ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

ROCK · #681 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:46 pm

wind shear on the decrease for now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

#682 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:47 pm

Its getting to be about the right time of day to fire off some convection from the islands.

#683 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:48 pm

ROCK wrote:wind shear on the decrease for now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Holding up pretty good all day long.

#684 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:49 pm

What does the NHC see? Should be at least 20% with the conditions ahead of it. It's firing up some convection too.

#685 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:49 pm

I've never been a fan of this "percentages" thing the NHC came out with several years back. It's good for rain chances but not tropical systems. I remember last year or year before there was one system that went from 10% to 50% and then 0% in less then a day. How can this be? Anyway why bother mentioning it if it's 0%. I mean it's almost like they (NHC) want to leave a slight crack of a chance open just in case they are wrong. JMHO

#686 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:52 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I've never been a fan of this "percentages" thing the NHC came out with several years back. It's good for rain chances but not tropical systems. I remember last year or year before there was one system that went from 10% to 50% and then 0% in less then a day. How can this be? Anyway why bother mentioning it if it's 0%. I mean it's almost like they (NHC) what to leave a slight crack of a chance open just in case they are wrong. JMHO

Nailed it.

#687 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:54 pm

And that was 95L on the Louisiana coastline that had the massive percentage rise/drop.

KWT · #688 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:57 pm

Hmmm ECM does sort of hint that it will strengthen, you never know we may get one of those last gasp depressions form in the W.Gulf, I think maybe a little like Td2 (I think it was TD2??) from last year...

Does look like its not completely done like the NHC are suggesting with that 0%...but I dare say they will be raising it again some point soon if convection keeps up.

plasticup · #689 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I've never been a fan of this "percentages" thing the NHC came out with several years back. It's good for rain chances but not tropical systems. I remember last year or year before there was one system that went from 10% to 50% and then 0% in less then a day. How can this be? Anyway why bother mentioning it if it's 0%. I mean it's almost like they (NHC) what to leave a slight crack of a chance open just in case they are wrong. JMHO

Because it is 0% in the next 48 hours. If they bothered to mention it, they usually expect that percentage to increase beyond 48 hours.

fogbreath · #690 Postby **fogbreath** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:11 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I've never been a fan of this "percentages" thing the NHC came out with several years back. It's good for rain chances but not tropical systems. I remember last year or year before there was one system that went from 10% to 50% and then 0% in less then a day. How can this be? Anyway why bother mentioning it if it's 0%. I mean it's almost like they (NHC) what to leave a slight crack of a chance open just in case they are wrong. JMHO

Reminds me of the line in the movie "The Naked Gun" - "He's got a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that."

As far as 90L, I'm still new at this, so I'm not going to even venture a guesstimate on this one coming back to something more viable.

#691 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:13 pm

I'm seeing hints of a possible LLC developing just NW of extreme Western Jamaica. Anyone else seeing this?

#692 Postby **Nikki** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:13 pm

If ex 90L/90L can bring some much needed rain to Texas without all the hoopla a storm can bring, we will take it!

#693 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:21 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I'm seeing hints of a possible LLC developing just NW of extreme Western Jamaica. Anyone else seeing this?

No, just a wave. There is no surface or lower level circulation.

#694 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:28 pm

Definitely seeing spin just SW of Jamaica

SouthFLTropics · #695 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:29 pm

"So you're telling me there's a chance!!!" LMAO!!!

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#696 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:29 pm

It's hard to tell because the upper level clouds are getting blown off to the east, which tricks the eye to think there are westerly winds...

Aric Dunn · #697 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:31 pm

Like before... the thing that is needed is some organized convection. without it nothing will become of this. I do see at the least a more defined curvature the low level wind field so it can just sustain some convection long enough to get a good LLC then something may happen

#698 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:33 pm

Nonetheless, I think almost everyone here agrees this shouldn't be 0%... If the trend continues I would guess back up to 10% at 8pm...

#699 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:35 pm

Kingston has been holding NW winds for about the last 2 hrs.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Observ ... n=JMXX0002

Aric Dunn · #700 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:36 pm

GCANE wrote:Kingston has been holding NW winds for about the last 2 hrs.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Observ ... n=JMXX0002

yeah have to watch out with reports from mountainous islands. The winds are highly variable

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