ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

HWRF evades the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Is getting that omminous look.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: The language is very strong.

Not surprising. IT has been quickly organizing and have had the indications for a few days now. should still have A TC tomorrow sometime.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: The language is very strong.

Not surprising. IT has been quickly organizing and have had the indications for a few days now. should still have A TC tomorrow sometime.

There is some easterly shear,but as the system moves more west,that will ease.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Surpassed the 9N latitude.

AL, 91, 2011072912, , BEST, 0, 92N, 406W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[TheEuropean]

cycloneye, shouldn't we link to the discussion in Talkin Tropics on first page here?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111267

[TheBurn]

Kinda has that 'troublemaker' look to it...

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, shouldn't we link to the discussion in Talkin Tropics on first page here?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111267

oops! I forgot. But is now up there.Thank you for the remainder.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cycloneye, looks like a threat for Puerto Rico and the islands but we all know the drill. I saw the GFDL but it is only one run.

It's still early to say where it goes and how strong it actually gets.

We have seen many a system where 91L is now pass to the islands to the Northeast...even systems farther south than where 91L is now.

If 91L strengthens more quickly than expected, it should move past the islands to the Northeast.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110729  1200   110730  0000   110730  1200   110731  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.2N  40.6W   10.1N  42.7W   11.1N  45.3W   12.2N  48.2W
BAMD     9.2N  40.6W   10.0N  42.7W   11.0N  44.9W   12.1N  47.2W
BAMM     9.2N  40.6W   10.0N  42.6W   10.9N  44.8W   11.8N  47.1W
LBAR     9.2N  40.6W   10.2N  42.7W   11.4N  45.3W   12.8N  47.8W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110731  1200   110801  1200   110802  1200   110803  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  51.2W   14.8N  56.6W   16.4N  61.9W   18.3N  67.3W
BAMD    13.0N  49.6W   14.2N  54.2W   15.9N  58.6W   18.3N  62.4W
BAMM    12.5N  49.4W   13.6N  53.9W   15.2N  58.7W   17.5N  63.6W
LBAR    14.0N  50.4W   15.9N  54.8W   18.4N  58.0W   21.9N  59.0W
SHIP        55KTS          69KTS          75KTS          74KTS
DSHP        55KTS          69KTS          75KTS          74KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.2N LONCUR =  40.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =   8.4N LONM12 =  38.6W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   8.0N LONM24 =  36.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

[wxman57]

I'd say that development chances are higher than 30% by Sunday morning. Probably closer to 80-90%. This one looks destined to be a NE Caribbean hurricane threat Monday/Tuesday.

[AHS2011]

What are the chances that this system makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard?

[Gustywind]

This morning's discussion of 91L by Rob of Crown Weather Services

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Of much more concern is a fairly well organized tropical disturbance, labeled Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 91-L was located this morning over the central Atlantic about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Given the overall look of this system and the fact that environmental conditions are fairly conducive to development, I think we will see development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by Sunday and Monday. In fact, I will be bold and say that this system could very well become our first hurricane of the 2011 Hurricane Season.

Everyone across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands need to go over their hurricane disaster kits today as this system could be affecting you by Tuesday as a hurricane. Also, if you have family and friends in the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, let them know that they may have a hurricane threat on Tuesday.

After passing the Leeward Islands, it’s tough to say where it will go given that it is up to 5 to 7 days away, however, this system has the potential to be a threat to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

This is a system that I will be monitoring throughout this weekend and into next week and I will keep you all updated.

That's a bit worrying my friends in the Carib. I noticed the term Hurricane, probability seems high to deal with a cat 1?!
Let's continue to monitor closely the situation.

[theweatherwatch]

This morning's discussion of 91L by Rob of Crown Weather Services

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Of much more concern is a fairly well organized tropical disturbance, labeled Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 91-L was located this morning over the central Atlantic about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Given the overall look of this system and the fact that environmental conditions are fairly conducive to development, I think we will see development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by Sunday and Monday. In fact, I will be bold and say that this system could very well become our first hurricane of the 2011 Hurricane Season.

Everyone across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands need to go over their hurricane disaster kits today as this system could be affecting you by Tuesday as a hurricane. Also, if you have family and friends in the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, let them know that they may have a hurricane threat on Tuesday.

After passing the Leeward Islands, it’s tough to say where it will go given that it is up to 5 to 7 days away, however, this system has the potential to be a threat to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

This is a system that I will be monitoring throughout this weekend and into next week and I will keep you all updated.

That's a bit worrying my friends in the Carib. I noticed the term Hurricane, probability seems high to deal with a cat 1?!
Let's continue to monitor closely the situation.

If these models come to pass you guys will be dealing with more then a cat. 1 Hurricane. SHIPS was forecasting a 107kt cat. 3 by 120 hours, GFDL is showing a 105kt Cat. 3 by 126 hours. If I were you I would start preparing now for a cat. 3/4 early next week. Better to be safe then sorry!

[chrisjslucia]

HWRF evades the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Is my memory correct? I recall HWRF was on the money last year in forecasting the track of Tomas. If so, here's hoping it is true again this year.

[theweatherwatch]

What are the chances that this system makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard?

To early to tell at this point. First area to be concerned about is the Islands. After that there will be time to worry about a possible US landfall where ever that may be. Appears at this point though that the Bermuda High will shift east allowing 91L to recurve out to sea with out making a Main land US landfall. We shall see though. Still plenty of time for us to track 91L!

[Gustywind]

For our friends in the islands,we have to start preparations from tommorow,as it seems this system will not evade us.

Waouw Cycloneye, that does not sound good if this trend continues. Something to keep an eye.

Especially if you see what GFDL has at the models thread. I already started preparations in anticipation of the last minute rush.

oh yeah a direct hit on Guadeloupe! I see that hope that nothing will happens from this one but things continue to heating up with 91L, it's maybe the early stages of something serious

[floridasun78]

this one could have better chance and don when enter carribbean early this week let see

[floridasun78]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN