ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Robjohn53]

This thing has got everyone scratching there heads, Here where I live I see Port Canaveral is gearing up
to maybe move there ships. I imagine the pro's are going crazy trying to sort this out.

Robjohn53

[Kory]

To add on to my previous question, if Emily stays in the Caribbean long enough, is there a chance that it could miss the trough?

Yes as there is a ridge building in from the NE. She could continue westward slowly and get caught under the ridge dominating the Southeast US and be on her way to Mexico from there.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

I asked this earlier this morning, but looking for pro's (or anyone) to comment...

Could Emily be sheltered from feeling the weakness to the north by Hispanola's mountains since she is still being steered by the low levels as a weak system? Is it possible that she could be stuck in a low level "eddy" south of Hispanola, formed by the flow around the mountains from the otherwise pull coming from the north? This could help explain her slow speed/momentary stalls as well.

I have no formal education in fluid dynamics, but air pressure of the weakness (air wanting to move towards lower pressure) would make me think that it would transcend mountains, but like I said, its an interesting thought.

[KWT]

"EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI"

Whoa. That's a lot of rain. Jeeze.

Yep that is actually a really worrying amount of rainfall, muslides/landslides to be expected I think...

Slowed right down thats for sure, truth is iot probably is moving very slowly close to 280...

I swear its in almost the same place as it was last night!

[Blown Away]

I guess at this point if she does not turn today that the slight ridging that the models forecast build briefly... might be enough move even farther west and pass between Jamaica and cuba then start turning towards eastern gulf..

Hard to overlook the NHC's confidence that Emily will be turning N between E Cuba/Haiti, my concern is that perfect path W of Andros up the Gulfstream and swipe WPB, IMO that is enough time to become a hurricane.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I guess at this point if she does not turn today that the slight ridging that the models forecast build briefly... might be enough move even farther west and pass between Jamaica and cuba then start turning towards eastern gulf..

This is the path I think will happen too at this point...shooting the gap between jamaica & cuba before crossing Cuba. (slight west adjustment to path I called 3 days ago) I believe this since in the short term, once she misses the connection with the trough, she will be "released" from teh eddy she is caught in and be able to resume her course in accordance with the low level sterring currents, which shoudl take her west and even occassionally wsw. However, as conditions are becoming more conducive for development in the area, she will strengthen and start being steered by mid and upper level currents, which should take her over central to central-west cuba. Bringing her into southeastern gulf. Without real strong currents, she will be slowly drifting north until the next trough/weakness comes along to nudge her northeast and back across the penninsula.

However, if she is significantly weakened over cuba, she could continue in the low level flow and head westard still, and into central america. if she can strengthen back up big time crossing the water though, then likley Don like path.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

I asked this earlier this morning, but looking for pro's (or anyone) to comment...

Could Emily be sheltered from feeling the weakness to the north by Hispanola's mountains since she is still being steered by the low levels as a weak system? Is it possible that she could be stuck in a low level "eddy" south of Hispanola, formed by the flow around the mountains from the otherwise pull coming from the north? This could help explain her slow speed/momentary stalls as well.

I think there is just not much steering where she is, the weakness is to her NW but there is nothing to push her that way at this time, models still show a building ridge to her north and east coming in from the Atlantic, so eventually she has to move. But will she move NW or will she move more WNW.
If the ridging is not strong enough she will move NW, if the ridging is strong enough she will move WNW and take the more westerly recurve, IMO.

I talked about that yesterday in a post. not sure what page it was on. but it was sometime yesterday afternoon if you want to look for it.

[artist]

I guess at this point if she does not turn today that the slight ridging that the models forecast build briefly... might be enough move even farther west and pass between Jamaica and cuba then start turning towards eastern gulf..

Hard to overlook the NHC's confidence that Emily will be turning N between E Cuba/Haiti, my concern is that perfect path W of Andros up the Gulfstream and swipe WPB, IMO that is enough time to become a hurricane.

yeah, we have seen what the Gulf Stream can do to a storm in a short amount of time.

[mf_dolphin]

I asked this earlier this morning, but looking for pro's (or anyone) to comment...

Could Emily be sheltered from feeling the weakness to the north by Hispanola's mountains since she is still being steered by the low levels as a weak system? Is it possible that she could be stuck in a low level "eddy" south of Hispanola, formed by the flow around the mountains from the otherwise pull coming from the north? This could help explain her slow speed/momentary stalls as well.

I think that's a definite possibility to be honest. Emily is stuck in the doldrums

[HurricaneBelle]

I think I've read every post in this thread and I've don't think I've seen anyone mention this - the storm Emily reminds me most of is Ernesto from 2006. The way things are shaping up, this may be the most likely track for Emily:

[mf_dolphin]

Looking at the water vapor loop Emily looks to be taking a gulp of drier air from from teh NW side across Hispaniola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

To add on to my previous question, if Emily stays in the Caribbean long enough, is there a chance that it could miss the trough?

Yes as there is a ridge building in from the NE. She could continue westward slowly and get caught under the ridge dominating the Southeast US and be on her way to Mexico from there.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How would she get "caught under the ridging"? The steering currents around the current ridge she is following would lead her to follow its periphery, which requires her to follow it west and then to the nw and n and finally ne. The 2 ridges don't connect and she wouldn't simply be "passed on" to the other ridge to follow, especially if she is strengthening and drawn naturally more poleward. Its when a storm is drifting around and not already following a ridge that it can get caught by another ridge's steering flow if I understand it correctly. All that said....there is a possibility what you said can happen if Emily gets left behind during her slow movement/stall and the ridge she has been following regresses to the east or northeast quickly, leaving her behind to wander until she can find another steering pattern to be swept into.

[mutley]

Looking at the water vapor loop Emily looks to be taking a gulp of drier air from from teh NW side across Hispaniola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Wow! She took a good beating from it, too. Really knocked her down quite a bit.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the water vapor loop Emily looks to be taking a gulp of drier air from from teh NW side across Hispaniola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

I wonder if it is dry air or the mountians cutting her off as she appears to be moving westward.

[JPmia]

she is moving... but not NW yet.... going to pass yet another forecast position to the south ...

if this keeps up they would be placing TS watches up for southern florida as they said in the 5am advisory.

[Bocadude85]

she is moving... but not NW yet.... going to pass yet another forecast position to the south ...

if this keeps up they would be placing TS watches up for southern florida as they said in the 5am advisory.

I dont know. I have a feeling they would be very reluctant to put up watches.

[artist]

Looking at the water vapor loop Emily looks to be taking a gulp of drier air from from teh NW side across Hispaniola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

I wonder if it is dry air or the mountians cutting her off as she appears to be moving westward.

all I know is I hope it is sparing them from some of the rains they could have.

[JPmia]

she is moving... but not NW yet.... going to pass yet another forecast position to the south ...

if this keeps up they would be placing TS watches up for southern florida as they said in the 5am advisory.

I dont know. I have a feeling they would be very reluctant to put up watches.

True.. a stationary storm would give them more time to decide.

[GCANE]

Same drill everyday.

After sunset, she ramps up.

After sunrise, she ramps down.

What a ragdoll.

[Kory]

Looking at the water vapor loop Emily looks to be taking a gulp of drier air from from teh NW side across Hispaniola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

I wonder if it is dry air or the mountians cutting her off as she appears to be moving westward.

all I know is I hope it is sparing them from some of the rains they could have.

I think Emily is going to continue to struggle with dry air. As she gets closer to the US she may ingest some drier air from the ridge.