ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
06 GMT 08/20/11 14.3N 53.0W 30 1007 Invest
12 GMT 08/20/11 14.3N 54.9W 30 1007 Invest

[Frank2]

I'm still sticking with yesterday's thoughts about that TUTT/ULL feature to it's west, and as the trough digs southward towards Florida that will tighten up the pressure pattern even more, so not the best environment for development, thankfully...

Looking at it on the WV loop, compared to Harvey, it has not yet established any decent outflow pattern so time will tell (right now more of a bursting seen than anything else), though as with past systems this season if it tracks across the larger islands then there is certainly less chance of it developing...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

[robbielyn]

i for one if i have to wish it goes somewhere besides out to sea which i dont think is going to happen, i'd be content with a central gulf vs west coast of fl we havent had one here in many many years and i'd like to keep it that way. i dont wish it towards no or ms but appalach ok if need be my son lives in pc so rather have him on the west side of the eye. hope it doesnt pan out and gets disrupted by mountains and skirt s fl with eye of shore or better yet go to yucatan as a undev system and head towards texas with some much needed rain. sorry appal i know you dont want it either. whats funny is usually when fl is target it goes out to sea so lets hope so.

[robbielyn]

I'm still sticking with yesterday's thoughts about that TUTT/ULL feature to it's west, and as the trough digs southward towards Florida that will tighten up the pressure pattern even more, so not the best environment for development, thankfully...

Looking at it on the WV loop, compared to Harvey, it has not yet established any decent outflow pattern so time will tell (right now more of a bursting seen than anything else), though as with past systems this season if it tracks across the larger islands then there is certainly less chance of it developing...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

For once frank i hope you are right lol. hitting a little to close to home for me.

[PauleinHouston]

A bit cluttered, but conv/diverg and dlm steering layer...


By paulinhouston at 2011-08-20

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look a bit closer at the WV floater, you can see a small upper level low spinning just to SW of 97L. This is both shearing it a little, and increasing outflow a little. It will be interesting to see how this interaction unfolds. Sometimes, these ULLs drop south and act as a catalyst to vent the storm and get them spinning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Adoquín]

Anyone who can tell whether it is on a steady forward course or slowing down. Water temps increase west of 55w

[Ivanhater]

WINDSAT would suggest something trying to close off to the south

[Gustywind]

97L approaching the islands...

[indian]

WINDSAT would suggest something trying to close off to the south

if thats the case would that affect the models?

[Kory]

97L approaching the islands...

Lets see if any of the islands report west winds.

[NDG]

I don't see evidence of a closed LLC this morning. May not happen until 97L gets closer to the islands later tonight or tomorrow morning, the story so far this season.

[Frank2]

I don't see evidence of a closed LLC this morning. May not happen until 97L gets closer to the islands later tonight or tomorrow morning, the story so far this season.

Yes, I agree - thankfully so far this system is very similar to the past few that had everyone jumping up and down at first glance but were proved to be less than expected...

I was just looking at the WV again, and what still jumps out at me is the TUTT/LLC feature - it's narrowing a bit but has been there for a number of days, and the trough dropping SE into Florida and the Bahamas will only tighten things up even more, so not the best environment for 97L...

Frank

[ROCK]

such a broad low and really moving fast.....might be a reason the GFDL doesnt develope it for like 3 runs in a row now....boy there sure going to be a lot of GFS haters if this doesnt go off..... I see the 6z GFS likes to hammer SFL some more....

[Frank2]

The GFDL is usually a dependable model, that's for sure - Dr. Ooyama spent many long days working on it during his lifetime...

Frank

[Portastorm]

The GFDL is usually a dependable model, that's for sure - Dr. Ooyama spent many long days working on it during his lifetime...

Frank

Through 72 hours, that is true. Beyond that time frame it loses its edge over the others. Then again ... I'm not sure I would want to gamble life and property on any computer model beyond 72 hours. JMHO.

[gatorcane]

I don't see evidence of a closed LLC this morning. May not happen until 97L gets closer to the islands later tonight or tomorrow morning, the story so far this season.

Yes, I agree - thankfully so far this system is very similar to the past few that had everyone jumping up and down at first glance but were proved to be less than expected...

I was just looking at the WV again, and what still jumps out at me is the TUTT/LLC feature - it's narrowing a bit but has been there for a number of days, and the trough dropping SE into Florida and the Bahamas will only tighten things up even more, so not the best environment for 97L...

Frank

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Hi folks, took a look at things again this morning. Frank unfortunately that TUTT low is weakening and narrowing. I don't think it is going to induce enough shear to impact this system ESPECIALLY since the system is likely going to track south of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico and not north of it, will the shear is a bit higher (but still not that bad).

Looking at the floaters, I see a developing system here and it continues to organize. Unfortunatly I don't think it will be like the ones a few weeks ago that took days and day to develop. This one has alot more convection, good spin, excellent upper-level conditions, less dry air, climatology on its side, among other things.

Should be Irene within the next 24-48 hours. What we can hope for is that land interaction keeps it at check but the intensity forecast is going to be highly uncertain needless to say. I don't like how the GFS/ECMWF/FIM models are bombing this out on its approach to the SE GOM / South Florida area.

[dwsqos2]

Saying the GFDL is a good intensity model is like saying that I have attractive bowel movements. Seriously, it underforecast Harvey by about 30 knots in the less than 24 hour range. And it tends to overdevelop storms with only slightly less frequency than the HWRF. It does have some track skill.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cpdaman]

Looks like the path may keep ir....ehhh this disturbance from getting too powerful...hisp. and cuba look to be likely destinations.i would think tampa to cent-gulf has highest shot for anything more than a cat 1 at this time. While most scenarios involving s fl would be cat 1 or less. Just my opinion

[Aric Dunn]

IT is quite evident that the LLC is developing right near or over 15n and 56N. Recon is likely to find a closed low by the time they get there