ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031110
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 43 20110803
110000 1621N 06900W 8432 01550 0069 +191 +069 311004 005 004 000 00
110030 1621N 06859W 8427 01554 0067 +195 +070 298003 003 005 000 03
110100 1623N 06858W 8441 01539 0066 +195 +070 306004 005 004 000 03
110130 1624N 06857W 8425 01552 0065 +191 +071 296004 004 004 000 00
110200 1625N 06855W 8428 01551 0067 +190 +071 294004 004 008 000 00
110230 1627N 06854W 8425 01551 0063 +194 +071 267002 003 009 000 00
110300 1628N 06853W 8433 01546 0063 +198 +071 188002 003 008 001 03
110330 1628N 06852W 8418 01558 0060 +198 +072 203005 006 007 001 03
110400 1629N 06850W 8430 01547 0061 +195 +072 200007 008 009 001 00
110430 1629N 06848W 8429 01548 0057 +201 +072 197010 011 013 000 03
110500 1629N 06847W 8426 01551 0057 +203 +072 187013 015 019 000 00
110530 1629N 06845W 8429 01549 0056 +205 +073 184015 015 021 000 00
110600 1630N 06843W 8428 01548 0055 +203 +073 180016 017 023 001 00
110630 1630N 06841W 8429 01545 0052 +210 +073 177019 020 024 001 03
110700 1630N 06840W 8427 01552 0066 +189 +073 181019 020 031 003 03
110730 1630N 06838W 8426 01550 0065 +188 +074 186020 020 025 002 00
110800 1629N 06836W 8417 01561 0067 +188 +073 192020 021 022 000 00
110830 1629N 06835W 8442 01539 0076 +180 +073 177022 023 021 003 00
110900 1629N 06833W 8417 01564 0084 +165 +074 181020 023 027 005 00
110930 1628N 06831W 8430 01553 0076 +182 +073 182019 020 026 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 031120
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 44 20110803
111000 1628N 06830W 8425 01558 0077 +184 +071 186020 021 027 000 00
111030 1628N 06828W 8429 01558 0082 +178 +071 182022 023 028 000 00
111100 1628N 06826W 8425 01562 0082 +178 +072 181026 031 031 007 00
111130 1628N 06825W 8443 01544 0091 +163 +073 184025 026 033 007 00
111200 1628N 06823W 8425 01561 0092 +161 +073 175026 028 035 006 00
111230 1628N 06821W 8421 01566 0088 +168 +071 178029 030 041 005 00
111300 1628N 06820W 8433 01555 0092 +164 +070 178028 029 041 005 00
111330 1628N 06818W 8426 01561 0094 +163 +070 177028 029 040 002 00
111400 1628N 06816W 8429 01561 0086 +176 +070 177026 027 039 002 00
111430 1628N 06815W 8428 01562 0089 +174 +071 177028 029 040 005 00
111500 1628N 06813W 8424 01567 0097 +163 +073 171025 026 040 003 00
111530 1628N 06811W 8425 01567 0096 +165 +074 166027 029 039 002 00
111600 1627N 06810W 8432 01563 0093 +169 +075 163028 029 039 002 00
111630 1627N 06808W 8425 01566 0099 +162 +075 165025 027 038 003 00
111700 1627N 06806W 8436 01556 0103 +156 +074 158032 034 038 008 00
111730 1627N 06805W 8425 01567 0106 +151 +074 160033 034 037 007 00
111800 1627N 06803W 8429 01565 0103 +157 +073 167029 030 036 005 00
111830 1627N 06802W 8428 01568 0101 +163 +073 163026 027 035 006 00
111900 1627N 06800W 8426 01572 0105 +158 +073 158027 028 037 009 00
111930 1627N 06758W 8426 01571 0110 +152 +073 156026 027 036 011 00

URNT15 KNHC 031130
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 45 20110803
112000 1627N 06757W 8432 01562 0101 +165 +073 160025 025 034 002 00
112030 1627N 06755W 8422 01574 0095 +173 +074 167025 026 031 003 00
112100 1627N 06754W 8428 01569 0097 +174 +075 171026 026 030 001 00
112130 1627N 06752W 8438 01558 0099 +170 +077 163021 024 033 002 00
112200 1627N 06750W 8435 01563 0106 +160 +077 158016 017 033 003 00
112230 1627N 06749W 8422 01574 0098 +173 +076 160015 015 032 003 00
112300 1627N 06747W 8432 01566 0098 +172 +075 174015 016 030 000 00
112330 1627N 06745W 8428 01573 0104 +166 +077 160018 020 029 000 00
112400 1627N 06744W 8433 01566 0103 +170 +079 143017 019 032 001 00
112430 1627N 06742W 8433 01568 0104 +169 +080 145027 031 030 003 00
112500 1627N 06740W 8429 01574 0105 +169 +081 152037 039 029 001 00
112530 1627N 06740W 8429 01574 0104 +170 +081 159038 039 030 001 00
112600 1627N 06737W 8427 01577 0106 +169 +081 162037 038 027 001 00
112630 1627N 06736W 8424 01582 0111 +164 +081 164037 038 026 001 00
112700 1627N 06734W 8432 01571 0113 +159 +081 158038 039 028 001 00
112730 1626N 06733W 8426 01576 0116 +153 +080 160036 039 024 002 00
112800 1626N 06731W 8428 01574 0111 +159 +078 160029 030 024 002 00
112830 1626N 06729W 8431 01568 0108 +161 +076 167026 027 026 003 00
112900 1626N 06728W 8432 01568 0106 +162 +075 173025 027 024 006 03
112930 1626N 06726W 8430 01570 0107 +160 +072 163026 028 025 006 00

[NDG]

WTNT35 KNHC 031131
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6 69.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

They are wanting her to turn north bad, lol.

First vis sat loop of this morning still looks like that overall she is almost heading due west. You can tell that she is being affected by the westerly shear.

[Gustywind]

Latest news concerning Martinica, after Emily
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121191.php

A storm that hurts
L.H. France-Antilles Martinique03.08.2011

Emily was to reach Guadeloupe and Dominica, but the storm changed its path in the night of Monday to Tuesday. The morning yesterday, Martinique was red vigilance. The heavy rains which are slaughtered on the island caused damage. Some are still visible today.

Traffic was restored on the main roads this morning. Only a few roads still encounter difficulties due to scree on the pavement. In Lorrain, however RD 22 is still blocked by a talus and a tree fell on the pavement. In the day, most of the roads themselves are emptied gradually rain, including the highway impassable for several hours yesterday. However, neighbourhoods still retain traces of the passage of Emily. The centre and South are the most affected areas by accumulations of rain: up to 17 0 mm per hour in some places, namely 17 0 litres per square metre.

Almost all of the firefighters were mobilized to clear congested roads, pruning trees collapsed on the pavement... in all 14 0 interventions recorded Prefecture, mainly Fort-de-France (see pages 4 and 5). It is the municipality which has experienced the most significant damage: downtown Trénelle, Volga and Bô Kannal, water and mud flooded houses. The gull and Morne calabash district, already affected by a landslide last may, the lands again collapsed. 40 Homes were evacuated, most as a preventive measure, the Morne-calabash district, stated yesterday evening the Prefecture. But three were directly hit by Emily. Mud, mounted water, also a rock even came to collapse in a salon in the coves-. Some families have lost everything.

Always moist soils
A gull, a reconnaissance helicopter with the army, a specialist in the Office of mining and geological research and a geotechnical of the city of Fort-de-France should have a better understanding of the phenomenon.

The most affected municipalities should make an application for declaration of a State of natural disaster in the next few days. Analyzed by weather France and the Office of geological and mining research, these requests are then likely, receive a positive outcome of the State.

The weather should not be back until Thursday or Friday, but it there was no new lows announced the immediate did weather France, yesterday evening. The services of the General Council highlighted, them that landslides could still intervene within 48 hours, as the soil moisture. It must therefore be vigilant.

-Electricity, telephone

5,000 customers of EDF are remained private electricity much of Tuesday. Almost all of the network was restored yesterday, but it may remain damage here and there. EDF remains available to the 0810.333.972.

700 persons were also deprived of fixed telephone yesterday, mainly diamond. Subscribers should be restored in the day.

[northjaxpro]

I was here in '64 when Cleo crossed southeastern Cuba and headed up Florida's east coast. I'm watching closely.

Emily may take this similar path as well, especially if the westward motion continues today and she continues to remain disorganized for the short term.

[KWT]

I think 280 is a little too far right, looks to me more like 275.

That being said the difference between the last advisory point and the last recon fix is about 279, so 280 degrees may not be quite so bad...

[Dean4Storms]

No doubt that if Emily doesn't turn more NW today then we got a problem with this missing FL and possibly NC down the road. I believe the lack of deepening and a bit stronger than expected ridge to its north is combining in delaying this turn.

If Emily doesn't deepen a good bit more today the turn could be less pronounced or even delayed IMO.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031140
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 46 20110803
113000 1625N 06725W 8429 01569 0108 +157 +071 161029 029 025 003 00
113030 1624N 06724W 8424 01572 0105 +160 +071 162027 030 027 005 00
113100 1624N 06722W 8431 01563 0106 +159 +072 170022 027 028 003 00
113130 1623N 06721W 8433 01564 0103 +161 +073 170026 027 031 004 00
113200 1622N 06719W 8425 01572 0108 +157 +074 162026 027 033 004 03
113230 1621N 06718W 8436 01561 0107 +159 +073 156025 026 033 004 00
113300 1621N 06717W 8427 01572 0110 +155 +073 162026 027 033 004 00
113330 1620N 06716W 8431 01575 0116 +153 +074 156029 030 032 004 03
113400 1620N 06714W 8426 01574 0115 +151 +076 154031 032 034 004 00
113430 1620N 06713W 8432 01572 0114 +157 +076 158036 038 033 005 00
113500 1620N 06711W 8428 01577 0116 +156 +076 155034 036 033 006 00
113530 1621N 06709W 8429 01578 0111 +168 +075 158040 042 029 003 03
113600 1621N 06708W 8425 01580 0113 +160 +076 160042 043 033 001 00
113630 1621N 06708W 8425 01580 0114 +162 +078 159043 043 031 002 00
113700 1622N 06705W 8427 01579 0114 +161 +079 159041 042 031 003 00
113730 1623N 06703W 8431 01574 0111 +166 +079 158041 041 030 001 03
113800 1624N 06702W 8427 01577 0116 +159 +079 157039 040 029 002 00
113830 1625N 06700W 8425 01581 0115 +160 +079 159040 041 029 002 00
113900 1625N 06659W 8430 01577 0117 +164 +077 159039 039 027 000 03
113930 1626N 06657W 8420 01590 0114 +166 +077 159040 041 025 000 03

[Blown Away]

...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE...

Since the NHC is being conservative with intensity which is based on a track over the heart of Hispaniola, it will be interesting to see the intensity forecasts if Emily skirts the W coast of Haiti?

[wzrgirl1]

I was here in '64 when Cleo crossed southeastern Cuba and headed up Florida's east coast. I'm watching closely.

Emily may take this similar path as well, especially if the westward motion continues today and she continues to remain disorganized for the short term.

I happen to agree with you. Can anyone tell me if they think Emily will cross the gulfstream?

[SFLcane]

[Canelaw99]

It's storms like this that remind us Mother Nature still often prevails over technology LOL. I hope that S Fla pays attention because there could be a rude awakening in a couple of days otherwise. Unfortunately, we all know most of southern FL isn't watching this too closely.

Today will be very telling, IMO, as to the future track. Staying W or finally going NW? Turning or not turning? These are the days in the tropics

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 031140
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/11:02:50Z
B. 16 deg 27 min N
068 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1477 m
D. 15 kt
E. 263 deg 87 nm
F. 030 deg 20 kt
G. 260 deg 47 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 18 C / 1525 m
J. 20 C / 1521 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 0705A EMILY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 47 KT N QUAD 09:28:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 11:35:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 065 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR

[NDG]

Fron the 1st fix to the last fix its been on pretty much a 275 heading...well south of the models.

well just got done calculating it again and yeah 275 is about right.

whats the average for the last 12 hours since you are in calculation mode?

In case Aric has not responded yet, but I calculated around 280 deg, so the NHC is right on their 8 AM AST advisory.

Now, for her to make landfall at the forecasted forecasted track by the NHC on the Dominican Republic, she will start to head on a 318 deg heading, like right now, surely that is not happening.
If she stays on a 280 deg heading she is in course to come across Jamaica, just a fact.

[Evil Jeremy]

shift to the sw on that hwrf?

Gfdl slight west shift.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031150
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 47 20110803
114000 1627N 06656W 8428 01580 0114 +164 +077 160041 042 026 000 00
114030 1628N 06654W 8433 01578 0114 +165 +078 160040 041 026 001 00
114100 1629N 06653W 8428 01582 0114 +166 +078 159040 040 026 000 00
114130 1630N 06651W 8415 01595 0118 +163 +078 161039 040 025 000 00
114200 1631N 06650W 8429 01580 0119 +164 +078 163037 037 027 001 00
114230 1632N 06648W 8416 01599 0123 +159 +078 160035 035 027 000 00
114300 1633N 06646W 8429 01585 0120 +165 +079 156034 034 028 000 00
114330 1634N 06644W 8426 01590 0121 +164 +080 156035 035 027 002 00
114400 1635N 06643W 8430 01582 0121 +163 +081 154035 036 026 001 00
114430 1636N 06641W 8428 01585 0122 +162 +082 150036 036 026 000 00
114500 1637N 06639W 8426 01587 0121 +164 +083 154035 036 025 001 00
114530 1638N 06637W 8428 01584 0124 +160 +084 154035 036 026 001 00
114600 1639N 06635W 8425 01591 0123 +165 +084 155035 035 027 000 00
114630 1640N 06634W 8430 01584 0124 +165 +085 156035 035 026 000 00
114700 1641N 06632W 8425 01591 0123 +165 +085 156034 034 025 000 00
114730 1642N 06630W 8428 01595 0126 +165 +086 155035 036 023 002 03
114800 1642N 06628W 8425 01592 0124 +165 +086 157034 034 021 001 03
114830 1643N 06626W 8429 01586 0122 +168 +086 158033 034 019 000 00
114900 1643N 06624W 8429 01587 0122 +167 +086 157033 033 027 000 00
114930 1644N 06622W 8425 01591 0122 +166 +086 159032 033 026 001 00

[NDG]

BTW, Emily's LLC is weakening some by the hour as she keeps moving away from the deepest convection.
On the last pass by the Recon, the closest winds to tropical force winds were a good 60 miles away, if not more.

Edit: Sorry, I was going by the flight level winds, SFMR did show tropical force winds at the surface closer to her LLC.

[Dean4Storms]

No doubt that if Emily doesn't turn more NW today then we got a problem with this missing FL and possibly NC down the road. I believe the lack of deepening and a bit stronger than expected ridge to its north is combining in delaying this turn.

If Emily doesn't deepen a good bit more today the turn could be less pronounced or even delayed IMO.

[Blown Away]

I was here in '64 when Cleo crossed southeastern Cuba and headed up Florida's east coast. I'm watching closely.

Emily may take this similar path as well, especially if the westward motion continues today and she continues to remain disorganized for the short term.

I happen to agree with you. Can anyone tell me if they think Emily will cross the gulfstream?

Yeah, a slight W shift will bring Emily right up the Gulfstream.

[gatorcane]

Why does the HWRF think it will strengthen that much prior to Hispaniola? The way it looks now, that is doubtful.

Could mean it has a right-bias for the overall run.

[SFLcane]

shift to the sw on that hwrf?

Gfdl slight west shift.

Both GFDL/HWRF came westward some on there 06z runs..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL072.gif