ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So...do most of you feel like it will recurve? I mentioned that yesterday because I think it was the Euro that indicated that possibility, and someone said I was being hasty. BTW, I hate recurves.

I would take a recurve anytime over a hit by a strong system on a heavily, or for that matter any, populated area. However, I do know what you.

[SouthDadeFish]

So...do most of you feel like it will recurve? I mentioned that yesterday because I think it was the Euro that indicated that possibility, and someone said I was being hasty. BTW, I hate recurves.

Euro was not showing recurve. Euro never really developed this feature much and shoved it into the Caribbean. To be honest, we shouldn't be talking about recurve much at this time, when it appears this will be a threat to our friends in the Lesser Antilles first. Probably won't be a recurve for them.

[Weatherfreak000]

Honestly this looks like TD 5 right now


Edit: Curiously enough I noticed we don't have any TD's not making it to TS status yet...that's somewhat rare.

[SouthDadeFish]

Honestly this looks like TD 5 right now


Edit: Curiously enough I noticed we don't have any TD's not making it to TS status yet...that's somewhat rare.

Because 3/4 storms started at Tropical Storm strength. NHC seems more hesitant this year to classify a storm.

[northjaxpro]

Have to say the upper level outflow is quite impressive. and it does appear to getting a little better organized than this morning.. some of the linear features are not present now and seems to have some more curvature again. could have just been a optical illusion earlier because of the way the convection looked

Aric, I agree with you. The system definitely does not look as stretched out as it did late last night or earlier this morning during the pre-dawn hours. I am definitely noting the curved banding structure is now becoming more defined on satellite imagery and the convection is trying to coalesce more firmly near the LLC, despite the 20 mph forward motion currently. I know Air Force Recon aircraft is flying out tomorrow, but for me, 91L sure looks like a solid TD right now, and looks to be well on its way to potentially becoming a very strong tropical cyclone in the coming days.

[Aric Dunn]

This from the Miami NWS WSFO discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING
HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK.

apparently they have high confidence of a deeping trough in the Western Atlantic...

Frank

but u missed the last part. After Thursday the high build back. This system will only be passing pr by wed ... so from that recurve seems less likely ...

[ConvergenceZone]

So...do most of you feel like it will recurve? I mentioned that yesterday because I think it was the Euro that indicated that possibility, and someone said I was being hasty. BTW, I hate recurves.

Sunnyday, it SHOULD recurve away from the USA, based upon the model guidance, the projected future pattern, AND how quick it seems to be getting going, but like always you want to keep abreast just in case something changes. It's really too early to say for sure where it's going long-term.


If this would have looked horrible this morning and not developed for a few days, then it would have more than likely tracked into the Central Carib...
I feel bad for the northen islands though, and Puerto Rico because it doesn't look like it's going to be North enough to miss them.

Let's hope it does completely miss the USA, but it could be a very strong and dangerous storm by the time all is said and done.
My prayers go out to all of the those in the islands.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wftv.com/video/28714417/index.html

florida in the path of this one? dont know wait and see

[Gustywind]

Depression likely to form in central Atlantic
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel

Jul 30, 2011 11:08 am ET


Tropics Watch: Daily map analysis

ATLANTIC BASIN

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, and is producing widespread but disorganized showers. Conditions do not appear conducive for development as it moves into northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend, but locally heavy rains could occur in portions of those areas.

A large surface low associated with a well-defined tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic, now less than 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It has been producing more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity during the last day or so.

Upper-level winds are forecast to remain very weak and therefore conducive for development as the system moves over increasingly warm waters, so a depression or appears likely to form before the system reaches the Leeward Islands by Monday night, and it could even be a tropical storm by that time. It could then affect other portions of the eastern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Haiti through the middle of next week. It is too soon to determine what if any other land areas could eventually be affected.

An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, and a NOAA G-IV jet mission is tentatively scheduled for Sunday night to collect data for use in computer forecast models.

[maxx9512]

for what it's worth. From Tampa bay NWS:

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STRONG RIDGE OF 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY MID WEEK...TROUGHING OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL START TO PINCH OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS
PROGS THIS LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE TAIL END
OF THE COMING WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT NHC PROGS WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.wftv.com/video/28714417/index.html

florida in the path of this one? dont know wait and see

Just media hype. To early to say where it will go. I would say Central Florida isn't as likely as a revcuve or Caribbean runner though, but nothing can be ruled out.

[hipshot]

Must be an oops. Nothing there, didn't finish the post?

['CaneFreak]

Operational GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Ridge rebuilds over Northeastern US...NO recurve on this run folks

[Rgv20]

Its looking more and more likely that our friends in the Middle to Northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico are going to have at least TS Emily on their Doorsteps by Tuesday (Lesser Antilles) Wednesday (Puerto Rico).

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS leaves 91L out there in limbo between a leaving trough and a weak building ridge over New England. Just sits it east of Bahamas for a couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of missions starting on Sunday afternoon.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 31/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
       C. 31/1530Z
       D. 14.5N 56.0W
       E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 01/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
       C. 31/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 01/0400Z
       D. 15.2N 58.1W
       E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
          WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.


[sunnyday]

To clarify, I don't want a big storm to hit anyone. I just enjoy watching them develop, and when they recurve, it reminds me of last season.

[cycloneye]

The squadron is ready to fly to 91L missions starting on Sunday afternoon.

Will NHC wait for recon to upgrade?

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 31/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
       C. 31/1530Z
       D. 14.5N 56.0W
       E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 01/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
       C. 31/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 01/0400Z
       D. 15.2N 58.1W
       E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
          WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.


['CaneFreak]

and then out to sea...sorry but this solution does not make any sense

[plasticup]

This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.