

[littlevince]

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/17:03:20Z
B. 22 deg 33 min N
074 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2697 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 034 deg 80 kt
G. 315 deg 13 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3037 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C16
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1409A IRENE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 116 KT NE QUAD 14:52:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 17:12:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 317 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR

[plazaglass]

For northeast Florida people: The NWS Jacksonville office has put out some solid presentations this week on Irene. Here's the latest on the very minor effects expected along Jacksonville's coastal stretch as she passes way offshore.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241742
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 53 20110824
173230 2142N 07314W 6965 03097 //// +093 //// 206062 063 /// /// 05
173300 2141N 07313W 6969 03095 //// +098 //// 209062 063 /// /// 05
173330 2140N 07312W 6967 03100 //// +092 //// 211060 061 /// /// 05
173400 2139N 07311W 6966 03102 //// +091 //// 212058 059 /// /// 05
173430 2138N 07309W 6969 03101 //// +095 //// 214058 058 /// /// 05
173500 2136N 07308W 6968 03103 //// +091 //// 214056 057 /// /// 05
173530 2135N 07307W 6967 03108 //// +096 //// 215055 056 /// /// 05
173600 2134N 07306W 6967 03112 //// +098 //// 216055 056 /// /// 05
173630 2133N 07305W 6966 03114 //// +099 //// 216054 054 /// /// 05
173700 2132N 07303W 6969 03112 //// +100 //// 216053 054 /// /// 05
173730 2130N 07302W 6967 03115 //// +100 //// 216051 051 /// /// 05
173800 2129N 07301W 6966 03119 //// +095 //// 216052 053 /// /// 05
173830 2128N 07300W 6966 03119 //// +095 //// 214051 052 /// /// 05
173900 2127N 07259W 6967 03120 //// +094 //// 212047 048 /// /// 05
173930 2126N 07257W 6967 03120 //// +095 //// 210047 048 /// /// 05
174000 2124N 07256W 6967 03121 //// +095 //// 210046 046 /// /// 05
174030 2123N 07255W 6968 03121 //// +094 //// 212046 047 /// /// 05
174100 2122N 07254W 6966 03120 //// +096 //// 211046 047 /// /// 05
174130 2121N 07252W 6964 03119 //// +095 //// 210045 046 /// /// 05
174200 2120N 07251W 6965 03118 //// +094 //// 206046 047 /// /// 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[Macrocane]

Who wants to take over the HDOB's? I have to leave. Answer here please, so I will know that somebody is taking over. Thanks!

[RL3AO]

Flight is just about over anyway.

[littlevince]

End of mission ?

[bahamaswx]

Looks really, really good in the last couple of frames.

[DTMEDIC]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Is this about what models & NHC had been predicting?

[tolakram]

From the recon thread:



IMO right on the NHC path at the moment.

[littlevince]

From last VDM:
954mb
Eyewall open at southwest

[Macrocane]

Seems like plane is ascending.

000
URNT15 KNHC 241752
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 54 20110824
174230 2120N 07248W 6968 03119 //// +095 //// 206046 047 /// /// 05
174300 2121N 07246W 6967 03123 //// +092 //// 205050 052 /// /// 05
174330 2121N 07244W 6964 03124 //// +090 //// 209050 050 /// /// 05
174400 2121N 07242W 6969 03121 //// +089 //// 211048 048 /// /// 05
174430 2121N 07240W 6969 03121 //// +090 //// 211048 048 /// /// 05
174500 2121N 07238W 6966 03126 //// +087 //// 212050 050 /// /// 05
174530 2121N 07236W 6967 03125 //// +086 //// 209049 051 /// /// 05
174600 2122N 07234W 6960 03137 //// +085 //// 204047 049 /// /// 05
174630 2122N 07232W 6961 03130 //// +088 //// 206049 051 /// /// 05
174700 2122N 07230W 6970 03123 //// +089 //// 206049 050 /// /// 05
174730 2122N 07228W 6966 03129 //// +090 //// 203049 050 /// /// 05
174800 2122N 07226W 6967 03130 //// +089 //// 199050 051 /// /// 05
174830 2122N 07224W 6965 03134 //// +093 //// 199051 052 /// /// 05
174900 2122N 07222W 6969 03131 //// +088 //// 196052 052 /// /// 05
174930 2122N 07220W 6965 03137 //// +087 //// 196053 053 /// /// 05
175000 2122N 07218W 6969 03135 //// +095 //// 196052 052 /// /// 05
175030 2121N 07216W 6968 03137 //// +095 //// 196051 051 /// /// 05
175100 2121N 07214W 6967 03141 //// +092 //// 195049 050 /// /// 05
175130 2120N 07213W 6801 03331 //// +080 //// 194050 051 /// /// 05
175200 2119N 07211W 6549 03641 //// +065 //// 196051 051 /// /// 05
$$
;

[vacanechaser]

Drop was 954 Mb not 949 that was an error

yep I see it now, I'll shut up and wait for the next fix.

i'll shut up and stop trying to read the data myself... always seem to screw it up... lol



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team