ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[GCANE]

Looks like that hot-tower has developed a strong core cell centered just a hair above 15N.

[KWT]

No one here is saying that the NHC is hopeless. This is tough for them to forecast. Emily has been fooling us all.

Indeed, the NHC have done a decent enough job thus with Emily and its not been that easy of a forecast neither.

I think they will need to shift abit west, but as Wxman57 said, still probably a little bit away from Florida.

[dwsqos2]

And now I see the weak LLC on the northwestern edge of the convection. My what a fascinating storm this is. I am not surprised, but stil.

[Bocadude85]

Are we sure this will even be Emily tomorrow? Looks pretty pathetic to me..

[Kory]

Interesting to note, all of the BAM models have shifted whatever is left of Emily to the Southeast Gulf.

[Kory]

The BAM models are the green lines.

[Bocadude85]

Did the NHC change the track?? Go to this link and click Trop pts and look at the track.. that is not the current NHC track...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Now the track is back to the original track... just a second ago the track had this making landfall on the southern Haiti penisula..

[SFLcane]

And now I see the weak LLC on the northwestern edge of the convection. My what a fascinating storm this is. I am not surprised, but stil.

Nothing fascinating about this ugly tc...Right up there with fay as the most annoying storm to track.

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone know when the next recon is?

[Aric Dunn]

The Gap is closing... latest cimss analysis.... better start turning soon..

[dwsqos2]

I guess sarcasm doesn't translate well.

Fay was glorious compared to this. Fay had an eye over central Florida and deepened to ~988 mb. This storm has barely ever has had a well-defined LLC. And now it gets to have even more severe shear issues.

[jdray]

Models to the left, models to the right, Florida in between. Interesting patterns.

HWRF is a coast raker big time. UK Met and the Bamms would show some damage as well.
Looks like the trend is back west for now.

[KWT]

Looks like either shear has picked up or the mid level flow has slowed down even more...

Either way not a healthy system, better hope it doesn't hit Hispaniola naked otherwise its game over...

That being said, looks like due west is carrying on, would be an amazing call from the Nogaps if it does end up dying out...

[SFLcane]

I guess sarcasm doesn't translate well.

Fay was glorious compared to this. Fay had an eye over central Florida and deepened to ~988 mb. This storm has barely ever has had a well-defined LLC. And now it gets to have even more severe shear issues.

Hope this isn't a trend for this season..

[AHS2011]

Is there a chance that Emily will not go over Hispaniola?

[Aric Dunn]

the shift is coming at 12z..

[cycloneye]

Anyone know when the next recon is?

Plane departs at 12:45 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

03/1800Z,04/0000Z       
       B. AFXXX 0805A EMILY     
       C. 03/1645Z                 
       D. 16.8N 69.3W             
       E. 03/1730Z TO 04/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SouthFloridawx]

Or is it? Dun dun dunnnn...

Looks like either shear has picked up or the mid level flow has slowed down even more...

Either way not a healthy system, better hope it doesn't hit Hispaniola naked otherwise its game over...

[KWT]

Is there a chance that Emily will not go over Hispaniola?

I think given the weakening trend Emily is showing, its certainly possible that it does just carry on to the W at 275/280...which would mean it will miss Hispaniola...

[PTPatrick]

What I find funny is that a fair amount of the envelope has it going over a substantial portion of Cuba(granted, lots of bamms) but uk and canadian there too, yet the NHC barely covers the eastern tip. Just strange, normally their cone is almost dead on with the "cone" that is the spread of models. They seem really reluctant to shift west much, but then they generally only nudge the track a few miles at a time...much to the dismay of many STKers over the years, lol.