ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

Here are 3 videos of Emily after its trip in Martinica.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxXa6ddQRYs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEuN6NYCph4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BamyCrzaOrs

[vbhoutex]

Anybody have the latest weather conditions in DR?

We have a few members in the DR and Haiti. I was hoping they might come online and report.

[Bocadude85]

Do you guys mind posting a link? All my favorites were accidentaly deleted.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 032228
XXAA 53228 99169 70705 04460 99003 27407 21015 00023 27406 21016
92713 24012 21011 85455 22443 19504 88999 77999
31313 09608 82201
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 1694N07049W 2202 MBL WND 21015 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21
011 002843 WL150 21017 084 REL 1693N07049W 220109 SPG 1694N07049W
220251 =
XXBB 53228 99169 70705 04460 00003 27407 11935 24205 22850 22443
33843 21864
21212 00003 21015 11993 21019 22972 21013 33933 20011 44900 21511
55896 19510 66857 18505 77843 20503
31313 09608 82201
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 1694N07049W 2202 MBL WND 21015 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21
011 002843 WL150 21017 084 REL 1693N07049W 220109 SPG 1694N07049W
220251 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 22:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 18

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 70.5W
Location: 116 miles (187 km) to the SSW (200°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F) 210° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph)
1000mb 23m (75 ft) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 210° (from the SSW) 16 knots (18 mph)
925mb 713m (2,339 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 210° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 1,455m (4,774 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F) 195° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:01Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.94N 70.49W
Splash Time: 22:02Z

Release Location: 16.93N 70.49W View map)
Release Time: 22:01:09Z

Splash Location: 16.94N 70.49W (
Splash Time: 22:02:51Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1002mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 17 knots (20 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1003mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F)
935mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F)
843mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 210° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph)
993mb 210° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
972mb 210° (from the SSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
933mb 200° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
900mb 215° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
896mb 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
857mb 185° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)
843mb 205° (from the SSW) 3 knots (3 mph)




[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 032230
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/22:01:00Z
B. 16 deg 57 min N
070 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1460 m
D. 36 kt
E. 038 deg 45 nm
F. 136 deg 37 kt
G. 040 deg 54 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 21:10:00Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 22:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 22:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°57'N 70°29'W (16.95N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (181 km) to the SSW (200°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,460m (4,790ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 37kts (From the SE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 21:10:00Z

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032230
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 37 20110803
222030 1612N 07114W 8432 01555 0074 +190 +096 332011 011 015 000 00
222100 1610N 07116W 8426 01562 0074 +190 +096 339011 011 016 000 00
222130 1609N 07117W 8428 01560 0076 +189 +096 339011 011 016 000 00
222200 1608N 07118W 8432 01556 0074 +190 +096 343009 010 016 000 00
222230 1607N 07120W 8429 01559 0075 +188 +096 348009 010 015 000 00
222300 1606N 07121W 8425 01563 0076 +189 +096 342009 009 013 000 00
222330 1605N 07122W 8428 01561 0075 +190 +095 340010 011 013 000 00
222400 1603N 07123W 8426 01562 0074 +193 +095 345011 011 012 000 00
222430 1602N 07125W 8432 01558 0074 +193 +096 346012 013 014 000 00
222500 1601N 07126W 8428 01563 0073 +195 +096 347012 012 012 001 00
222530 1600N 07127W 8428 01560 0074 +195 +096 346011 012 011 000 00
222600 1559N 07128W 8429 01558 0075 +193 +096 349011 011 012 000 00
222630 1558N 07130W 8429 01561 0078 +190 +096 350009 010 009 000 03
222700 1556N 07130W 8425 01568 0080 +190 +097 339008 008 /// /// 03
222730 1556N 07128W 8429 01560 0079 +187 +097 324007 007 010 000 03
222800 1556N 07127W 8426 01564 0078 +190 +096 329008 008 012 001 00
222830 1556N 07125W 8429 01560 0077 +190 +096 320008 008 014 000 00
222900 1556N 07123W 8428 01562 0079 +188 +096 324008 008 013 000 03
222930 1556N 07121W 8429 01561 0080 +186 +096 324007 007 014 000 00
223000 1556N 07120W 8430 01559 0079 +188 +096 331007 008 014 000 00
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Anybody have the latest weather conditions in DR?

We have a few members in the DR and Haiti. I was hoping they might come online and report.

Ok thanks, let's hope before possible poweroutages due to the deterioration of weather. I found that on the precious weather site of Stormcarib.com.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/domrep.shtml

Emily update
By Guillermo Serra <gaquiles at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2011 18:12:45 -0400

Good evening.

So far everything is in relative calm, the storm has changed it course in a way that has kept the wind core just to the south part, scratching the coats of Peravia province, so if something is interesting for report, should come from a correspondent in the southwest region, because Distrito Nacional is quite, with no wind, just a few showers of short duration during the morning and earlier in the afternoon. Thank God.

High tide on the coast, nothing unusual there, our coasts consists on high cliffs so when wave crashes produces a spectacular view for the curious disrespectful who dare to stay close. You can this youtube video from user at RDInaguantable (http://youtu.be/WcSNMonAxUY).

I will attach a picture of how the conditions were by 2pm earlier during my way back home from work.

Stay tuned...
Video:rarrow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcSNMonA ... e=youtu.be

[Dave]

[AJC3]

The center is just meandering around down there. I think its getting tugged at by the deep convection just to the east.

exactly.. the fix looks like 16.52 again.. same as last pass.. thats where lowest pressure was at..
the overall motion of the system is still west.. the core can wobble like a top within the our circ..

I think the wind was 211/14 there, which would imply the center is a little to the WNW of there, which makes perfect sense.

And...of course the center fix is .05 north and .01 EAST of that point. Guess this implies some reorganization is ongoing.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST
TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A
TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE
STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

Emily building some convection near the LLC, looking better IMO. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032240
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 38 20110803
223030 1556N 07118W 8429 01560 0077 +189 +095 317008 008 012 000 00
223100 1556N 07116W 8429 01559 0076 +190 +095 319008 009 011 000 00
223130 1556N 07114W 8427 01563 0076 +190 +096 324009 009 012 000 00
223200 1556N 07113W 8428 01560 0076 +190 +096 293008 008 011 000 00
223230 1556N 07111W 8429 01559 0077 +189 +096 260009 009 011 000 00
223300 1556N 07109W 8428 01561 0077 +188 +096 265008 009 013 001 00
223330 1556N 07107W 8429 01559 0077 +187 +096 264009 009 012 000 00
223400 1557N 07105W 8429 01560 0077 +190 +096 266010 011 012 000 00
223430 1557N 07104W 8430 01559 0075 +190 +096 254012 013 014 000 00
223500 1557N 07102W 8426 01563 0077 +190 +096 237012 013 012 000 00
223530 1557N 07100W 8428 01561 0077 +186 +096 234012 012 014 000 00
223600 1557N 07058W 8429 01559 0079 +185 +096 233012 012 014 000 00
223630 1557N 07056W 8429 01560 0080 +185 +096 233012 012 013 000 00
223700 1557N 07055W 8428 01561 0081 +181 +096 234012 012 014 000 00
223730 1557N 07053W 8429 01561 0082 +180 +096 233011 011 015 000 00
223800 1557N 07051W 8426 01563 0081 +183 +096 233013 014 015 000 00
223830 1557N 07049W 8429 01560 0081 +185 +095 234013 014 015 000 00
223900 1557N 07047W 8429 01561 0080 +185 +095 231014 015 015 000 00
223930 1557N 07046W 8429 01560 0081 +182 +096 230016 016 016 000 00
224000 1557N 07044W 8429 01559 0080 +182 +096 229017 017 016 000 00
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST
TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A
TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE
STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

this far out??? we are less than 60 hours out from it reaching Florida according to the NHC projections

[Aric Dunn]

exactly.. the fix looks like 16.52 again.. same as last pass.. thats where lowest pressure was at..
the overall motion of the system is still west.. the core can wobble like a top within the our circ..

I think the wind was 211/14 there, which would imply the center is a little to the WNW of there, which makes perfect sense.

And...of course the center fix is .05 north and .01 EAST of that point. Guess this implies some reorganization is ongoing.

Yep I saw the plane turn sharply.. center being pulled back to convection..

[Blown Away]

Emily still looks to moving W or just N of due W.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps up the east coast of florida.. has a closed system...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[CronkPSU]

does that make it more likely to RI if it moves into that convection? also gives it a better chance to go over Hispanola/DR?

[Blown Away]

latest GFS heading for the KEys..

Huh, GFS shifted from Bahamas to Keys?

[Dave]