ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,this mornings mission doesn't have problems.

Well,more problems it seems as plane is returning to St Croix.

do you know what time the next flight is in eastern time cycloneye?

11:45 EDT

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72     
       A. 04/1800Z,05/0000Z         
       B. AFXXX 1105A EMILY       
       C. 04/1530Z                 
       D. 20.0N 74.0W             
       E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 

[Bocadude85]

Here's my take on it, the NHC probably won't keep shifting their track back to the west a little, then back to the east. They shifted it west slightly yesterday and now this morning its farther off the coast to the east. I think the NHC will wait for some uniformity in the models before they make any significant movements, if any is needed.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You would think so but thus far they have been following the TCVN.. if it shifts west then they do.. if it shifts east then they do... but I have no idea what they will do this time.

[maxx9512]

I think for the most part, when looking back at the NHC's performance (outside of maybe intensity) the job
they do ends up being great. They do (like all of us) miss something. We can all think of one or so that
they have been late on calling the track. This storm, especially the way she's been acting, might be one of those. I'm not AT ALL
putting down the NHC but it makes me wonder if this one might end up being one of those storms. Just my thoughts.

[RL3AO]

So pro mets, if Emily keeps wondering around slowly, would this cause her to miss the weakness and get pushed west, or would it waiting so long for the weakness cause her to turn almost straight north and go over the SE Bahamas and out to sea?

[cycloneye]

So pro mets, if Emily keeps wondering around slowly, would this cause her to miss the weakness and get pushed west, or would it waiting so long for the weakness cause her to turn almost straight north and go over the SE Bahamas and out to sea?

Or if it continues in this place for 2-3 days,upwelling causing waters to cool may become a factor.

[Kory]

I don't understand exactly why Emily is going to recurve out to sea. Can someone tell me why?

There is going to be a trough that digs down and creates a weakness that Emily is going to follow and get pulled out to sea.

[tailgater]

Watch this, steering winds the last 5 days.

The trough almost looks to have lifted out on the last 2 frames, the weakness is still there but I don't know for how much longer. I think it better go north soon or we might have another Tex/Mex storm.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[CronkPSU]

none of the models had forecasted it to stall like it has the past 12-16 hours did they?

[Blown Away]

Notice many of the GFS ensembles show SFL landfall, none showed that yesterday. Not a big deal, just an observation.

[NDG]

Even if the 12z models that bring Emily into S FL are correct, she would be spending a lot of time over Cuba, so she would have not much time to restrengthen before tracking over S FL, except for the EGR2.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like slight ridging to the north of Emily.

Outflow is looking better as well as her center is now under convection. The best she has look yet, IMO.

[artist]

[/quote]
do you know what time the next flight is in eastern time cycloneye? [/quote]

11:30 AM EDT

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72     
       A. 04/1800Z,05/0000Z         
       B. AFXXX 1105A EMILY       
       C. 04/1530Z                 
       D. 20.0N 74.0W             
       E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 

[/quote]
thank you. I will try to be here to post obs. If anyone could post the images I would be most grateful.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I asked this earlier this morning, but looking for pro's (or anyone) to comment...

Could Emily be sheltered from feeling the weakness to the north by Hispanola's mountains since she is still being steered by the low levels as a weak system? Is it possible that she could be stuck in a low level "eddy" south of Hispanola, formed by the flow around the mountains from the otherwise pull coming from the north? This could help explain her slow speed/momentary stalls as well.

[NDG]

none of the models had forecasted it to stall like it has the past 12-16 hours did they?

At least not the usual GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, etc that the NHC look at the most.

[TheBurn]

12:30Z... hasn't really moved much since last night!

[Aric Dunn]

I guess at this point if she does not turn today that the slight ridging that the models forecast build briefly... might be enough move even farther west and pass between Jamaica and cuba then start turning towards eastern gulf..

[AHS2011]

To add on to my previous question, if Emily stays in the Caribbean long enough, is there a chance that it could miss the trough?

[tailgater]

Better turn soon. Or Jamicia needs warnings.

[Kory]

I wouldn't rule out any possibilities and here is one. If she doesn't start turning, she could get caught under the ridge that has been dominating the southeast US. In that case, she would be on her way to Mexico. The BAMs were kind of hinting at that. Just a thought...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I asked this earlier this morning, but looking for pro's (or anyone) to comment...

Could Emily be sheltered from feeling the weakness to the north by Hispanola's mountains since she is still being steered by the low levels as a weak system? Is it possible that she could be stuck in a low level "eddy" south of Hispanola, formed by the flow around the mountains from the otherwise pull coming from the north? This could help explain her slow speed/momentary stalls as well.

I think there is just not much steering where she is, the weakness is to her NW but there is nothing to push her that way at this time, models still show a building ridge to her north and east coming in from the Atlantic, so eventually she has to move. But will she move NW or will she move more WNW.
If the ridging is not strong enough she will move NW, if the ridging is strong enough she will move WNW and take the more westerly recurve, IMO.