ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Plane found lower pressure on second pass,1003.5 mbs.

Code: Select all

0035

[NDG]

1003mb pressure, and further west, 71.93 W

113630 1706N 07156W 8427 01532 0030 +202 +161 322019 025 020 003 03

[CronkPSU]

that's what I was thinking earlier. I also noticed from the advisory they didn't mention possibly moving the cone west this time.

don't they only mention that at the 11/5 updates?

[CourierPR]

I don't believe there was any clear indication of a NW turn yesterday. The NHC never mentioned NW in advisories.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

see earlier discussion re: possibility of Emily caught in a little eddy behind the mountains of Hispanola, and unable to feel that weakness to the north.

pro's, is this a possibility?

[mutley]

Normally this would be the thinking, but Emily has already stalled twice without turning.

Indeed. Emily has a mind of her own. Also, stalling right there is bad news for Haiti.

[artist]

that's what I was thinking earlier. I also noticed from the advisory they didn't mention possibly moving the cone west this time.

don't they only mention that at the 11/5 updates?

you're right, come to think of it. Thanks for bringing that up.

[hurricanefloyd5]

1003mb pressure, and further west, 71.93 W

113630 1706N 07156W 8427 01532 0030 +202 +161 322019 025 020 003 03

what dose this mean it relocated farther west or moving west what?

[Kory]

Looks like the NHC shifted the cone back east in sync with the models. Her stationary status will allow her to move more north whenever she decides to move...

[NDG]

I don't know if I agree with their "stationary"
Clearly she has been movign this morning at around 7 mph westward.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Is VDM S of 5am position?

[NDG]

1003mb pressure, and further west, 71.93 W

113630 1706N 07156W 8427 01532 0030 +202 +161 322019 025 020 003 03

what dose this mean it relocated farther west or moving west what?

Her longitude is almost 72 west, her recon fix before 2 AM was 71.2 west, so she has clearly moved in the past 6 hours, she is not stationary.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the 06z run the HWRF was just about the same from the previous run, and the GFDL was a tick left.

HWRF: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html
GFDL: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

[ronjon]

When in doubt split difference? I see the 06z GFS splits the vorticity into two pieces - one going up the eastern Bahamas and the other west across Cuba. What a joke? I can't remember the last time there was so much uncertainty with a system. Perhaps because Emily has never been vertically stacked, its not responding to the upper air pattern.

[NDG]

Looks like the NHC shifted the cone back west in sync with the models. Her stationary status will allow her to move more north whenever she decides to move...

Did you meant to say "east"?

[Blown Away]

5am: 17.3N/71.7W
8am: 17.1N/71.8W

So, .2 south, .1 west since 5am??

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041146
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 17 20110804
113630 1706N 07156W 8427 01532 0030 +202 +161 322019 025 020 003 03
113700 1707N 07155W 8433 01524 0032 +195 +163 327011 014 015 004 03
113730 1708N 07153W 8433 01519 0031 +189 +164 321005 007 015 005 03
113800 1709N 07152W 8429 01523 0034 +182 +164 223005 006 020 004 03
113830 1709N 07150W 8429 01523 0038 +176 +164 203010 015 027 004 03
113900 1709N 07148W 8429 01524 0046 +163 +163 197020 023 027 006 03
113930 1709N 07147W 8433 01521 0058 +150 //// 200032 035 031 013 05
114000 1710N 07145W 8434 01523 0069 +141 //// 189038 043 045 033 05
114030 1710N 07143W 8449 01512 0077 +140 //// 176037 041 046 017 01
114100 1710N 07141W 8422 01550 0085 +139 //// 177041 044 044 013 01
114130 1711N 07140W 8422 01555 0083 +147 +133 174043 045 040 016 03
114200 1711N 07138W 8429 01549 0085 +153 +127 174043 044 039 010 03
114230 1711N 07136W 8441 01545 0088 +153 +124 181042 044 042 008 03
114300 1711N 07135W 8424 01560 0086 +160 +122 180042 043 041 007 00
114330 1712N 07133W 8436 01550 0089 +160 +121 180042 042 040 005 00
114400 1712N 07131W 8428 01558 0091 +160 +121 183040 041 039 004 03
114430 1712N 07130W 8434 01555 0096 +155 +122 183040 041 038 006 03
114500 1712N 07128W 8426 01562 0101 +148 +122 182041 041 042 012 00
114530 1713N 07126W 8439 01552 0108 +141 +122 173044 046 039 016 03
114600 1713N 07124W 8429 01564 0100 +158 +120 173046 047 039 009 03
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041156
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 18 20110804
114630 1713N 07123W 8430 01567 0111 +141 +118 169037 042 046 023 03
114700 1713N 07121W 8418 01578 0113 +140 +116 175036 038 045 016 00
114730 1714N 07119W 8437 01558 0108 +152 +114 170039 041 039 010 03
114800 1714N 07118W 8433 01567 0108 +156 +113 171045 049 037 007 00
114830 1714N 07116W 8426 01574 0113 +150 +112 171050 051 035 008 03
114900 1714N 07114W 8430 01569 0113 +149 +112 171047 048 033 008 03
114930 1715N 07113W 8434 01568 0118 +146 +112 172048 049 030 008 00
115000 1715N 07111W 8433 01571 0121 +143 +112 167045 047 031 008 03
115030 1715N 07110W 8423 01583 0123 +142 +111 166044 045 032 009 03
115100 1715N 07108W 8432 01573 0120 +148 +110 165045 047 032 009 00
115130 1716N 07106W 8425 01580 0117 +154 +109 165047 049 029 008 00
115200 1716N 07105W 8429 01577 0113 +160 +108 166051 055 028 007 00
115230 1716N 07103W 8425 01578 0117 +152 +108 172048 053 033 011 03
115300 1716N 07101W 8392 01612 0127 +133 +108 179037 041 042 018 03
115330 1717N 07100W 8373 01630 0133 +125 +108 144026 041 030 049 03
115400 1717N 07058W 8414 01588 0146 +106 //// 151040 041 037 046 05
115430 1717N 07057W 8420 01589 0129 +138 +106 162035 038 041 020 03
115500 1717N 07055W 8435 01571 0119 +151 +103 162033 034 036 007 03
115530 1717N 07053W 8438 01566 0121 +146 +103 157031 032 034 009 03
115600 1717N 07052W 8437 01564 0123 +140 +104 149034 037 044 015 03
$$

[Kory]

Looks like the NHC shifted the cone back west in sync with the models. Her stationary status will allow her to move more north whenever she decides to move...

Did you meant to say "east"?

Yes I did...lol. All these shifts and directions can confuse somebody.

[cycloneye]

TAFB dvorak numbers are at 3.5.

AL, 05, 201108040545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1720N, 7100W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, embedded in off white = DT 3.5