ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

717
URNT15 KNHC 251805
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 16 20110825
175530 2721N 07613W 6967 03028 9908 +096 +043 138088 089 061 002 03
175600 2722N 07611W 6969 03031 9918 +093 +044 135086 087 061 001 00
175630 2723N 07610W 6965 03039 9921 +094 +043 134085 085 061 003 00
175700 2725N 07609W 6967 03038 9927 +092 +042 135085 086 059 006 00
175730 2726N 07607W 6966 03043 9929 +094 +042 136086 087 056 009 00
175800 2727N 07606W 6967 03045 9935 +090 +042 137085 086 060 010 00
175830 2728N 07605W 6966 03048 9944 +087 +041 140086 086 060 012 00
175900 2729N 07603W 6969 03048 9951 +082 +040 137086 089 063 014 03
175930 2730N 07602W 6977 03039 9957 +078 +040 138077 080 060 021 00
180000 2732N 07601W 6962 03049 9956 +076 +039 143085 087 065 013 00
180030 2733N 07559W 6974 03047 9961 +079 +037 146089 091 063 008 00
180100 2734N 07558W 6963 03061 9968 +075 +036 144086 086 061 009 00
180130 2735N 07556W 6971 03055 9973 +073 +035 145089 091 062 010 00
180200 2737N 07555W 6965 03066 9969 +080 +035 145085 087 061 008 00
180230 2738N 07554W 6966 03068 9986 +072 +035 139085 086 061 010 00
180300 2739N 07552W 6967 03066 9993 +065 +034 136087 087 059 010 00
180330 2740N 07551W 6964 03073 9992 +069 +034 133091 092 056 005 00
180400 2741N 07550W 6973 03065 9987 +075 +034 133089 089 056 004 00
180430 2742N 07548W 6983 03064 9986 +079 +032 131088 089 057 004 00
180500 2743N 07547W 6963 03084 9989 +078 +032 130087 087 055 004 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

A Category 2 impact in the main islands of the Bahamas and it seems they fared very well according to CNN - why do some of these islands do a lot better?

They prepare a lot better than in other places.

[Dave]

[Aja]

Hugo spawned tornadoes that did more damage than the sustained winds inland. I am concerned for the lack of media blasting to NY'ers on the east side to get out now. It is going to take from now to zero hour to even get 1/3 of NYC cleared out. Is there a death wish up there? Are they waiting for bragging survival rights over life? Is the lack of food, h2o and power worth staying, should they survive on the coast high rises?

[Dave]

CORRECTED VDM OB 6

000
URNT12 KNHC 251806 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/17:33:20Z
B. 26 deg 27 min N
077 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2666 m
D. 69 kt
E. 234 deg 43 nm
F. 315 deg 82 kt
G. 234 deg 46 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 10 C / 3021 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. Open S thru W
M. C35
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 2109A IRENE OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SW QUAD 17:19:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 17:43:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 237 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
Clouds below in center
;

[GTStorm]

West side getting socked with dry air...

that is good!!! keep it coming!

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 251808
XXAA 75187 99268 70769 08066 99950 25406 09592 00952 ///// /////
92237 23402 10599 85976 20809 12095 70641 13834 13583 88999 77999
31313 09608 81740
51515 10166 00070
61616 AF306 2109A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2680N07697W 1744 MBL WND 11101 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12096 950697 WL150 10101 084 REL 2675N07688W 174030 SPG 268
0N07697W 174356 =
XXBB 75188 99268 70769 08066 00950 25406 11850 20809 22723 14805
33697 13439
21212 00950 09592 11942 10104 22929 10598 33919 11104 44902 11606
55882 11599 66850 12095 77741 13097 88697 13583
31313 09608 81740
51515 10166 00070
61616 AF306 2109A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2680N07697W 1744 MBL WND 11101 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12096 950697 WL150 10101 084 REL 2675N07688W 174030 SPG 268
0N07697W 174356 =
;

[cheezyWXguy]

West side getting socked with dry air...

that is good!!! keep it coming!

actually it really doesnt look that bad to me. New convection has formed and is wrapping around, the weakness now in the southern part of the eyewall. Pressure is also dropping slightly, so its likely that we are about have a gradually strengthening hurricane on our hands.

[Mello1]

Those poor people in NYC don't have a clue about a hurricane. Just as I am an authority on blizzards...NOT! I wonder how many billions of dollars in damage Irene is going to cause? Could it top Katrina?.....MGC

<delurking to post>

If this storm has the impact that it could have in the NYC region, then flooding is inevitable and all of the damage it implies. If this storm hits at an intensity and angle just wrong, their transportation infrastructure will be impacted. Given that their infrastructure is very old and resources are scarce, they are probably doing the best they can with what they got. Their best plan of action is perhaps to get people sheltered and/or evac'd when the time comes.

'These comments do not reflect or suggest any hurricane path or intensity or replaces prudent advice given by local authorities on disaster planning'.

</delurking>

[WYNweather]

"It is going to take from now to zero hour to even get 1/3 of NYC cleared out."

I think it is to late now.

Just did some looking at the Topography of some of the areas this could be real ugly. Attached the web site. Those up north can look at where they live.

http://www.topozone.com/states/NewYork.asp

[GTStorm]

seems like a pretty big wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html?wwparam=1314294568&wwparam=1314295780

[Stephanie]

Those poor people in NYC don't have a clue about a hurricane. Just as I am an authority on blizzards...NOT! I wonder how many billions of dollars in damage Irene is going to cause? Could it top Katrina?.....MGC

<delurking to post>

If this storm has the impact that it could have in the NYC region, then flooding is inevitable and all of the damage it implies. If this storm hits at an intensity and angle just wrong, their transportation infrastructure will be impacted. Given that their infrastructure is very old and resources are scarce, they are probably doing the best they can with what they got. Their best plan of action is perhaps to get people sheltered and/or evac'd when the time comes.

'These comments do not reflect or suggest any hurricane path or intensity or replaces prudent advice given by local authorities on disaster planning'.

</delurking>

Welcome Mello! LOL!

There's really no place for people to be sheltered in the city. The transportation system will be severely compromised. They need to get people out of there.

[Dave]

[Dave]

957
URNT15 KNHC 251815
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 17 20110825
180530 2745N 07546W 6965 03083 9993 +077 +031 132087 088 054 005 00
180600 2746N 07545W 6968 03083 9997 +078 +030 133088 089 /// /// 03
180630 2748N 07546W 6967 03088 0002 +077 +030 131084 087 /// /// 03
180700 2748N 07548W 6965 03088 0003 +074 +029 130082 083 052 006 03
180730 2748N 07550W 6965 03086 9997 +076 +029 127082 084 056 005 03
180800 2748N 07553W 6966 03081 9992 +078 +028 127086 086 058 006 00
180830 2748N 07555W 6965 03079 9992 +074 +028 126084 085 058 006 00
180900 2748N 07558W 6970 03068 0000 +066 +027 127086 086 057 006 00
180930 2748N 07601W 6970 03066 9993 +068 +027 126084 085 058 006 00
181000 2748N 07603W 6960 03079 0000 +062 +026 130087 090 058 006 00
181030 2749N 07606W 6973 03060 9988 +069 +026 133088 090 060 006 00
181100 2749N 07609W 6967 03065 9987 +068 +027 131092 093 059 009 00
181130 2749N 07611W 6963 03066 9987 +065 +027 127091 092 060 012 00
181200 2749N 07614W 6960 03067 9989 +061 +027 125089 090 061 012 00
181230 2750N 07617W 6965 03059 9980 +067 +027 122087 088 059 013 00
181300 2750N 07619W 6970 03053 9972 +072 +028 122085 086 059 012 00
181330 2750N 07622W 6965 03056 9965 +075 +027 119089 090 059 010 00
181400 2750N 07625W 6974 03043 9968 +071 +028 115087 091 059 010 00
181430 2751N 07627W 6967 03053 9962 +076 +028 122078 078 059 010 00
181500 2751N 07630W 6971 03040 9950 +080 +028 127078 080 060 010 00
$$
;

[maryellen40]

Hugo spawned tornadoes that did more damage than the sustained winds inland. I am concerned for the lack of media blasting to NY'ers on the east side to get out now. It is going to take from now to zero hour to even get 1/3 of NYC cleared out. Is there a death wish up there? Are they waiting for bragging survival rights over life? Is the lack of food, h2o and power worth staying, should they survive on the coast high rises?

there was a earlier post in which the poster had a friend in NYC and that when he told him the implications,he was told "Money is still to be made".

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

[mf_dolphin]

Winds coming up at Buoy 41010 which is a pretty good bit north of Irene

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[Raebie]

I would imagine you will see a refinement in the watch/warning areas beginning tomorrow.

[Dean4Storms]

Take it from a Gulf Coast resident that has been through a few. The Storm Surge is the most dangerous aspect, it sweeps everything in its path. If you live anywhere near water get the heck out, don't even chance it. Wind damage is the secondary biggest concern.

[lostsole]

For some reason I am having trouble finding out if people think this is going to strengthen or not? It seems pretty lopsided, but do they expect that to change, because that could be a major factor in damage to east coast. I have been on the west side of MANY storms and it was pretty calm compared to the same distance from the center on the east side. Hurricane Dennis was a beast when it came through and I was on the west eyewall almost and we just got minimal damage while over just 25 miles from me got hammered. I have family on a very low lying small island in the Chesapeake (Deal Island, MD) and they are not worried. Their house was almost flooded by storm surge by Isabel and I am trying to tell them this is going to be a much bigger storm. Am I wrong? They are saying that the house, built in early 1900s has never been flooded so their thinking is that it will never flood. I remember people thinking that during Katrina in MS, because Camille didnt get them. And they were very very wrong.