ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

Just a note...GE graphics are coming in a little slower tonight...patience. lol

[Brent]

[viberama]

What responsibility the NHC has with millions of people in SFL less than 200 miles away from catastrophy and no warnings, that's confidence! Sitting in Hobe Sound you know there is a storm out there!

Their weather forecasting skills and the science and technology that goes into it is simply amazing.

[Dave]

Just a note, GE is updating very slowly right now...to the point of closing the program and restarting it on each picture. As soon as I get it I'll get it on here...that server must be getting hit 10x harder tonight.

[Steve H.]

Not always. But this is a powerful and pretty symmetrical storm. Any westward jog from the forecast points would change the whole outcome. Probably doesn't want to put the political/bureaucratic machine into motion.

[maryellen40]

Speaking of Andrew, Bryan Norcross on his Facebook page posted the following:

"Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party."

Sorry if this has been posted.

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

[artist]

duplicate

[MGC]

TWC need to put Cantore on Narragansett Bay so he can watch the surge come in. Perhaps the crew won't park the satellite truck so close to the beach this time......MGC

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250307
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 37 20110825
025800 2406N 07604W 6970 02953 9823 +094 //// 037081 083 067 013 01
025830 2405N 07603W 6978 02938 9829 +083 //// 035082 084 068 022 01
025900 2403N 07602W 6933 02973 //// +080 //// 045079 090 070 014 01
025930 2402N 07600W 6989 02894 //// +101 //// 044062 063 071 007 01
030000 2401N 07559W 6967 02913 9743 +122 //// 037062 063 070 004 01
030030 2400N 07558W 6974 02896 9731 +124 +121 036062 063 071 002 00
030100 2359N 07556W 6966 02898 9715 +131 +117 035061 061 070 000 03
030130 2357N 07555W 6967 02887 9699 +138 +107 033062 062 067 001 03
030200 2357N 07553W 6973 02866 9681 +143 +104 034065 067 067 000 03
030230 2356N 07552W 6966 02863 9667 +141 +119 031064 066 061 000 03
030300 2355N 07550W 6963 02853 9652 +140 +126 033061 063 060 000 03
030330 2354N 07548W 6971 02826 9628 +146 +129 029063 065 059 001 03
030400 2353N 07547W 6970 02811 9599 +158 +121 025062 064 061 004 00
030430 2352N 07545W 6964 02797 9577 +156 +136 024059 061 062 006 00
030500 2351N 07543W 6970 02773 9578 +137 +134 024049 051 049 003 00
030530 2351N 07542W 6970 02760 9547 +152 +129 021044 046 040 002 00
030600 2350N 07540W 6965 02745 9532 +150 +133 009030 034 032 001 03
030630 2350N 07538W 6973 02730 9519 +151 +133 356018 021 026 001 03
030700 2350N 07536W 6963 02732 9515 +147 +130 324006 010 021 002 03
030730 2351N 07534W 6968 02721 9512 +146 +128 171008 012 020 000 00
$$

[umguy]

If they put up a warning. Think of of all the parts that start moving. Emergency services moblize. All this at a cost. That's the reason I believe nothing ever came.

[CrazyC83]

A precautionary TS Watch is probably not warranted due to the impact such would bring to many in Florida. But all models go near the Outer Banks, and between Cape Cod and NYC.

[Meteorcane]

What responsibility the NHC has with millions of people in SFL less than 200 miles away from catastrophy and no warnings, that's confidence! Sitting in Hobe Sound you know there is a storm out there!

Their weather forecasting skills and the science and technology that goes into it is simply amazing.

Indeed I volunteered at a local NWS office this summer and was amazed by the massive amounts of technology/expertise there, I can only imagine that is magnified at the NHC.

[Texas Snowman]

Pressure at 952 mb.

I think Irene is going to bomb out in the next 24 hours.

Going to be an intense ride for the Outer Banks of NC.

[drezee]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

[SeminoleWind]

Speaking of Andrew, Bryan Norcross on his Facebook page posted the following:

"Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party."

Sorry if this has been posted.

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

don't worry they will figure out how serious it is when their feet start getting wet.

[clfenwi]

I would have dropped the intensity at the advisory. Recon only supports Category 2 right now, I would have put it at 90 kt.

Concur, though I probably would have gone 95 knots with the old "and this may be generous" line. Not sure what he means saying "I will wait for the plane to finish sampling the hurricane before reducing the winds a little bit". Does he mean, wait until the end of the mission? Plane had already completed one full pattern when he wrote this.

[MGC]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.[/quote]


My son in Chesapeake Va says it is business as usual in the Hampton Roads area. I guess since the track has been shifted a bit east they think they are in the clear......MGC

Irene is in a EWRC and the winds should die down a bit and the CP should rise a bit. The old eyewall will erode like it is doing now and once the outer eyewall will eventually begin to contract and the hurricane will intensify. I just wonder how big the new eye will be......MGC

[Dave]

Current

[CronkPSU]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

if a poster did that we would call it -removed-

[ConvergenceZone]

Did the NHC move the 11:00 track just a tiny bit west? It just seems closer to land for some reason....

edit: nevermind, I looked at the track at wunderground.com and it's the same as it was the last time....