WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[StormingB81]

its wobbling to the ne..i may have jinxed it things are bout to pick up in okinawa where yes it is sunny right now..but it is all right below us

[Chacor]

Hourly updates from JMA now as the eye is visible from Japanese radar. (My translations in BOLD BLOCK LETTERS)

台風第2号 (ソングダー) TYPHOON NO. 2 (SONGDA)
平成23年05月28日13時50分 発表 YEAR 2011 MAY 28 13:50 JST (0450 UTC)
<28日13時の実況> SITUATION AT 13 JST 28 MAY (4 UTC)
大きさ -
強さ 強い INTENSITY STRONG
存在地域 石垣島の南東 約50km LOCATION ABOUT 50 KM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA
中心位置 北緯 24度05分(24.1度) CENTRE LOCATION 24.1 NORTH 124.5 EAST
東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 35km/h(18kt) MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS
中心気圧 945hPa CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt) GREATEST WINDS NEAR CENTRE 80 KT
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt) GREATEST GUSTS 115 KT
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 130km(70NM) RADIUS OF 25M/S (STORM FORCE WINDS) 70 NM
15m/s以上の強風域 南東側 440km(240NM) RADIUS OF 15 M/S (30 KT WINDS) 240 NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
北西側 390km(210NM)
<28日14時の推定> FORECAST FOR 14 JST
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 石垣島の東 約50km LOCATION ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA
中心位置 北緯 24度25分(24.4度)
東経 124度40分(124.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 945hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 南東側 440km(240NM)
北西側 390km(210NM)

[Infdidoll]

Okay, NOW it is finally starting to feel like we have a typhoon bearing down on us. Winds have increased dramatically within about the last half hour.

[StormingB81]

Yes they have and loloking at the radar business is really going to start picking up...last couple of hours looks like it has been drifting back east..like i said i think it depends on the wobble what kind of storm we get

[phwxenthusiast]

hope you guys take photos and vids!! provided you're safe of course!

[StormingB81]

military is not allowed to go outside..I cant be like Jim cantore...lol

[phwxenthusiast]

military is not allowed to go outside..I cant be like Jim cantore...lol

haha, okay i understand...

anyway, interesting wind report from Miyakojima (taken from JMA)... i guess the eye passed just north of that, can't wait to see James' videos!!!

[StormingB81]

Yes the last 2 hours though went more NE headed straigh to okinawa..it could be interesting..all the last 4 storms where supposed ot hit us turned at last minute and we got nothing now they say it will be far enough off wont be too bad..be funny if the oppisite happends..not funny but you know what I mean

[oaba09]

Yes the last 2 hours though went more NE headed straigh to okinawa..it could be interesting..all the last 4 storms where supposed ot hit us turned at last minute and we got nothing now they say it will be far enough off wont be too bad..be funny if the oppisite happends..not funny but you know what I mean

Keep us updated on the situation there and most importantly, be safe!

[StormingB81]

I will..It is starting to get really dark now...winds are steadily picking up...

[Infdidoll]

I've got my tripod and video camera all set up...but there really isn't much to film, right now. I don't have any trees to show bending sideways...What I do have is a nothing-but-ocean view so if we get some good waves before it gets too dark here in a few hours, I will get some video. Charging my camera a little more, right now...

[StormingB81]

infidoll...you been seeing this storm..it messing with us..been doing a little more wobble to the NE..wonder how that will factor with winds tonight...if it continues of course

[StormingB81]

latest JTWC warning is out it is bringing it a little closer back to Kadena..

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 24.7N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.1N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.9N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 125.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS PRONOUNCED ACCELERATION AND WEAKENING OF THE STORM
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE TYPHOON HAVE LINKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
CHINA AND DEEPENING. SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE ARE
MERGING WITH UPPER CIRCULATION OF THE STORM AND IMPINGING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS HOWEVER, AS THE
TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY FACILITATING DEVELOPMENT A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS, THE EYE HAS FILLED, AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. A 280614Z 37GHZ TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE 85 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME PASS SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A 280300Z ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA (ROIG). ROIG REPORTED GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 84 KNOTS DURING PASSAGE, WHEN THE STORM WAS TRACKING
ROUGHLY 20 NM TO THE WEST BY SOUTHWEST. TY 04W WILL REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ONCE NORTH OF OKINAWA,
TY 04W WILL ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER VWS SIMULTANEOUS WITH BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(XTT). THE DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH AND VIGOROUS POLAR FRONT JET ARE
GIVING COMPUTER MODELS DIFFICULTY WITH XTT, INDUCING EXCESSIVE
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (E-DCI). THIS IS RESULTING IN THE DYNAMIC
MODELS STEERING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS SHIKOKU AND THE KANSAI REGION OF
HONSHU. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH 12 HOURS,
THEN STAYS RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE E-DCI. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[Infdidoll]

Well....Yet again, this seems pretty uneventful...LOL - Winds started picking up...and now it just doesn't seem like much is going on.

[StormingB81]

I should make a saying..if you want to aviod typhoons comes to Okinawa they either crumble or just turn away

[Typhoon Hunter]

Back at hotel in one piece. Savage conditions on Miyakojima since about 1pm, we got well and truly nailed by the front right quad. Working on some quite sexy footage now!

[StormingB81]

Typhoon Hunter....all that talk of Okinawa this week and it is very quite here I must say..I mean we are close to the 50 knot line so who knows if we may see anything if at all.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 25.6N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 32.3N 132.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 300600UTC 33.3N 137.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Infdidoll]

That's more like it...starting to get some winds now and creepy sounds of things outside knocking around.