ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

WILL THIS BECOME A WEAK TS AND IF SO WILL WILL TS WATCHES AND WARNINGS GO OUT FOR THE ECFL. COAST?

Please,dont post in caps. Is early to reach that conclusion,but in the tropics,never say never.

Opps sorry all for the caps

[MGC]

I'd say 98L has improved it organization quite a bit this evening compared to earlier in the day. Not sure where or if there is a surface circulation but the MLC is starting to get some convection near it and is headed south. I'd speculate that recon will fly Sunday.....MGC

[cycloneye]

SSD floater with 98L.

[Rgv20]

Looks like 98L is going to be meandering the same general area for a couple of days as the steering currents remain rather weak.

The million dollar question would be where 98L goes?? Out to sea as forecast by the Global Models?? or West toward the Gulf as forecast by the BAM Models?? Time will tell haha

[SFLcane]

Big high pressure system to the north of 98L is digging in its heels and could block the Atlantic route. I could see this moving into central florida and inhancing precip over the state during the next couple of days.


If it keeps cruising south at this speed it will be off Miami by noon tomorrow.

[Hurricaneman]

If this keeps organizing the way it is, we may get a significant tropical storm

Not official

[Hurricaneman]

If this system still looks like this, they will go in

[South Texas Storms]

Are the 0z models initializing this correctly?

[gatorcane]

Big high pressure system to the north of 98L is digging in its heels and could block the Atlantic route. I could see this moving into central florida and inhancing precip over the state during the next couple of days.


If it keeps cruising south at this speed it will be off Miami by noon tomorrow.

and water temperatures only get (much) warmer as it heads south with mid 80s seen across the offshore waters of South Florida and Bahamas. Convection tonight is likely due to it now heading over the Gulf stream current.

The structure is gradually improving. Assuming convection sustains, up to code orange by tomorrow AM.

Also convection over mainland FL has waned as heating of the day has been lost. But it interesting to note convection is on the increase near 98L, further sign it may be trying to organize.

[South Texas Storms]

Why does this not have much model support? It looks pretty good tonight.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

In this loop, you can really see the cyclonic turning on the NW fringe of the green blob of convection...moving SSE towards the Northwestern Bahamas...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Radar out of Melbourne,FL on the east coast picks up 98L nicely on the very far right-side of the image...with spin evident East of Cape Canaveral....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Shear tendency indicates decreasing wind shear (blue areas on the graphic) and why NHC is mentioning that conditions will become a little more favorable over the next day or so:

[LarryWx]

Radar out of Melbourne,FL on the east coast picks up 98L nicely on the very far right-side of the image...with spin evident East of Cape Canaveral....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That spin appears to now be drifting at least a little west of south. Anyone else see this? Could a SW and then W motion be on the way? We'll see!

Also, if it does start moving SW or W, it will be interesting to see if the shear temporarily worsens.

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

Still dropping S .... slowly organizing.. should have a decent LLC by morning.

[LarryWx]

Per JB on Twitter just an hour ago:

"System off Florida coast looking better on Melbourne Radar. Southeast coast should keep an eye on this. In a position where it could develop."

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have to confess that I never had faith on this system until tonight, it's getting better organized could give us a surprise, I'm not expecting a strong system though.

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A ORGANIZED WIND CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sanibel]

That's usually how it happens. The Atlantic basin is totally dead and something forms right out of nowhere near to home.

[dwsqos2]

I guess that I'm the only person unimpressed altogether. Pressures are high; I think I saw 30.00 in. at the lowest. Winds are light at nearby buoys. It's also really hard to go against all the reliable globals; even the tc-happy CMC does zip with this. I'm voting against development.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.