ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure if this corresponds to the low levels but the last hour and half on radar. seems to again slowed down considerably. will see what recon says with the next pass.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 251754
XXAA 75187 99265 70772 08067 99950 27406 08012 00962 ///// /////
92234 26403 06008 85983 24014 04012 70671 16858 09507 88999 77999
31313 09608 81733
61616 AF306 2109A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2646N07721W 1736 MBL WND 05508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 05
508 949696 WL150 07011 084 REL 2646N07721W 173328 SPG 2646N07722W
173615 =
XXBB 75188 99265 70772 08067 00950 27406 11850 24014 22720 18223
33696 16459
21212 00950 08012 11941 06012 22930 07010 33897 00505 44869 03008
55862 02504 66850 04012 77797 04511 88786 07510 99760 09516 11731
06512 22722 09517 33714 05015 44696 09507
31313 09608 81733
61616 AF306 2109A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2646N07721W 1736 MBL WND 05508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 05
508 949696 WL150 07011 084 REL 2646N07721W 173328 SPG 2646N07722W
173615 =
;

[canes04]

Did she hit the brakes again?

[Dave]

325
URNT15 KNHC 251755
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 15 20110825
174530 2657N 07640W 6973 02915 9780 +107 +043 137084 085 069 007 00
174600 2658N 07639W 6967 02931 9787 +109 +044 138083 083 072 006 00
174630 2659N 07637W 6965 02939 9802 +102 +045 139084 085 070 007 00
174700 2700N 07636W 6971 02938 9834 +080 +045 139083 084 068 014 00
174730 2701N 07635W 6963 02954 9833 +086 +044 137084 085 070 012 00
174800 2703N 07633W 6968 02951 9831 +092 +043 138082 083 067 010 00
174830 2704N 07632W 6974 02951 9837 +092 +042 139082 082 069 007 00
174900 2705N 07631W 6964 02966 9833 +099 +042 140082 082 069 008 00
174930 2706N 07629W 6971 02962 9834 +103 +042 141083 084 069 006 00
175000 2707N 07628W 6967 02972 9840 +103 +043 142083 084 069 006 00
175030 2709N 07627W 6967 02977 9842 +105 +044 143082 083 069 005 00
175100 2710N 07625W 6968 02982 9847 +105 +045 145084 086 067 004 00
175130 2711N 07624W 6962 02990 9863 +096 +046 146087 089 066 007 00
175200 2713N 07622W 6964 02992 9865 +097 +046 147089 092 065 005 00
175230 2714N 07621W 6974 02984 9860 +106 +045 147084 086 065 005 00
175300 2715N 07619W 6972 02997 9873 +101 +045 146083 086 064 005 00
175330 2716N 07618W 6969 03007 9883 +097 +045 143084 085 064 003 00
175400 2717N 07617W 6963 03017 9886 +100 +044 143084 085 064 000 03
175430 2719N 07615W 6968 03016 9892 +101 +043 140087 091 064 001 03
175500 2720N 07614W 6964 03026 9896 +102 +043 138090 091 063 000 03
$$
;

[JPmia]

Not sure if this corresponds to the low levels but the last hour and half on radar. seems to again slowed down considerably. will see what recon says with the next pass.

yeah i notice that too.. wasn't sure if it was radar/satellite images fooling my eyes or not.

[Okibeach]

Nice website if you like Images
http://www.tropicwx.com/

[HurrMark]

West side getting socked with dry air...

[Jevo]

Not sure if this corresponds to the low levels but the last hour and half on radar. seems to again slowed down considerably. will see what recon says with the next pass.

On GRLevel3 the eye has moved approx 9 miles in the last hour.. Then again it is about 200mi from the radar location, so there is room for error

[micktooth]

Way to go Aric, how much $$$ did you have to pay? Just kidding of course, keep up the awesome work and insights !

[Listeri69]

My local Public radio is calling this the $100billion dollar storm. They are giving people lots of tips and warning how to prepare. Its people who live in high rise buildings in NYC that worry me. There is sooooo many trees around here (CT) people have 100 year old trees next to their houses they line the road ways, overhang powerlines the ground is extremely saturated from a month of thunderstorms and rain so tree roots can come out easily. Were definitely not prepared for this type of storm here at all. The supermarkets and stores were suprisingly empty today knowing the local news has been telling people this has been on the cards for the last few days. So could this be worse than katrina? In cost alone probably. People seem to think this is nothing more than a stronger than average storm or that it won't affect them much. I'm glad I prepared today, and I noticed that some of the older population were buying batteries and flashlights as well. I expect what will happen is they will wait till there is less than 12hrs to go and you won't be able to move for people in the stores.

[Stephanie]

What town is that? I have lots of friends and co-workers in Jersey. I actually live in west Brooklyn now, but high enough and far enough away from the water. But many of my friends live down by the water at or near Brighton Beach and the Rockaways and they are not taking this seriously. The keep laughing and saying "not here, not my neighborhood." It's VERY frustrating. I'm hoping when the warnings go up that they'll change their tune.

"I'm in Glassboro, NJ, just south of Philadelphia in Gloucester County."

Oh duh! I just realized it's on your id/avatar there. Sorry, I'm pretty distracted by this non-stop stream of data.

Not a problem! LOL!

I also have A LOT of trees in my yard and when we have excessive rain, I'm toward the lower end of the development so I tend to get a river in my yard. Two weekends ago when South Jersey received 10+ inches of rain, that's exactly what happened. NOT looking forward to Irene at home and I'm NOT looking forward to the reports out of Philadelphia and the NJ shore towns.

[Mouton]

Settlement Point GBI station report:

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
1:00 pm N ( 8 deg ) 36 kts
12:50 pm N ( 4 deg ) 34 kts
12:40 pm N ( 356 deg ) 27 kts
12:30 pm N ( 5 deg ) 26 kts
12:20 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 28 kts
12:10 pm NE ( 34 deg ) 33 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
12:48 pm N ( 360 deg ) 44

weblink?? I can only find a bouy that the storm will pass later tonight:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

oh and congrats Aric.. you provide some good analysis here. thanks for that.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml The site I used

[bzukajo]

As I have said before, flying back from Houston after Ike passed through, I observed the canopy below on approach to Providence, and I thought about the all the trees that would come down if a storm resembling anything like Ike hit in NE. For one thing, all the trees are lush and green. The ground is saturated well before the storm gets here. Right now most of my region is on the east side of the storm. If the the track and predicted strength prevails, I do not think there will be enough chainsaws to go around, and power outages for weeks.

[Stephanie]

Does anyone have a link where you can type in your location and get a storm surge potential reading. Like say you can type in New York City and Category 1 and then get the potential storm surge rise.

USe this that Stephanie posted before. Just drag on map to your area and zoom, then select hurr cat strength from drop down. Awesome.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

That link is also in the Irene Mid Atlantic and Northeast threads.

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

A Category 2 impact in the main islands of the Bahamas and it seems they fared very well according to CNN - why do some of these islands do a lot better?

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251803
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/17:33:20Z
B. 26 deg 27 min N
077 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2666 m
D. 69 kt
E. 234 deg 43 nm
F. 315 deg 82 kt
G. 234 deg 46 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. Open S thru W
M. C35
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 2109A IRENE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SW QUAD 17:19:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 17:43:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 237 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
Clouds below in center
;

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports a 949mb pressure, but I still don't think it is a Cat 3. I would have gone 95 kt on last data, maybe 90 kt.

[Stephanie]

Just from the anecdotal comments on this forum and responses from our friends and family .... geez, I'm very concerned that millions of people won't be ready for Irene.

I'm in a relatively "safe place". Inland 15 miles from the west and north, and 50 miles from the south and east. My elevation is 98 ft. above sea level. HOWEVER, there are quite a few streams and rivers around and we tend to get a lot of flooding when we have down pours. Also, my current place of employment is along the Delaware River in Philadelphia. Storm surge could be a HUGE problem.

We are 2 miles in from the bay and 7 feet above sea level. We are definitely keeping an eye on this storm. We started our preparations yesterday and we are in full force now. The stores were not full at all yesterday. (Both Home Depot & Walmart). I don't think many people are taking this seriously. Everyone please prepare & be safe.

You need to move out of where you live. There's a link for calculated storm surge in this thread and in the Irene Northeast thread. Type in your zip code and select a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. You're going to get innundated!

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 6

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 18:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°27'N 77°13'W (26.45N 77.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 96 miles (155 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,666m (8,747ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the SW (234°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 82kts (From the NW at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the SW (234°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open S thru W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:19:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:43:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW (237°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Clouds below in center