ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 292320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
;

[supercane]

Nope, 21.75 N and 95.83 W per latest VDM.
000
URNT12 KNHC 292320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
;
Microwave imagery still shows Arlene has some organizing to do, showing no solid core and definitely no sign of a developing eyewall.

[HURAKAN]

[AJC3]

So in essence, with a center as broad as it is, you'll get yourself in trouble trying to micro-analyze the center fix LALOs and trying to extrapolate a short term movement.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTHWARD FROM PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA AND
FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. ARLENE
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
4 MPH...7 KM/H. HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...AND EASTERN NUEVO
LEON...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[supercane]

Intermediate advisory stats:
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTHWARD FROM PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 01, 2011063000, , BEST, 0, 214N, 958W, 50, 996, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[gatorcane]

Looks to be wraping up as the convection is starting to fill in the northern sector of the storm....odds are increasing that Arlene makes hurricane intensity......MGC

Agreed. The board is dead, however, even though we may have our first cane of the season. Guess that is what a strong northern Gom ridge will do

[SouthDadeFish]

If I didn't see that microwave pass, I would have guessed she's trying to form a banding eye.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[TheShrimper]

Gator, maybe everyone wrote it off and tuned out when someone stated it opened up back into a wave a short time ago.

[lrak]

I'm still here, just nothing to say except its getting abit more tropical around here this evening. Look at the number of guest...

[HURAKAN]

It's the NIMBY effect ... most people only care about a tropical system if it's affecting them

[midnight8]

It's the NIMBY effect ... most people only care about a tropical system if it's affecting them

Or maybe disappointment because everyone wants the rain from it and we will get none

[Javlin]

It's the NIMBY effect ... most people only care about a tropical system if it's affecting them

That's usually the case isn't it?That BOC can do wonders though in a short time frame.Everyone at work was wishing for a TS but I would be concerned some if it trekked N it would no longer be a TS.

[lrak]

Can two lows rotate around each other?

[Florida1118]

That or we just dont have anything to say...It looks just fine, could be a hurricane, could remain a TS. That all I have to say about her She'll be going inland, and really im not all that knowledgeable about weather so I dont wanna say inncorrect things. Were all still following, just not talking

[Hylian Auree]

I think she's developing good core structures. I'd even go as far as saying that the development of an eyewall is not out of the question at this rate; I can see some prominent banding organization near the center already.

Honestly, my initial expectation for this system was just a poorly-organized tropical depression, or a weak gulf TS at the most. Now look at her; she's really surprised us this year!

[supercane]

I think she's developing good core structures. I'd even go as far as saying that the development of an eyewall is not out of the question at this rate; I can see some prominent banding organization near the center already.

Maybe not out of the question, but latest microwave does not show a solid core let alone a developing eyewall:


SHIPS output still has higher than climatologic average probabilities of rapid intensification:

Code: Select all

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011     ARLENE 06/30/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.2 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.0 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  74.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  20.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.4
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    39% is   3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    25% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    12% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[WxEnthus]

Although I've never posted before I've followed the forums here for a long while -- finally registered for a username this month. Hurricane season is my fav weather time -- I get excited when June 1st rolls around. I'm in school for my degree in MET and I've always been a weather geek, so I love reading the discussions and the speculations amongst everyone here, both professional and amateur hurricane fiends. I'm following along and checking in several times a day. My family gets peppered with comments: "Arlene is looking impressive compared to yesterday!" and "The shear is abating and she's down to 996mb now!" They have little idea what I'm talking about but tolerate my random blurts and radar fixations, lol. It's great to read a forum where everyone is as interested as me -- so thanks for everyone who posts all the graphs, readings, and their own 2 cents -- it's my weather fix! I'm definitely keeping up with the forum and Arlene's progress, I've just been very (very) quiet all this time.