ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[NDG]

5am: 17.3N/71.7W
8am: 17.1N/71.8W

So, .2 south, .1 west since 5am??

Remember that her 5 AM position by the NHC in their advisory was an estimated position, they did not have a recon flying around at that time to confirm her position.

[Kory]

Looking at the 12 hour loop satelitte, she does appear to have moved a little to the west over night.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/11:37:50Z
B. 17 deg 08 min N
071 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1452 m
D. 31 kt
E. 264 deg 40 nm
F. 316 deg 26 kt
G. 241 deg 4 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 21 C / 1521 m
J. 21 C / 1519 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1105A EMILY OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT E QUAD 11:52:20Z

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041206
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 19 20110804
115630 1716N 07051W 8443 01558 0123 +138 +105 143037 040 046 018 00
115700 1715N 07050W 8446 01557 0124 +132 +107 156041 043 052 041 03
115730 1714N 07049W 8419 01581 0127 +129 +106 146040 043 046 024 03
115800 1714N 07048W 8425 01578 0121 +143 +105 149042 043 039 019 00
115830 1713N 07047W 8436 01569 0126 +137 +103 152041 043 032 012 00
115900 1712N 07045W 8435 01573 0121 +152 +102 150038 041 030 008 03
115930 1711N 07044W 8435 01579 0118 +166 +102 160043 044 029 008 03
120000 1711N 07043W 8431 01586 0122 +165 +103 160038 040 030 008 03
120030 1711N 07041W 8427 01591 0128 +162 +104 159035 036 029 008 00
120100 1711N 07040W 8431 01588 0136 +151 +107 152036 036 029 008 00
120130 1711N 07038W 8430 01594 0138 +152 +109 156036 036 031 008 00
120200 1711N 07037W 8333 01668 0115 +150 +111 158037 038 032 008 03
120230 1711N 07035W 7951 02073 0111 +130 +111 165038 041 /// /// 03
120300 1711N 07033W 7615 02432 0106 +109 +108 171045 047 /// /// 03
120330 1711N 07032W 7280 02808 0109 +084 //// 173049 050 /// /// 05
120400 1711N 07030W 6999 03146 //// +063 //// 175051 052 030 006 05
120430 1712N 07028W 6945 03218 //// +056 //// 175051 052 031 005 05
120500 1713N 07026W 6977 03186 0147 +058 //// 176051 051 030 005 05
120530 1713N 07024W 6970 03197 0139 +063 //// 176049 050 030 005 01
120600 1714N 07022W 6970 03199 0127 +077 +060 174048 048 025 005 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:37:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°08'N 71°53'W (17.1333N 71.8833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 102 miles (164 km) to the SSE (163°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,452m (4,764ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 316° at 26kts (From the NW at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z

[cycloneye]

Winds increasing per second VDM.

Maximum Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 041205
XXAA 54128 99172 70719 04471 99006 26212 21013 00050 25815 21516
92734 21002 21016 85467 18619 20007 88999 77999
31313 09608 81138
61616 AF305 1105A EMILY OB 07
62626 SPL 1716N07185W 1140 MBL WND 21517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21014
005843 WL150 21516 084 REL 1715N07185W 113812 SPG 1716N07185W 114
026 =
XXBB 54128 99172 70719 04471 00006 26212 11929 21202 22850 18619
33843 18018
21212 00006 21013 11996 21516 22944 21018 33920 22016 44896 20513
55882 22011 66869 20011 77864 20510 88843 20005
31313 09608 81138
61616 AF305 1105A EMILY OB 07
62626 SPL 1716N07185W 1140 MBL WND 21517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21014
005843 WL150 21516 084 REL 1715N07185W 113812 SPG 1716N07185W 114
026 =

[hurricanefloyd5]

the longer and the more she stalls the farther west she will go right?

[Blown Away]

Watching that deep cell right over the 8am position (17.1N/71.8W) and it appears to be moving westward and has crossed 72W IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

she is moving... but not NW yet.... going to pass yet another forecast position to the south ...

[Blown Away]

Anybody suprised no TS Watch for Jamaica, convection <100 miles away, I know the TS force winds are much farther away near center.

[wzrgirl1]

Watching that deep cell right over the 8am position (17.1N/71.8W) and it appears to be moving westward and has crossed 72W IMO.

That's still about 480 miles east of Miami's coordinate of 80.W if I am figuring correctly, still plenty of time to turn right?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041216
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 20 20110804
120630 1715N 07020W 6970 03199 0128 +078 +057 172047 048 025 005 03
120700 1716N 07018W 6968 03203 0129 +079 +056 172045 045 028 005 03
120730 1716N 07016W 6967 03206 0135 +074 +055 172046 046 028 006 00
120800 1717N 07015W 6965 03206 0138 +070 +056 170046 046 030 008 03
120830 1718N 07013W 6973 03198 0136 +072 +055 167045 046 029 008 00
120900 1719N 07011W 6965 03207 0136 +072 +053 166044 044 028 008 00
120930 1719N 07009W 6967 03203 0135 +074 +052 166043 044 028 007 00
121000 1720N 07008W 6903 03271 0128 +066 +050 164043 044 028 006 00
121030 1721N 07006W 6659 03564 0122 +049 +049 167046 047 026 006 03
121100 1722N 07004W 6386 03905 0131 +022 //// 174047 048 031 007 05
121130 1723N 07002W 6149 04216 //// +000 //// 178048 050 038 014 05
121200 1723N 07000W 5885 04548 //// -025 //// 171041 047 039 015 05
121230 1724N 06958W 5600 04961 //// -028 //// 176039 045 030 028 05
121300 1724N 06956W 5433 05195 0240 -047 //// 184037 042 039 032 05
121330 1724N 06954W 5234 05483 0254 -051 //// 182035 038 037 017 05
121400 1724N 06951W 5017 05825 0277 -051 //// 186040 043 032 007 05
121430 1724N 06949W 4884 06038 0293 -062 //// 186038 039 026 006 01
121500 1723N 06947W 4779 06209 0304 -071 //// 190031 033 028 006 01
121530 1723N 06945W 4687 06360 0313 -083 //// 194024 027 028 004 05
121600 1722N 06943W 4579 06539 0323 -093 //// 200020 021 025 003 01
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 19:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 19:

[USTropics]

In case no one has read dr. Carvers thoughts earlier this morning (he's filling in for Jeff masters blog):

According to the most recent forecast issued by NHC, Emily was forecast to be at 17.5N, 72.5W at 2AM EDT, which is a point 68 miles west-northwest of it's assigned location. This indicates that Emily is not curving northwards as expected. This makes me more skeptical of the computer model forecasts that pull Emily to the northwards sharply towards the southeast coast of Florida before recurving out to sea. All of the 00Z global models (NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC) are in rough agreement.

The forecast tracks provided by the suite of simpler models, the Beta and Advection Models and CLIPER, disagree. They have Emily taking a much more gradual turn to the north, thus moving northwest across Cuba. Given that these models have done a better job of predicting Emily's westwards track, I'm inclined to place more confidence in their predictions. However, the further west Emily goes, the chance that Emily makes landfall in Florida (due to a recurve) goes up. People with interests in Cuba and south Florida should keep an eye on this storm.

[Javlin]

Looks may be deceiving but on unehanced IFR it looks to be crawling W don't know

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Aric Dunn]

Geeez these models are ridiculous.. everyone I just looked at for 6z show basically a NNW motion starting now... storms dont do that.. its gradual.. these models are all off... not even looking at 12z... Ill look at them once she starts turning...

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN W.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041226
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 21 20110804
121630 1722N 06941W 4477 06709 0331 -100 //// 214018 020 024 002 01
121700 1721N 06939W 4370 06894 0341 -109 //// 230014 016 023 002 01
121730 1721N 06937W 4286 07045 0351 -118 //// 247017 018 019 003 01
121800 1720N 06934W 4191 07212 0359 -129 //// 242016 017 024 002 05
121830 1720N 06932W 4081 07414 0372 -139 //// 225015 016 020 005 05
121900 1719N 06930W 3984 07603 0391 -148 //// 212017 018 019 002 01
121930 1719N 06928W 3897 07771 0403 -158 //// 194018 019 008 002 05
122000 1719N 06925W 3811 07940 0416 -167 //// 172021 023 011 000 01
122030 1719N 06923W 3760 08043 0425 -178 //// 150022 024 015 001 01
122100 1719N 06921W 3756 08049 0425 -178 //// 145018 019 017 000 01
122130 1719N 06918W 3759 08042 0421 -179 //// 163019 023 025 004 05
122200 1719N 06916W 3755 08047 0418 -180 //// 135026 027 030 003 01
122230 1720N 06913W 3758 08041 0418 -180 //// 126024 025 032 003 05
122300 1720N 06910W 3760 08038 0420 -180 //// 118020 021 030 002 01
122330 1720N 06908W 3759 08045 0424 -181 //// 117019 019 029 003 01
122400 1720N 06905W 3759 08046 0425 -180 //// 117015 017 028 003 05
122430 1721N 06902W 3759 08045 0425 -184 //// 133013 013 027 003 05
122500 1721N 06900W 3757 08050 0426 -185 //// 124016 017 029 002 05
122530 1721N 06857W 3759 08044 0424 -182 //// 117016 017 028 002 01
122600 1722N 06854W 3758 08044 0423 -185 //// 114016 016 028 002 01
$$
;