ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

There are no SFL watches/warnings at 11

[ozonepete]

Any strengthening/reorganizing that's going on now is going to end very shortly as most of the circulation if not all of it passes over western Hispaniola. There isn't really any way to know what will happen until this gets away from land by crossing over Haiti and eastern Cuba and getting into the Bahamas. that said, it still is REALLY impressive how it keeps fighting back. One for the books.

[gatorcane]

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

Though we don't like to see that kind of rainfall in Haiti, I would welcome that kind of rainfall here in S. Florida. We would get out of the drought for sure if that happened, haven't got too much rain here in Palm Beach County the last few weeks. It's been very dry.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the Discussion:

OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

[cycloneye]

Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[stormreader]

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

Yes. And everyone (quite rightly I think) expects the NHC Track which is along the east side of guidance to shift west to very near the SE Coast of Fl. But we have several days until landfall and the west track (which indicates the strengthening ridge) might also indicate a further west shift later toward the keys-W Coast of Fl.

[Vortex]

11 pm snipet:


IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

[gatorcane]

From the Discussion:

OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

First time they mentioned Florida right?

[CourierPR]

If the NHC says she's headed NW, then I'll believe it.

Well they said she was supposed to cross over Puerto Rico a couple days ago...did you believe that? Plus on their last advisory, she is stationary. I don't know where you get NW from.

Kory, I'm not the one trumpeting the NW heading. Others are doing that. I was just responding.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MULTIPLE
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z WERE ALL ESSENTIALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION. DATA FROM
THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY...WHICH REMAINS
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SLOW MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO COME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY LAND
INTERACTION WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THAT PERIOD. BEYOND 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRUCTURE OF
EMILY AFTER IT TRAVERSES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT
TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING
EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION. AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS. OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW
FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.1N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.9N 72.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 22.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.8N 77.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 31.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Florida1118]

And they still are lying east of concensus...

[jdray]

11 pm snipet:


IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

A recurve is going to happen, just where it recurves sets up who gets hit. I could see this making a run on SW Florida the way the models are handling it. It keeps trudging west, so NHC will have to keep shifting west.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the Discussion:

OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

First time they mentioned Florida right?

They mentioned SFL at the 5 in passing, saying we need to watch Emily's progress.

[Blown Away]

A tad further west..within 60 miles of palm beach coastline


FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

Yep, tad closer and winds up to 65 mph when it reaches WPB's latitude. Potential to be a hurricane at that point, IMO.

[itsahurricane]

If the NHC says she's headed NW, then I'll believe it.

Well they said she was supposed to cross over Puerto Rico a couple days ago...did you believe that? Plus on their last advisory, she is stationary. I don't know where you get NW from.

Kory, I'm not the one trumpeting the NW heading. Others are doing that. I was just responding.

I was in agreement with Kory a couple days ago about how it's going West.

[gone2beach]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dennis_1999_track.png

[Vortex]

FWIW, 00Z NAM shows landfall over south florida late Saturday...Albeit weak first time model has brought it too the coast....The trend continues...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

IT is a good reasoning actually.. there is so much uncertainty with track both becasue the initial motion and land interaction that shifting west any more would just be hasty since it could technically start moving NW now and their track verify.. waiting a little longer is not a bad idea at all..

[gatorcane]

A tad further west..within 60 miles of palm beach coastline


FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

Yep, tad closer and winds up to 65 mph when it reaches WPB's latitude. Potential to be a hurricane at that point, IMO.

Could be, they even mentioned their intensity forecast is conservative.

Could you imagine if they showed an "H" in the track over S. Florida (if they took the intensity guidance and the track of the multimodel consensus)

The media is already in a frenzy and we just have a Tropical Storm threat.

But it all depends on what it looks like when it emerges on the Northern Coast of Cuba based on that track (assuming it does go that way)

[TYNI]

And they still are lying east of concensus...

...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES

I don't know why they are not taking the consensus track... this seems a little abnormal to me.