ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

which camp are you leaning towards Gatorcane?

Ha....he has been saying recurve from the start....sticking to his guns.

[ronjon]

12z CMC - very plausible solution of a weak system.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031820
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 12 20110803
181030 1654N 07012W 8436 01532 0046 +205 +095 116011 011 033 000 00
181100 1652N 07013W 8437 01534 0045 +207 +097 123011 012 035 000 03
181130 1651N 07014W 8432 01535 0044 +206 +099 143010 012 034 000 03
181200 1650N 07015W 8436 01531 0041 +209 +100 138008 009 026 001 03
181230 1649N 07017W 8438 01528 0044 +202 +100 163008 009 026 000 00
181300 1648N 07018W 8433 01537 0043 +206 +100 168006 008 024 000 03
181330 1648N 07020W 8440 01525 0037 +209 +101 124006 007 024 000 00
181400 1647N 07021W 8433 01532 0038 +209 +101 103007 008 025 000 00
181430 1647N 07023W 8442 01522 0039 +206 +101 095007 007 024 000 00
181500 1647N 07025W 8454 01508 0043 +202 +102 078007 007 024 000 00
181530 1647N 07027W 8464 01502 0047 +199 +102 046011 013 025 000 03
181600 1647N 07029W 8459 01508 0047 +205 +103 036015 016 031 000 03
181630 1648N 07030W 8463 01506 0050 +204 +103 036019 021 031 000 03
181700 1649N 07031W 8454 01518 0049 +205 +104 034019 021 035 000 03
181730 1651N 07031W 8471 01500 0048 +208 +103 033015 017 037 000 03
181800 1652N 07030W 8463 01506 0044 +211 +103 048014 014 039 000 03
181830 1653N 07029W 8474 01503 0047 +211 +102 058012 013 027 001 03
181900 1651N 07027W 8442 01523 0042 +206 +103 055014 015 025 000 00
181930 1650N 07026W 8433 01534 0042 +204 +104 063012 013 024 001 00
182000 1649N 07025W 8437 01529 0040 +208 +103 073010 011 023 000 03
$$
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[northjaxpro]

It appears that the llc is now under the little ball of convection. Am I correct in what I see here?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Yes, convection has seemed to re-fire in and around the LLC for the last couple of hours now. This will definitely help sustain the LLC in the short term. Also, this may be a sign that shear may be lessening a bit as well.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthDadeFish]

1003.7mb extrapolated, lowest thus far. Not dead yet!

[Hurricaneman]

1003.7mb extrapolated, lowest thus far. Not dead yet!

It acually seems to be against all odds strengthening

[gatorcane]

1003.7mb extrapolated, lowest thus far. Not dead yet!

Yeah saw that...hmm,

SAT presentation is looking better by the hour also, shear is lessening, and she is not likely to go over the 10,000FT mountains any longer.

Definitely not dead yet, not by a long shot, in fact I think she is organizing.

[KWT]

Whats quite funny is you can see on the high resolution a jump of the LLC to the WNW almost as soon as the deep convection starts to reform.

Lets see where recon shows...

[mutley]

1003.7mb extrapolated, lowest thus far. Not dead yet!

AMAZING!

[northjaxpro]

Waiting to see what Recon will find out there shortly. It should be very interesting.

[summersquall]

What are the local tv stations saying about this in Florida?

From 850 wftl am (Ft. Lauderdale) http://www.850wftl.com/pages/2230235.ph ... upId=40458

Tropical Storm Emily's Path Pushing Further East
(Miami, FL) -- Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami keep pushing the projected path of Tropical Storm Emily further east. The storm is expected to cut across the island of Hispaniola tonight where high mountains will rob the storm of its strength. Emily will re-intensify as it moves toward the Bahamas late on Thursday. South Florida could feel the outer bands of the system by Friday as the storm is expected to move close to Cape Canaveral before curving up the coast toward the Carolinas.

The radio soundbites are really downplaying it saying that is is highly disorganized, they doubt it will survive the mountains of Hispaniola (50/50 chance) and theyll be watching it over the next 48 hours.

[NDG]

Whats quite funny is you can see on the high resolution a jump of the LLC to the WNW almost as soon as the deep convection starts to reform.

Lets see where recon shows...

Still looks like 16.8N

[KWT]

Rather poor wind return from recon its got to be said, pressure is low though...so its not dead for sure!

The motion is one thing that is going to be very interesting to observe.

Might be a closer call to the S.tip of DR then I first thought due to that blow up.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the models graphic above, what looks to be happening is that you have models splitting into two camps. In the one camp, they send a remnant circulation or very weak, shallow system through Cuba and through the FL Straits into the GOM.

In the other camp, the models keep the system vertically stacked enough so that it feels the weakness, turns north and then eventually northeast through the Bahamas east of Florida.

Emily remains shallow and continues more W, but the more W she goes before vertically stacking will cause the recurve bend down the road to shift more W, just like we are seeing. If Emily ends up going W of Andros going to be hard not to scrape WPB on her way N.

[GCANE]

May end up clearing the peninsula west of Port-Au-Prince and getting to be where Don was last week between Jamaica and Cuba.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031015.jpg

[gatorcane]

Rather poor wind return from recon its got to be said, pressure is low though...so its not dead for sure!

The motion is one thing that is going to be very interesting to observe.

Might be a closer call to the S.tip of DR then I first thought due to that blow up.

I am not seeing a jump north with that convection, looks like mostly a W to WNW heading still.

Unless she just stops and starts moving NW very soon, will miss most of Hispaniola.

[ronjon]

LLC is covered again by convection - some spiral banding starting to occur too. My eyes might be fooling me but the LLC seemed to jog W-NW the last hour or so.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

[Airboy]

Looks likely it will pass between Jamaica and the west coast of Haiti

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031830
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 13 20110803
182030 1647N 07025W 8433 01531 0042 +204 +103 092002 005 023 000 00
182100 1646N 07024W 8437 01526 0032 +218 +103 256007 009 024 000 00
182130 1644N 07023W 8440 01525 0039 +209 +104 245009 009 024 000 00
182200 1643N 07022W 8436 01528 0037 +213 +104 260008 008 025 000 00
182230 1641N 07021W 8436 01532 0039 +211 +102 243010 011 026 000 03
182300 1640N 07020W 8436 01530 0038 +213 +103 240015 015 028 000 00
182330 1639N 07019W 8437 01533 0040 +209 +104 248014 015 028 000 00
182400 1638N 07017W 8438 01531 0046 +203 +104 251015 016 029 000 00
182430 1636N 07016W 8438 01532 0046 +204 +104 235016 017 028 000 00
182500 1635N 07015W 8433 01537 0049 +200 +104 227017 018 028 000 00
182530 1634N 07014W 8435 01536 0051 +199 +104 231020 021 027 000 00
182600 1633N 07012W 8437 01533 0052 +197 +104 231021 022 027 000 00
182630 1632N 07011W 8436 01536 0055 +195 +104 228022 023 027 000 00
182700 1632N 07011W 8436 01536 0055 +194 +104 227022 023 027 000 03
182730 1630N 07009W 8437 01534 0056 +193 +104 222022 022 027 000 00
182800 1628N 07007W 8436 01536 0060 +187 +103 222021 022 027 000 00
182830 1627N 07006W 8436 01537 0064 +182 +102 219021 021 026 000 00
182900 1626N 07005W 8438 01535 0063 +185 +102 215020 020 027 000 00
182930 1625N 07004W 8433 01541 0064 +185 +100 213021 021 027 000 03
183000 1624N 07003W 8436 01540 0064 +186 +100 212021 021 030 000 00
$$
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