ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Same drill everyday.

After sunset, she ramps up.

After sunrise, she ramps down.

What a ragdoll.

It is odd, its like Dmax gives it enough energy to burst through the inherent problems with the area but as soon as that ends that extra energy decreases and its not enough.

To be fair Hispaniola can't be helping...

[Bocadude85]

Looks like she may be on the move again.. still west it looks like..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory in a hour. Yay or nay on sfl watches?

[CronkPSU]

Advisory in a hour. Yay or nay on sfl watches?

nay because it is moving too slowly, yay at 5 PM though

[mf_dolphin]

I would say nay. She's barely moved and they didn't issue them on the last advisory. No need to do it now.

[Bocadude85]

Advisory in a hour. Yay or nay on sfl watches?

nay because it is moving too slowly, yay at 5 PM though

I agree with you.. but in my opinion it doesnt make sense because the NW Bahamas have been under a watch since yesterday and some of those island are 50 miles off the coast of S.Fla

[caneman]

No to So. FL. watched until tomorrow morning if it continues West in my proessional inexperienced opinion.

[SapphireSea]

Being stuck between two areas of ridging with a weakness in between results in what we arr seeing, a collapse of steering currents. A storm will naturally head into the weakness slowly and will accelarate when a trough erodes one of the ridges, or if one of the ridges builds in and fills the weakness and turns the storm into its flow.

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the latest visibles she seems to be on the move again, though slowly, and with a more WNW or N of west component now, maybe the long awaited turn might be starting now.................


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[floridasun78]

you all think emily more stronger 50mph she look good on sat pic this morning

[stormreader]

I guess at this point if she does not turn today that the slight ridging that the models forecast build briefly... might be enough move even farther west and pass between Jamaica and cuba then start turning towards eastern gulf..

This is the path I think will happen too at this point...shooting the gap between jamaica & cuba before crossing Cuba. (slight west adjustment to path I called 3 days ago) I believe this since in the short term, once she misses the connection with the trough, she will be "released" from teh eddy she is caught in and be able to resume her course in accordance with the low level sterring currents, which shoudl take her west and even occassionally wsw. However, as conditions are becoming more conducive for development in the area, she will strengthen and start being steered by mid and upper level currents, which should take her over central to central-west cuba. Bringing her into southeastern gulf. Without real strong currents, she will be slowly drifting north until the next trough/weakness comes along to nudge her northeast and back across the penninsula.

However, if she is significantly weakened over cuba, she could continue in the low level flow and head westard still, and into central america. if she can strengthen back up big time crossing the water though, then likley Don like path.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice post Treasure. I too have been thinking for several days that she would eventually make it into the E GOM. At the time (several days ago) I thought she would move over Haiti and E Cuba and then through the Fl Straits into the E GOM. And she still might. But I fully understand your continued W course (missed trough) and then turning more NW with strenthening and the arrival of the next weakness. I wish there were more posts like this instead just recounting what models say.

[Bocadude85]

Looking at the latest visibles she seems to be on the move again, though slowly, and with a more WNW or N of west component now, maybe the long awaited turn might be starting now.................


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

I think what you are seeing is the convection north of the center expanding.

[mutley]

Looks like she may be on the move again.. still west it looks like..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I agree. Just slowly drifting west, along with everything else below the 20th parallel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[westwind]

you all think emily more stronger 50mph she look good on sat pic this morning

and recon found unflagged 50+ kt wind at flight level and at the serface during the last flight.
I expect the NHC to increase to 50 kt with next advisory IMO.

[mitchell]

I often wonder how reliable those type of data are from 80 years ago.

Ah, I'm thinking the Labour Day Cane data is well accurate especially when it comes to the pressume at landfall. Modern day re-analysis suggests the strongest sustained winds might've been around 185mph rather than 160mph as it was presumed previous to the reanalysis conducted by the NHC.

And I reckon the Labour Day Cane was of the same ilk as Wilma, or as seen just the other day in the WPac Muifa.

I wasnt really doubting the accuracy of the pressure/wind at landfall, as much as the accuracy of pressure/wind 24-36 hours before landfall when the storm was out of open ocean, and may not have had many observations. This would lead me to question the validity of the often quoted 24 hour intensification of cat1 - cat5. To your point, if the landfalling winds were adjusted by 25 mph upon reanalysis, then surely the open ocean margin of error could be as much or more.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Unless she speeds up, I don't foresee any watches for FL yet.
i.e. if 480 miles away, and watches would be put in play if expected conditions within 48 hours, storm would need to be going at least 10mph to warrant the watch.

[floridasun78]

you all think emily more stronger 50mph she look good on sat pic this morning

and recon found unflagged 50+ kt wind at flight level and at the serface during the last flight.
I expect the NHC to increase to 50 kt with next advisory IMO.

50knt mean in mph?

[KWT]

Yep I think watches for S.Florida may have a little to wait yet, though once the system finally gets moving watches won't be far behind.

[RL3AO]

you all think emily more stronger 50mph she look good on sat pic this morning

and recon found unflagged 50+ kt wind at flight level and at the serface during the last flight.
I expect the NHC to increase to 50 kt with next advisory IMO.

50knt mean in mph?

rounds to 60 mph.

[caneseddy]

Yep I think watches for S.Florida may have a little to wait yet, though once the system finally gets moving watches won't be far behind.

Agree....I don't expect watches until tomorrow morning unless she decides to finally speed up between now and 5pm...IMO