ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AJC3]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST
TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A
TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE
STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

this far out??? we are less than 60 hours out from it reaching Florida according to the NHC projections

Yes, this far out. We're talking about a TC that has had a history of intensity issues with respect to shear, dry air and land interaction, and has been consistently moving left of the forecast track, yet is forecast to be in the midst of a recurve while it's moving near both the latitude and longitude of the Florida east coast.

How can forecast confidence be anything BUT low?

[AdamFirst]

Is the shear still a problem?

[Blown Away]

Yes, this far out. We're talking about a TC that has had a history of intensity issues with respect to shear, dry air and land interaction, and has been consistently moving left of the forecast track, yet is forecast to be in the midst of a recurve while it's moving near both the latitude and longitude of the Florida east coast. How can forecast confidence be anything BUT low?

So w/ Emily possibly not moving over mainland Hispaniola, do you think the NHC may bump up the intensity forecast?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032250
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 39 20110803
224030 1557N 07042W 8428 01560 0081 +185 +096 232017 017 017 000 00
224100 1557N 07040W 8429 01559 0079 +187 +095 235016 017 018 000 00
224130 1557N 07038W 8426 01564 0076 +190 +096 234015 016 018 000 00
224200 1557N 07036W 8429 01561 0078 +190 +096 231016 016 018 001 00
224230 1558N 07035W 8429 01560 0078 +189 +097 232016 017 018 001 00
224300 1557N 07033W 8438 01555 0085 +181 +097 232018 019 017 001 03
224330 1556N 07032W 8428 01566 0088 +178 +097 237016 017 /// /// 03
224400 1555N 07033W 8433 01562 0090 +180 +096 228014 014 /// /// 03
224430 1557N 07034W 8420 01571 0084 +182 +096 223016 017 023 000 03
224500 1558N 07033W 8430 01560 0081 +186 +096 224015 016 021 000 03
224530 1600N 07033W 8428 01561 0082 +182 +095 223017 018 020 001 00
224600 1602N 07033W 8430 01558 0080 +183 +095 222017 018 019 001 00
224630 1604N 07033W 8429 01560 0078 +187 +095 223018 018 022 000 00
224700 1606N 07033W 8429 01559 0078 +185 +095 223019 019 022 000 00
224730 1607N 07033W 8428 01561 0080 +184 +095 221019 019 021 000 00
224800 1609N 07033W 8426 01560 0078 +185 +095 220018 019 022 000 00
224830 1611N 07033W 8428 01560 0078 +184 +095 217018 019 023 000 00
224900 1613N 07033W 8426 01560 0080 +179 +096 216019 020 023 001 00
224930 1614N 07033W 8433 01552 0082 +175 +096 215020 021 025 001 00
225000 1616N 07033W 8428 01556 0081 +173 +095 215019 022 025 005 00
$$
;

[hurr123]

Anyone knows with JB is thinking on this system? It certainly has been an interesting storm!!

[AJC3]

Yes, this far out. We're talking about a TC that has had a history of intensity issues with respect to shear, dry air and land interaction, and has been consistently moving left of the forecast track, yet is forecast to be in the midst of a recurve while it's moving near both the latitude and longitude of the Florida east coast. How can forecast confidence be anything BUT low?

So w/ Emily possibly not moving over mainland Hispaniola, do you think the NHC may bump up the intensity forecast?

I seriously, seriously doubt it anytime soon, especially considering some of the global models are opening up into a wave now.

[Blown Away]

Anyone knows with JB is thinking on this system? It certainly has been an interesting storm!!

I'll have to check his twitter!!!

[sunnyday]

Any chance of ts watches for S Fl tomorrow?

[Dave]

[jlauderdal]

nogaps up the east coast of florida.. has a closed system...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

the navy model had a SE florida hit on monday, fairly consistent i would say

[AJC3]

Is the shear still a problem?

It's becoming less and less of a problem as time passes. However, obstruction of inflow due to interaction with Hispanola is still a problem, especially with the center apparently reforming farther north, closer to the Pedernales Peninsula/Isla Beata.

[Vortex]

nogaps up the east coast of florida.. has a closed system...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

18z 850mb nogaps...i think this looks spot on....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST
TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A
TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE
STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

this far out??? we are less than 60 hours out from it reaching Florida according to the NHC projections

seems reasonable, models have been wavering, motion has been W when it was forecasted to be wnw or nw and land interaction is a big unknown at this point, nothing wrong with saying low confidence..anyone here have anything more than low confidence?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032300
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 40 20110803
225030 1618N 07033W 8436 01549 0077 +181 +094 215020 020 026 000 00
225100 1620N 07033W 8424 01562 0080 +176 +092 217020 021 025 000 00
225130 1622N 07033W 8431 01553 0081 +174 +092 220020 021 026 000 00
225200 1623N 07033W 8430 01554 0079 +175 +093 221022 022 026 001 00
225230 1625N 07033W 8429 01555 0076 +178 +093 221023 024 028 000 00
225300 1627N 07033W 8434 01545 0077 +172 +094 219025 025 029 001 00
225330 1629N 07033W 8427 01550 0086 +156 +093 224026 027 031 004 00
225400 1631N 07033W 8426 01554 0077 +170 +090 233024 026 033 004 00
225430 1632N 07033W 8429 01550 0073 +180 +088 228022 023 032 001 03
225500 1634N 07033W 8429 01551 0071 +182 +087 226023 023 030 001 00
225530 1636N 07033W 8429 01549 0070 +181 +089 226022 023 031 000 00
225600 1638N 07033W 8430 01549 0067 +184 +091 237021 022 028 000 00
225630 1639N 07033W 8426 01548 0063 +187 +092 232020 020 030 000 00
225700 1641N 07033W 8429 01544 0060 +188 +092 226019 019 032 001 00
225730 1643N 07033W 8432 01542 0059 +188 +093 221018 019 032 001 00
225800 1645N 07033W 8425 01550 0068 +173 +094 218018 019 034 006 03
225830 1646N 07034W 8425 01544 0070 +165 +092 233017 018 039 013 00
225900 1648N 07034W 8430 01538 0066 +172 +090 246015 019 034 006 00
225930 1650N 07035W 8432 01540 0054 +192 +088 255006 007 020 001 03
230000 1651N 07035W 8427 01544 0051 +197 +088 227005 006 017 000 03
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Any chance of ts watches for S Fl tomorrow?

I would think there would have to be some sort of watch issued for the coast. I mean the NW Bahamas are 50 miles east of here and they are under a TS Watch..

[Dave]

PREVIOUS VDM OB 8 CORRECTED:

Code: Select all

000
URNT12 KNHC 032249 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL052011
A. 03/19:53:40Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
  070 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1461 m
D. 12 kt
E. 234 deg 50 nm
F. 360 deg 20 kt
G. 239 deg 24 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1524 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY              OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 17:51:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT N QUAD 20:08:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 207 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;



[Dave]

[Kory]

Very good chance a watch is issued, but if Emily takes the current track, don't expect full fledged tropical storm force winds and rain. There is a good chance that some dry air over the SE US will get wrapped in the system and choke convection on the west side. Again, surf is the biggest affect, with some scattered showers and some breezy winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032310
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 41 20110803
230030 1653N 07036W 8428 01541 0052 +194 +089 307000 003 016 000 00
230100 1654N 07036W 8429 01538 0050 +195 +090 004003 005 015 001 00
230130 1656N 07037W 8427 01543 0049 +198 +091 035004 004 015 000 03
230200 1657N 07037W 8422 01545 0047 +200 +091 032003 003 014 000 03
230230 1659N 07036W 8429 01539 0048 +197 +091 055004 005 013 000 00
230300 1700N 07035W 8429 01539 0049 +195 +092 074006 007 015 000 00
230330 1701N 07034W 8426 01538 0044 +201 +093 089008 009 016 001 03
230400 1702N 07033W 8427 01542 0050 +197 +094 119006 007 /// /// 03
230430 1701N 07031W 8433 01535 0051 +192 +095 152006 010 024 005 03
230500 1701N 07030W 8432 01535 0052 +191 +095 184014 015 033 009 00
230530 1701N 07028W 8432 01540 0059 +187 +092 172017 018 043 007 03
230600 1701N 07028W 8432 01540 0060 +188 +089 181020 022 040 005 00
230630 1700N 07025W 8437 01537 0058 +192 +088 194019 019 044 006 00
230700 1700N 07023W 8428 01550 0073 +175 +086 184022 023 044 014 00
230730 1700N 07021W 8429 01549 0073 +180 +085 172019 022 050 014 03
230800 1700N 07020W 8436 01546 0074 +183 +083 161020 024 035 004 00
230830 1700N 07018W 8435 01545 0075 +181 +082 153016 020 033 003 03
230900 1700N 07016W 8433 01551 0082 +172 +081 136011 015 033 003 00
230930 1701N 07015W 8426 01554 0084 +167 +079 161015 018 033 007 00
231000 1701N 07013W 8420 01563 0088 +160 +077 176023 027 046 013 00
$$
;

[Dave]