ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...



there is no shear over this thing....the convection is starting to fan out rather than be blown off....waiting on an anticyclone to build...need an LLC and its come back would be complete.

Def having an off year, post wise. Although unfortunately it appears activity on the forum has dwindled with every passing year.....


Today is obviously crucial now that it has a chance to get its act together. I'd say 25% chance it does, and if it does, 50% chance it develops overall.


So as you can see, odds still pretty low and i'd like to believe i'm being generous. We need odds to improve for more interest in this area.

A classic early season hype invest, lol.

[ROCK]

you guys give up to easily...

need some surface obs out of Cuba and or ship...no buoys out there....

[KWT]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...

I think its partly due to the fact that the NHC have given this near 0% chance of development in the next 48hrs and no global models develop it other than the NAM and even thats pretty weak...put the two together and people don't really care bout it, even though at this time of year it does need to be watched!

As for posts, its interesting to note I'm keeping a database of that, will be interesting to see where we are at the end of July...

Still does need to be watched, the NHC maybe a little too low (I'd have kept with 10% since Bret showed they can get caught with their pants down in that respect) butyou can't blame them for going that low right now.

[Ivanhater]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...



there is no shear over this thing....the convection is starting to fan out rather than be blown off....waiting on an anticyclone to build...need an LLC and its come back would be complete.

Def having an off year, post wise. Although unfortunately it appears activity on the forum has dwindled with every passing year.....


Today is obviously crucial now that it has a chance to get its act together. I'd say 25% chance it does, and if it does, 50% chance it develops overall.


So as you can see, odds still pretty low and i'd like to believe i'm being generous. We need odds to improve for more interest in this area.

A classic early season hype invest, lol.

Not to get too far off topic but regarding posting, we have not had a significant threat to the U.S coast in a couple of years. I assure you, once there is a real threat headed for the East or especially the Gulf coast, it will be very hard to keep up with the posts.

[NDG]

here you can see spin south Jamaica their weak spin that area http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

There's abosolutely nothing south of Jamaica other than a weak ULL.
Look for the are NNW of Jamaica just west of Cabo Cruz, near 19.75N & 78.2W, that's where the H85 vorticity is along the surface trough for the sign of any surface circulation to get going as it moves WNW this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

I wouldn't be shocked if this re-fired in the West Caribbean. The last week in July is when conditions start forcing development. The wave is starting to exhibit curvature and a track south of Cuba.

TWC nailed that TD in the south BOC before anyone.

.

[cycloneye]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...



there is no shear over this thing....the convection is starting to fan out rather than be blown off....waiting on an anticyclone to build...need an LLC and its come back would be complete.

Def having an off year, post wise. Although unfortunately it appears activity on the forum has dwindled with every passing year.....


Today is obviously crucial now that it has a chance to get its act together. I'd say 25% chance it does, and if it does, 50% chance it develops overall.


So as you can see, odds still pretty low and i'd like to believe i'm being generous. We need odds to improve for more interest in this area.

A classic early season hype invest, lol.

Not to get too far off topic but regarding posting, we have not had a significant threat to the U.S coast in a couple of years. I assure you, once there is a real threat headed for the East or especially the Gulf coast, it will be very hard to keep up with the posts.

+1

Also,if you go to the archieves forum, there are all the threads of the past seasons and look how active they were,and as Michael said,hurricanes in the GOM were a source of a very active forum.

viewforum.php?f=54

[cycloneye]

Stays at 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[GCANE]

Looks like NHC expanded the circle a bit to include the wave axis and convection.

[ROCK]

I was just seeing if anyone was listening....

NHC at 0% is very upsetting...they should have reduced 48 down to 24hr to leave them an out.....right now they have no out...JMO....

[NDG]

I definitely get the impression that something is trying to spin just west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba.
Might still be above the surface.

[KWT]

0% may well be a little too low, given the convection increase I'm a little surprised they didn't bother going to 10% again, but I spose that will come if the convection holds...

[NDG]

0% may well be a little too low, given the convection increase I'm a little surprised they didn't bother going to 10% again, but I spose that will come if the convection holds...

With all due respect to the NHC and all pro metereologists that make them up, I have always noticed that once they make a decision it takes quite a bit of evidence for them to recall their forecast back, they stand to their forecast very strong.
They should had kept it at 10%

[NDG]

A little hard to tell through the Plymouth website, the 12z euro shows a slightly stronger vorticity with falling surface pressures as it heads WNW through the next 72 hrs.

[ROCK]

A little hard to tell through the Plymouth website, the 12z euro shows a slightly stronger vorticity with falling surface pressures as it heads WNW through the next 72 hrs.

I see it out 72hr on Allen's site...closes it off as it enters the GOM but then shears it out at 96hr....thats as far as its run...

[HouTXmetro]

I definately see organizing cyclonic turning and banding....I'm shocked this is at 0% right now. Are we not looking at the same satellite?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[chrisnnavarre]

I guess when it forms an eye wall they'll put an invest back on it...

[ROCK]

I definately see organizing cyclonic turning and banding....I'm shocked this is at 0% right now. Are we not looking at the same satellite?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

your looking at the 4KM overview....get up close to 1KM and really see what we have been talking about all day...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

it has been persistant all day but its not at the surface just yet....Those cloud tops are not as cold as I would like to see them...

[ROCK]

120hr EURO

[ROCK]

lower level converg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Upper level converg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=