ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Blown Away]

Ok, this is the second time the NHC says stationary and the cloud field continues moving W? Is this a true stall or LLC relocation?

[jlauderdal]

JLauderdal, are you going to fire up the generator for a test run tomorrow??

ran it a couple of weeks ago, lets see how things progress on the intensity side, maybe after 5pm tomorrow, i have skin in the game on this one, flight out of MIA on sat afternoon for northern wisc fishing so i will pull out all the stops to keep that airport open

[Bobo2000]

Maybe a reorganization...

[gatorcane]

She looks alot like Fay did when she was South of Hispaniola. I remember Fay really blew up convection in about the same area.

Looks like she may start a more NW movement but hard to tell what is happening based on IR loops.

[GCANE]

The storm seems to have gotten it's act together somewhat; now it has to survive some land interaction and it may be a big time player. I am not sold at all to the idea of an early recurve at all however, even before her naming i've always suspected that the storm may ride through the straights or hug cuba, before considering the models and trends.

If she goes thru the Windward passage, she'll be a player in the Bahamas.

If she goes west, she'll be a player in the GOM.

[Rainband]

trust the pros.....

[TheDreamTraveler]

The storm seems to have gotten it's act together somewhat; now it has to survive some land interaction and it may be a big time player. I am not sold at all to the idea of an early recurve at all however, even before her naming i've always suspected that the storm may ride through the straights or hug cuba, before considering the models and trends.

If I got a nickel for everytime I've heard someone say that the past week I'd be rich right now. =P

But I agree, the land interaction will be its biggest hurdle yet.

[Bobo2000]

Says Emily is supposed to keep west. At same speed too.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, this is the second time the NHC says stationary and the cloud field continues moving W? Is this a true stall or LLC relocation?

Hard to tell now without recon, but last time the NHC said stationary, wasn't Emily was going through a cyclonic loop? Either way, Emily stalling and moving west again isn't something new.

How far do you guys think the NHC will shift their cone west?

[sunnyday]

A major 10 miles off the coast of west palm? When is that predicted to happen?

[SapphireSea]

The GFDL rebuilds the atlantic ridge further west this run, and it seems to do so in a hurry. Looking at the speed of the trough's progression towards the E - ENE I say it may be correct with the speed and timing, but may not be correct with the strength of the ridge for it to track the way it does at the intensity it advertises.

The speed of the exiting trough, intensity of the storm, and strength of the ridge in the atlantic will be the determining factor on where it goes and how fast.

[Kory]

Ok, this is the second time the NHC says stationary and the cloud field continues moving W? Is this a true stall or LLC relocation?

Hard to tell now without recon, but last time the NHC said stationary, wasn't Emily was going through a cyclonic loop? Either way, Emily stalling and moving west again isn't something new.

How far do you guys think the NHC will shift their cone west?

They've been stubborn before about moving it. I'm thinking 50-75 miles....

[jlauderdal]

I'm sure Jim's got it tuned and ready to go.

its ready, thought i might need it yesterday with that tornado 10 miles to the NW yesterday, that thing did did some extensive roof damage...back to hurricanes

[Bobo2000]

Ok, this is the second time the NHC says stationary and the cloud field continues moving W? Is this a true stall or LLC relocation?

Hard to tell now without recon, but last time the NHC said stationary, wasn't Emily was going through a cyclonic loop? Either way, Emily stalling and moving west again isn't something new.

How far do you guys think the NHC will shift their cone west?

Maybe about 30 to 40 miles west.

[RL3AO]

Has the upper level data sampled N of Hispaniola been posted??

I posted the one south of the Hatian Peninsula but not any of the northern ones.

[gatorcane]

The trough has stopped digging down, as seen on this WV loop. You can see the line of clouds extending from South FL out through the Central Bahamas stopping progressing south. Look at that Upper-level windflow East of FL...you can see the winds are blowing from the east in the upper layers of the atmosphere

Emily is definitely feeling the weakness passing by now to the NNE...but that should be temporary and a WNW or NW movement should resume as some ridging builds back in to the N and NE of Emily (remember we reached max troughiness today on the trough). That is what the models are picking up on I think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[SapphireSea]

Ok, this is the second time the NHC says stationary and the cloud field continues moving W? Is this a true stall or LLC relocation?

Hard to tell now without recon, but last time the NHC said stationary, wasn't Emily was going through a cyclonic loop? Either way, Emily stalling and moving west again isn't something new.

How far do you guys think the NHC will shift their cone west?

Maybe about 30 to 40 miles west.

I doubt the NHC would post any track with landfall until at least tomorrow. However they are the authority and one can only make educated speculation.

[SouthFLTropics]

The next mission departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70   
       A. 05/0600Z,1200Z           
       B. AFXXX 1305A EMILYE     
       C. 05/0315Z                 
       D. 22.0N 75.7W             
       E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 

Luis...Are they flying out of Biloxi or St. Croix?

SFT

[ronjon]

I don't think anyone posted the NOAA 12z HWRF 3 km from 12z. Will be interesting to see the 18z run since this one runs it up the spine of the peninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080312-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Kory]

Who knows...the BAMs could be onto something...