ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Canelaw99]

Jp-honestly, I generally prefer Max Mayfield on 10, or David Bernard on 4. I've never been a big fan of wsvn overall....as for his respect in the met field, I have no clue....just thought it was an interesting way of looking at a storm and the turning.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250327
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 39 20110825
031800 2329N 07509W 6969 02944 9807 +100 //// 209088 088 063 005 01
031830 2328N 07508W 6969 02950 9819 +097 //// 210085 086 061 007 01
031900 2327N 07507W 6968 02958 9824 +100 //// 210081 081 063 005 05
031930 2326N 07505W 6967 02970 9832 +099 +098 210080 081 061 004 00
032000 2325N 07504W 6965 02983 9842 +100 +087 209081 082 060 002 03
032030 2324N 07503W 6969 02980 9852 +097 +088 210080 080 061 002 00
032100 2323N 07502W 6966 02990 9858 +098 +086 211077 078 060 003 03
032130 2322N 07501W 6970 02992 9866 +096 +085 212076 077 058 003 03
032200 2320N 07500W 6967 03000 9869 +100 +081 212074 075 058 002 00
032230 2319N 07459W 6966 03005 9876 +097 +078 214070 071 061 006 00
032300 2318N 07458W 6966 03009 9880 +093 +085 217066 069 066 007 05
032330 2317N 07456W 6975 03002 9890 +093 //// 220069 072 067 007 01
032400 2316N 07455W 6965 03021 9898 +089 //// 220075 076 066 010 05
032430 2315N 07454W 6973 03018 //// +082 //// 218074 075 066 012 01
032500 2313N 07453W 6974 03017 //// +078 //// 221071 076 063 015 05
032530 2312N 07452W 6968 03028 //// +072 //// 222067 069 064 023 01
032600 2311N 07450W 6970 03027 //// +069 //// 215072 073 060 026 01
032630 2310N 07449W 6974 03028 //// +070 //// 215073 074 062 025 05
032700 2309N 07448W 6965 03043 //// +067 //// 216077 078 060 016 05
032730 2308N 07447W 6975 03035 //// +076 //// 218073 075 060 010 01
$$

[cpdaman]

Question....when looking at the steering map, which option is the correct/best for this storm?

believe this one is

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[umguy]

Jp-honestly, I generally prefer Max Mayfield on 10, or David Bernard on 4. I've never been a big fan of wsvn overall....as for his respect in the met field, I have no clue....just thought it was an interesting way of looking at a storm and the turning.

He's ok. I prefer him over David Bernard.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

The issuing of watches and warnings is sometimes subjective. Just because there is the "possibility" of TS force wind, doesn't necessitate a watch. For example, in SFL we can count on gale force winds nearly every day in thunderstorms, along with terrible lightning but they hardly ever issue "severe thunderstorm warnings". Also the storm is not perfectly symmetrical. The 255 mile radius is likely the furthest extent, while winds on the west side might extend only 100 miles out. I'm speaking generally here, I haven't examined the windfields of this particular storm.

[mf_dolphin]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

yeah I saw that also, should get another fix soon but

They average fixes over several center fixes and not the last 2 to get an average motion. That way they smooth out variations caused by weebles and woobles.

[Dave]

[CronkPSU]

and just like that, it stair stepped north the past half hour...will see on the 3:15 frame

[drezee]

The NHC just did something interesting...They have it moving NE 315...and said the center is at 23.8N 75.4W
The last recon fix was 23.62N 75.3W. It would have had to move at 330 to hit that point from the last recon fix...

OK, recon just came back with the latest fix.

23.83N 75.58W

Distance between

N Latitude 23 37 0.00, W Longitude 75 18 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 23 50 0.00, W Longitude 75 35 0.00 (Point 2)



37.556 kilometers; 23.336 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 309.93°

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Kinda weird. Avila just said that tropical storm force winds extend out to 255 miles out from the center, but the storm should stay 200-250 miles off the Florida east coast. Would that not warrant a TS watch on the EC of Central FL? Particularly since it is growing by the hour?

i believe he means 255 in the NE quad...they usually mentioin the quad that has furthest expansion NW quad is prolly more like 175 or so (guessing)

but either way i think a tropical storm watch would be the right thing to do.....and not really a diff. decision...with little to lose

The issuance of watches and warnings costs money. Local governments have to do some actions. WIth no real "danger" - the real cost is that a watch might cause some to become desensitized to warnings where there is some real danger. I'm just playing devil's advocate here btw. Oh and we do have TS watches for the waters off the EC of Florida here.

[tailgater]

Starting to pick up on outer rainbands on the Miami long range radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250337
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 40 20110825
032800 2307N 07446W 6968 03050 //// +082 //// 216071 073 057 013 01
032830 2305N 07445W 6966 03057 //// +069 //// 207072 073 057 015 05
032900 2304N 07443W 6967 03055 //// +059 //// 205072 075 054 012 05
032930 2303N 07442W 6967 03062 //// +058 //// 205074 074 052 009 01
033000 2302N 07441W 6972 03057 9972 +074 //// 204074 074 054 008 05
033030 2301N 07440W 6967 03067 9980 +070 //// 206073 073 051 006 01
033100 2300N 07439W 6967 03067 9974 +078 //// 205071 072 050 007 01
033130 2259N 07438W 6968 03070 9969 +084 +083 204071 071 049 006 00
033200 2258N 07437W 6967 03078 9972 +084 +078 204071 071 049 007 03
033230 2257N 07436W 6967 03076 9981 +079 //// 205070 070 050 006 01
033300 2256N 07435W 6966 03079 9976 +085 +079 207070 070 048 007 00
033330 2255N 07434W 6969 03077 9972 +090 +075 211070 071 050 013 00
033400 2254N 07432W 6961 03091 9976 +085 +085 212062 065 054 010 05
033430 2252N 07431W 6964 03088 9988 +071 //// 219068 073 053 012 01
033500 2251N 07430W 6963 03089 //// +061 //// 216069 072 051 018 01
033530 2250N 07429W 6964 03091 //// +061 //// 216071 074 050 017 01
033600 2249N 07428W 6968 03091 //// +054 //// 205063 065 049 020 05
033630 2248N 07427W 6967 03087 //// +064 //// 206062 066 051 031 05
033700 2247N 07426W 6978 03068 //// +056 //// 205069 070 051 021 05
033730 2246N 07424W 6964 03094 //// +058 //// 210069 072 049 012 01
$$

[drezee]

Motion over last 10 hours..

Distance between

N Latitude 22 33 0.00, W Longitude 74 9 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 23 50 0.00, W Longitude 75 35 0.00 (Point 2)



204.282 kilometers; 126.935 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 314.53°

Almost perfectly NW...

[Steve H.]

But you're missing the point, since they have TS warnings since this afternoon for 20 miles off the coast, they must take the fact that either winds are going to be within that window on the west side into consideration or not. obviously they did.

[Janie2006]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

I have family in Va right now doing a job for GOV. Told most they talk to there aren't taking this seriously because the forecasters early on has Irene in Ga, then SC now NC. All they talk with expect this is media hype and not believing this is going to effect any US soil. Goes to concur earlier posts by someone I read here that predictions made more than 3 days out are having a very harmful effect with citizen trust in forecasters.

Those who say such things come to bitterly regret doing so sooner or later. The issue isn't with the cone of uncertainty, it's a case of people believing what they want to believe....at their peril.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

My son in Chesapeake Va says it is business as usual in the Hampton Roads area. I guess since the track has been shifted a bit east they think they are in the clear......MGC

Irene is in a EWRC and the winds should die down a bit and the CP should rise a bit. The old eyewall will erode like it is doing now and once the outer eyewall will eventually begin to contract and the hurricane will intensify. I just wonder how big the new eye will be......MGC[/quote]

Is this the Charley paradox at work? That is - "even though we are in the cone, the storm is going to hit Tampa, so we in Port Charlotte are just fine"?

From wikipedia:

National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable. In addition, he also stated that residents of Port Charlotte had ample warning, as a hurricane warning had been issued for the landfall area 23 hours before, and a hurricane watch had existed for 35 hours.[

[Lutrastorm]

I'm not sure which to stress over most... I have a house on Eleuthera, Bahamas; it looks like we'll get a direct hit from the eyewall some time tomorrow. The house is 60 feet above sea level with storm shutters all around and buillt with hurricanes in mind. Floyd was fresh in our minds when we built Rock Steady so it's a bit of a bunker. Not much I can do about it till I hear a damage report.

Now, my other point of concern is my primary home on the Delaware coast (about 4 miles inland). This house is only 14 feet above sea level and surrounded by lots of tall trees. This area is usually very "safe" from storms by virtue of geography. We're tucked back in relationship to the Outer Banks, but this time it looks like geography won't work for us. This area is in one of the worst areas to try to evacuate because of the fact that we're on a peninsula and there are only 3 true routes out. No evacs ordered at this time, but it will be a cluster if one is issued. A jog here or there will make all the difference in how bad winds get here....

Guess I'll have a few sleepless nights...

[KBBOCA]

Wow, that is an incredible picture posted earlier - not only the awesome shot of Irene, but it shows so clearly the massive population centers that she has in her sights... basically she's aiming for the huge cluster of lights in the mid-atlantic - Northeast. This shows just how densely populated these areas are. Wow. So many people will likely be affected.

I'm from North Jersey originally and am visiting friends in the area. I may be actually experiencing Irene first hand... though I'm thankful it looks like my house in FL will be spared.

Just pulling up and IR shot and man it's incredible to have such a large cane right of the SFL coastline how lucky we are to have dodged yet another bullet. My prayers go out to everyone in this path of this storm.

[Dave]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The only reason I bring this up is because there is currently a tropical there is a tropical storm warning since this afternoon for the Atlantic waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet from 20 to 60 NM off the coast. That was issued when the Storm had Tropical storm winds from the center at 205 miles. Now its 255 miles. Logic please?

This makes perfect sense. The marine warning is to alert drunk captains that its unsafe to travel dead east to the Bahamas from Fort Lauderdale (J/K most mariners are well aware of the weather). TS force windows only extend about 100 miles to the west, (see the advisory) and thats not barely halfway across the expected closest approach to FL.

The 255 mile radius is in the NE quad. Also - it isn't symmetrical, SO you might have 1 small region that gets a 35MPH wind at 255 miles to the NE.

From every advisory ever released by the NHC in recent memory:

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.