ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

NHC track moving more over mainland NC which could reduce the wind effects for the NE states.

But will increase the surge into DC. and New York City, which has been the biggest fear.

[ConvergenceZone]

so the eye is popping back out but it has lost a ton of convection and intensity in the outflow in the last 90 minutes...so i am not sure if it is strengthening or weakening???

This is suprising, it should be intensifying, not weakening....Perhaps they will need to bring the strength at landfall way down if this trend continues. If it's not going to increase in intensity now, I don't see how conditions are going to be that much better later....

[Dave]

NOAA 2

[SNOW_JOKE]

Squall about to hit the Fort Lauderdale cam again. the first one was 'interesting' bringing some TS gusts, we'll see what this one gives now that Irene is slightly North.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/fortlauderdale/

[jabman98]

If it's weakening now instead of intensifying, why would that be happening? I'm confused.

[Meteorcane]

so the eye is popping back out but it has lost a ton of convection and intensity in the outflow in the last 90 minutes...so i am not sure if it is strengthening or weakening???

This is suprising, it should be intensifying, not weakening....Perhaps they will need to bring the strength at landfall way down if this trend continues. If it's not going to increase in intensity now, I don't see how conditions are going to be that much better later....

Actually recent Recon pass showed some of the better sfmr winds I have seen in the last few hours so hold off on that weakening just yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

Track has shifted west again per latest update... inland now at NC.
Although only forecasting a cat 2, which is better than a cat 3 or 4

[CronkPSU]

how many times have we seen the NHC admit they have little confidence in their intensity prediction...there is a hot tower cell to the north starting to wrap around in the last frame so maybe it will re-strengthen but it is strange

[Dave C]

on melbourne long range radar it appears to have 3 eyewall bands. but the radar can't see the inner 2 bands as well due to the outermost band blocking a lot of the radar beam. wonder witch band will
become dominant?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252058
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 07 20110825
204900 2604N 07838W 7416 02559 9961 +128 +124 317054 055 047 001 00
204930 2605N 07837W 7434 02537 9961 +129 +123 317055 057 047 000 00
205000 2607N 07836W 7520 02435 9957 +133 +128 317051 051 046 001 00
205030 2608N 07834W 7507 02444 9950 +133 +127 320053 055 047 000 00
205100 2610N 07833W 7516 02430 9942 +137 +128 318056 060 046 000 00
205130 2611N 07831W 7513 02430 9934 +141 +129 312063 064 046 001 00
205200 2613N 07830W 7517 02423 9921 +151 +124 312061 063 046 000 00
205230 2614N 07828W 7513 02423 9928 +138 +131 314056 057 046 000 00
205300 2616N 07827W 7512 02420 9925 +137 +130 315058 060 048 002 00
205330 2617N 07825W 7514 02413 9919 +138 +130 315057 057 047 001 00
205400 2619N 07824W 7511 02413 9912 +142 +123 320056 057 048 000 00
205430 2620N 07823W 7514 02406 9908 +143 +124 320055 056 048 000 00
205500 2621N 07821W 7515 02400 9899 +147 +123 319051 051 046 001 03
205530 2623N 07819W 7513 02399 9894 +145 +127 323051 051 047 000 00
205600 2624N 07817W 7515 02391 9887 +146 +134 322049 050 047 000 00
205630 2625N 07815W 7517 02384 9878 +149 +139 325052 053 047 002 00
205700 2626N 07813W 7516 02380 9870 +152 +141 325052 054 049 001 00
205730 2627N 07811W 7514 02376 9858 +159 +140 322052 056 048 004 00
205800 2628N 07809W 7515 02372 9859 +154 +140 321060 063 056 005 00
205830 2629N 07807W 7517 02366 9859 +146 +144 317068 070 057 007 00

[Ivanhater]

Eye is certainly intensifying..getting bigger as well. Could see some nice strengthening tonight as the ERC is almost done

[Brent]

[Mello1]

I am sitting at my desk yelling at my monitor "Get that child away from the water"

http://www.windjammerresort.com/webcam.html

Pure Darwin going on right now

I know. I can't believe these folk are trying to surf during this rainband. Jeez.

'Just an opinion. Not an expert.'

[maxintensity]

AF eyewall penetration did not show any double wind max this pass. That is encouraging.

[Dave]

NOAA 2

[shaggy]

I'm now under an inland hurricane WARNING. The slight shift to the west now has the eye making landfall 60 miles due south of me. If current track were to verify I would be within 30 miles of the eye. Now saying winds could gust 70-90 here according to local news.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252105
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 34 20110825
205530 2711N 07657W 6967 02743 9540 +150 +046 147062 064 072 003 03
205600 2710N 07658W 6965 02735 9526 +152 +048 144056 058 058 001 03
205630 2709N 07659W 6970 02717 9516 +150 +050 144050 052 048 000 03
205700 2708N 07701W 6959 02721 9499 +156 +053 144044 046 043 003 03
205730 2707N 07702W 6973 02700 9490 +160 +056 146037 039 039 000 03
205800 2706N 07704W 6963 02702 9476 +164 +059 149029 033 038 001 03
205830 2705N 07705W 6966 02693 9476 +160 +060 156018 021 031 002 03
205900 2704N 07707W 6962 02698 9480 +157 +061 173009 013 028 002 03
205930 2703N 07709W 6970 02691 9483 +155 +062 188002 006 026 000 00
210000 2703N 07711W 6969 02695 9487 +151 +063 331006 009 026 001 03
210030 2702N 07712W 6957 02713 9489 +155 +065 316014 017 027 002 00
210100 2700N 07714W 6969 02706 9497 +155 +066 313020 021 034 000 00
210130 2659N 07715W 6965 02717 9505 +154 +065 310030 035 049 003 03
210200 2658N 07716W 6965 02728 9518 +152 +065 312050 059 058 002 00
210230 2656N 07718W 6972 02738 9539 +151 +065 307065 067 058 002 00
210300 2655N 07719W 6967 02764 9555 +155 +063 309070 071 058 002 03
210330 2654N 07720W 6969 02774 9569 +157 +061 308067 069 057 002 00
210400 2653N 07721W 6967 02793 9588 +154 +061 307065 065 056 003 00
210430 2652N 07723W 6966 02809 9609 +148 +061 307065 065 057 002 03
210500 2651N 07724W 6966 02820 9618 +152 +063 305064 064 055 000 03
$$
;

[imetrice]

window tape is stupid and it doesnt come off afterwards, get some wood

True.... Someone should show the file tape of debris crashing through windows....tape is no protection from damage/injury.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I897 using Tapatalk

[Meteorcane]

I'm now under an inland hurricane WARNING. The slight shift to the west now has the eye making landfall 60 miles due south of me. If current track were to verify I would be within 30 miles of the eye. Now saying winds could gust 70-90 here according to local news.

How is inland NC in terms of trees? We had roughly similar gusts here about 60 miles inland in the houston area during Ike and they caused extensive tree damage

[shaggy]

I'm now under an inland hurricane WARNING. The slight shift to the west now has the eye making landfall 60 miles due south of me. If current track were to verify I would be within 30 miles of the eye. Now saying winds could gust 70-90 here according to local news.

How is inland NC in terms of trees? We had roughly similar gusts here about 60 miles inland in the houston area during Ike and they caused extensive tree damage

Largely forested with hundred of million acres of weyerhauser pine farms. My town Greenville is known for its trees! 5th street down by the college is lined with hundreds of 100 yr old oaks!