ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aja]

I had home 30 miles inland when HUGO showed up. Hugo left me nothing. Took the taped windows and home! I recall huddled in closet friends crying and praying to live. I agree, they are fools.

~The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my personal opinion. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MBryant]

Window taping is so 60ish. I guess that's the last time they dealt with a tropical system.

[wx4tv]

Just created a Facebook page where people can post storm reports, photos and videos. Hope it is not a TOS violation to post the link here.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Hurrican ... 5739680763

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon reports, I would guess the intensity right now is 85 kt.

[Buck]

Her core seems to have solidified a lot more this afternoon and she is rounding out her shape. Should be interesting the size and shape she takes as she accelerates towards the north.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252046
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 32 20110825
203530 2753N 07609W 6971 03027 9938 +079 +035 146076 078 062 012 00
203600 2752N 07610W 6966 03033 9930 +083 +035 146078 080 060 009 00
203630 2751N 07611W 6971 03026 9936 +077 +035 147080 082 059 009 00
203700 2750N 07613W 6966 03026 9933 +073 +035 147079 080 059 011 00
203730 2749N 07614W 6966 03020 9924 +075 +034 148083 085 059 009 00
203800 2748N 07615W 6971 03008 9899 +093 +035 156082 084 059 004 00
203830 2748N 07615W 6971 03008 9885 +103 +035 155075 077 059 003 00
203900 2746N 07617W 6968 03006 9882 +102 +035 153075 076 060 001 00
203930 2745N 07619W 6973 02997 9879 +100 +036 153083 083 062 002 00
204000 2744N 07620W 6966 03000 9868 +105 +037 154082 083 062 001 00
204030 2743N 07621W 6970 02995 9865 +105 +038 154084 085 065 002 00
204100 2742N 07622W 6964 02998 9859 +106 +038 152083 085 066 001 03
204130 2741N 07623W 6971 02983 9854 +106 +039 152085 086 067 003 00
204200 2740N 07624W 6970 02980 9840 +111 +040 150084 085 068 001 03
204230 2739N 07626W 6965 02978 9839 +107 +041 149084 085 069 001 00
204300 2738N 07627W 6971 02969 9842 +102 +041 151092 095 069 005 00
204330 2737N 07628W 6962 02975 9832 +106 +041 150089 091 071 007 00
204400 2736N 07629W 6970 02961 9824 +107 +041 152083 085 069 004 00
204430 2735N 07630W 6966 02959 9811 +114 +042 152078 079 070 003 00
204500 2734N 07631W 6972 02945 9802 +116 +043 151079 080 071 005 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252038
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 05 20110825
202900 2613N 08014W 7421 02625 0042 +136 +050 346036 037 /// /// 03
202930 2613N 08011W 7407 02637 0044 +130 +055 347037 038 /// /// 03
203000 2612N 08009W 7427 02614 0042 +130 +055 346038 039 /// /// 03
203030 2611N 08006W 7447 02589 0039 +132 +060 346039 039 /// /// 03
203100 2611N 08003W 7402 02637 0034 +130 +062 348040 040 /// /// 03
203130 2610N 08001W 7424 02609 0032 +131 +054 346038 038 /// /// 03
203200 2610N 07958W 7454 02573 0030 +131 +078 339037 040 /// /// 03
203230 2610N 07956W 7460 02567 0025 +131 +112 342039 041 033 000 03
203300 2609N 07953W 7464 02561 0025 +134 +103 339037 038 032 000 00
203330 2609N 07951W 7469 02555 0023 +133 +117 339037 038 031 000 00
203400 2608N 07949W 7462 02560 0024 +129 +126 343041 043 032 000 00
203430 2608N 07946W 7434 02591 0020 +130 +130 341042 042 033 000 00
203500 2607N 07944W 7463 02556 0017 +130 +131 340037 040 034 000 00
203530 2607N 07941W 7459 02558 0017 +128 +130 340045 049 035 000 00
203600 2607N 07939W 7460 02555 0016 +128 +128 340047 048 035 001 00
203630 2606N 07937W 7463 02551 0014 +130 +121 339050 051 033 000 00
203700 2606N 07934W 7456 02556 0010 +131 +116 337052 052 031 000 00
203730 2605N 07932W 7454 02557 0011 +129 +116 335053 054 032 000 00
203800 2605N 07929W 7453 02558 0005 +135 +109 339050 053 031 000 03
203830 2604N 07927W 7454 02556 0003 +136 +099 340045 047 032 000 00

[Jevo]

Window taping is so 60ish. I guess that's the last time they dealt with a tropical system.

Nothing stops a 2x4 whipping through the air @ 100mph like some good ole fashioned masking tape..

glad to see a center here on IR now.. Now if she would only get under way.. that would be greaaaat

[Ivanhater]

Attention Members

This is a very busy time. Please do not post one worded posts. Mods have been busy deleting posts not related to Irene. As you can imagine many people are coming to S2K to get useful information regarding Irene.

[Blown Away]

Looks like N on radar or a wobble N.

[mf_dolphin]

Just created a Facebook page where people can post storm reports, photos and videos. Hope it is not a TOS violation to post the link here.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Hurrican ... 5739680763

Since you're "media" we'll let it slide. Maybe put in a shameless plug for the board sometime ok ?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND
PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

[SunnyThoughts]

Man she's big, and the center is becoming more discernible

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252048
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 06 20110825
203900 2604N 07924W 7454 02554 0007 +132 +093 339044 044 030 000 00
203930 2604N 07922W 7454 02551 0002 +134 +099 342048 049 030 000 00
204000 2603N 07919W 7455 02548 9997 +135 +096 344052 054 029 000 00
204030 2603N 07917W 7454 02547 9998 +133 +093 344055 056 031 000 00
204100 2602N 07914W 7456 02543 0000 +128 +098 341056 056 033 000 00
204130 2602N 07912W 7455 02542 0000 +126 +100 339057 057 031 000 00
204200 2601N 07910W 7457 02541 0004 +121 +103 339056 057 033 000 00
204230 2601N 07907W 7455 02539 0002 +119 +109 338054 055 033 000 00
204300 2601N 07905W 7455 02537 9998 +119 +121 337053 053 033 000 00
204330 2600N 07902W 7457 02535 9997 +120 +120 335052 052 035 000 00
204400 2600N 07900W 7439 02555 9995 +120 +115 332050 051 035 001 00
204430 2600N 07857W 7407 02590 9993 +120 +112 329052 053 036 000 00
204500 2559N 07855W 7409 02585 9991 +121 +113 326051 052 036 000 00
204530 2559N 07852W 7413 02578 9985 +125 +112 323050 051 039 000 00
204600 2559N 07850W 7414 02577 9980 +128 +110 321051 052 040 000 00
204630 2558N 07847W 7416 02575 9980 +127 +110 322055 056 040 000 00
204700 2559N 07845W 7417 02568 9974 +130 +109 322053 055 040 001 00
204730 2600N 07843W 7412 02571 9967 +133 +108 323055 056 042 002 00
204800 2601N 07841W 7411 02571 9967 +130 +120 324055 056 043 004 00
204830 2603N 07840W 7416 02563 9962 +130 +122 319056 058 043 004 00

[ConvergenceZone]

So I'm thinking if the winds are less on the next advisory, that they will also lower the strength at landfall....

[Meteorcane]

Based on the Recon reports, I would guess the intensity right now is 85 kt.

Yep I would agree the wind maxima are not terribly impressive however the size of the storm is impressive especially on the east side, strong tropical storm force to hurricane force for a good distance in that direction

[CronkPSU]

so the eye is popping back out but it has lost a ton of convection and intensity in the outflow in the last 90 minutes...so i am not sure if it is strengthening or weakening???

[Blown Away]

NHC track moving more over mainland NC which could reduce the wind effects for the NE states.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252055
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 33 20110825
204530 2732N 07633W 6967 02945 9815 +099 +044 147082 085 071 011 00
204600 2731N 07634W 6968 02941 9804 +105 +044 152085 086 072 004 00
204630 2730N 07635W 6964 02938 9783 +115 +044 151086 088 073 003 00
204700 2729N 07636W 6964 02931 9777 +115 +044 151091 093 070 004 00
204730 2728N 07637W 6968 02919 9770 +115 +044 150093 096 072 005 00
204800 2727N 07638W 6968 02911 9762 +114 +045 148098 099 074 005 00
204830 2726N 07639W 6966 02908 9755 +113 +045 147096 097 079 003 00
204900 2725N 07641W 6966 02902 9746 +115 +046 146094 095 077 004 00
204930 2724N 07642W 6966 02893 9743 +110 +046 144095 096 075 005 00
205000 2723N 07643W 6967 02882 9728 +113 +047 143095 096 077 005 00
205030 2722N 07644W 6970 02870 9717 +115 +048 142093 096 081 007 00
205100 2721N 07645W 6965 02868 9707 +115 +048 142091 091 080 003 00
205130 2720N 07647W 6965 02854 9686 +122 +048 144092 094 082 007 00
205200 2719N 07648W 6972 02831 9689 +106 +049 145099 100 083 008 00
205230 2718N 07649W 6970 02823 9659 +119 +049 143094 099 085 014 00
205300 2717N 07650W 6966 02812 9660 +104 +047 143089 093 086 029 00
205330 2716N 07651W 6955 02813 9642 +106 +047 147083 085 089 020 00
205400 2715N 07653W 6966 02781 9617 +114 +047 146083 084 086 010 00
205430 2714N 07654W 6973 02759 9596 +119 +046 143077 081 084 012 00
205500 2712N 07655W 6965 02756 9576 +127 +046 146067 072 083 009 00
$$
;


Note: I'm not confident with my satellite layer position, I'm trying to fix it