ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Well isn't that the understatement of the year, LOL! The Gulfstream IV sampling flight is underway and should be completed for the 00z runs of the models so we shall see.

I would have to venture a guess that the definition of "SOON" would be the course of the next 6 to 12 hours. It would not suprise me to see South Florida have some watches go up by 11:00AM tomorrow morning, depending on the condition of Emily at that time.

SFT

[artist]

last vortex
16 deg 49 min N
070 deg 29 min W
newest vortex
16 deg 52 min N
070 deg 32 min W

[KWT]

Long term motion still around the 280 mark, it has increased a little though from the 275 it was probably running earlier...

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like its slowed right down...

Still no VDM from the last pass through, I guess they missed the center despite dropping a dropsonde?

If they did hit the center, thats a big shift NW, almost NNW compared to the previous pass...will have to wait and see what the next pass through shows...

My gut is the system is starting its WNW track...convection to the north probably helping to set this off...

its also most likely in response to the convection that built up.. that love to be pulled back to that.. happened numerous times with this system.

or it could be the turn.... who knows with this thing..

[Bobo2000]

Wow maybe need to lower the intensity.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

last vortex
16 deg 49 min N
070 deg 29 min W
newest vortex
16 deg 52 min N
070 deg 32 min W

IF the track was to be extrapolated it'd still miss the S.tip of DR, but it'd be a close call...

[stormhunter7]

Three fixes show a more NW motion now from AFRecon.

Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 20:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°52'N 70°32'W (16.8667N 70.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 119 miles (192 km) to the SSW (201°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,462m (4,797ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)

[Blown Away]

NHC left than right of TVCN (Gray Line)?

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032120
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 30 20110803
211030 1613N 06928W 8427 01561 0100 +150 +056 180030 032 049 014 00
211100 1615N 06928W 8429 01555 0096 +154 +057 181031 033 044 012 00
211130 1617N 06928W 8429 01556 0094 +158 +058 188030 032 038 011 00
211200 1619N 06928W 8432 01553 0097 +153 +059 184033 035 038 009 00
211230 1621N 06928W 8421 01565 0105 +139 +060 172038 039 038 018 03
211300 1623N 06928W 8440 01544 0103 +141 +061 175032 037 048 028 00
211330 1625N 06929W 8419 01566 0100 +145 +061 188029 031 044 031 03
211400 1626N 06929W 8431 01554 0100 +147 +061 182027 030 047 019 03
211430 1628N 06929W 8430 01555 0100 +148 +060 188027 028 040 015 03
211500 1630N 06929W 8426 01563 0100 +153 +060 191029 035 049 025 00
211530 1632N 06929W 8446 01542 0093 +165 +060 178039 040 044 013 03
211600 1634N 06929W 8423 01564 0091 +168 +058 187035 036 032 007 00
211630 1636N 06930W 8432 01558 0097 +163 +057 185035 037 033 007 00
211700 1638N 06930W 8426 01561 0096 +161 +057 184034 035 033 007 00
211730 1640N 06930W 8437 01552 0108 +143 +058 183035 035 034 008 00
211800 1642N 06930W 8425 01563 0092 +166 +058 179034 035 035 005 00
211830 1644N 06930W 8430 01559 0096 +164 +058 176033 034 033 003 00
211900 1646N 06930W 8425 01564 0095 +163 +059 173033 033 034 002 00
211930 1648N 06930W 8426 01564 0094 +166 +060 168035 035 034 001 00
212000 1650N 06931W 8428 01563 0093 +166 +061 165036 037 035 001 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Yeah quite hard to argue that the short term motion isn't close to the NW...it also fits with the system slowing right now as well...

Think we have our turn folks, heading towards Haiti, if it keeps this convective set-up then its going to hammer PaP fairly hard with heavy rain.

EVery degree west will make a difference because of the lay of the land...

[T'Bonz]

I was expecting a slight shift to the west, not the east. That was unexpected.

[KWT]

Ha yep BA!

Bottom line is this system will be close enough that to florida that its going to need watching right to the last hour. Depending on how reorgansied it can become Andros Islands will get a fairly good whack as well...

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

need to wait and see what happens with motion once it settles into the convection... or if it dies again.. do believe it is a convective burst cyclonic loop. couple more passes would be good to see what its doing..one more wont be enough,.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah quite hard to argue that the short term motion isn't close to the NW...it also fits with the system slowing right now as well...

Think we have our turn folks, heading towards Haiti, if it keeps this convective set-up then its going to hammer PaP fairly hard with heavy rain.

EVery degree west will make a difference because of the lay of the land...

so the turns' finally happening? It's about time! I think it was driving us all crazy

[SouthFLTropics]

She's gonna try and shoot the gap between Haiti and Cuba. What a tricky situation all the way around. Prayers are with everyone in Haiti that is going to have to deal with the rainfall and mudslides.

SFT

[PTPatrick]

whataya know? 18z NAM splits the midlevel and lower level cyclone. One goes the NHC route off florida, the other goes along Cubas south coast and seems to develop more than the northern piece...gonna be interesting...

[Blown Away]

IMO, the 00z models will provide more clarity once the get upper air data N of Emily.

[gatorcane]

Look at this 5-day cone animated loop:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[KWT]

need to wait and see what happens with motion once it settles into the convection... or if it dies again.. do believe it is a convective burst cyclonic loop. couple more passes would be good to see what its doing..one more wont be enough,.

Yep need more passes needed as per normal, I suspect the 330 motion between the 2nd and 3rd was just a wobble but at this stage such wobbles could make it a very close pass for the far south of DR...esp as thats where the 4-6000ft mountions begin...