ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rainstorm]

looks like the key to maria is the future nate. nate HAS to hit mexico for maria to be a threat.

[northjaxpro]

Track looks VERY similar to Irene at this point.

It really does. The current projected NHC track is a near carbon copy of the one Irene had a couple of weeks ago.

Maria is really moving fast at the current time. She would have to begin slowing her forward motion in order to really organize into a formidable cyclone.

[rainstorm]

moving too fast to be a threat. high simply wont have time to build

[Caribwxgirl]

moving too fast to be a threat. high simply wont have time to build

"High simply won't have time to build" could you explain?

[Blown Away]

12z NAM ... showing some good ridging developing behind KATIA this run.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

NAM seems to always show good ridging, it did with Irene and Katia. For now most of the reliable models are keeping Maria away from Florida.

[Steve H.]

Yes, I agree. Otherwise it will be the Katia and Lee show all over again.

[northjaxpro]

looks like the key to maria is the future nate. nate HAS to hit mexico for maria to be a threat.

I am assuming you mean a threat to the CONUS right?

Also, I tend to agree with that notion. If the system in the BOC heads north in the next few days, it will amplify the trough across the East CONUS. Thus, Maria would probably turn at or just beyond 70 degrees longitude.

Not an official forecast of course. Just an opinion from me.

[rainstorm]

looks like the key to maria is the future nate. nate HAS to hit mexico for maria to be a threat.

I am assuming you mean a threat to the CONUS right?

Also, I tend to agree with that notion. If the system in the BOC heads north in the next few days, it will amplify the trough across the East CONUS. Thus, Maria would probably turn at or just beyond 70 degrees longitude.

Not an official forecast of course. Just an opinion from me.

yep, if nate heads north maria will follow katia. maria also needs to slow down

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the key to maria is the future nate. nate HAS to hit mexico for maria to be a threat.

I am assuming you mean a threat to the CONUS right?

Also, I tend to agree with that notion. If the system in the BOC heads north in the next few days, it will amplify the trough across the East CONUS. Thus, Maria would probably turn at or just beyond 70 degrees longitude.

Not an official forecast of course. Just an opinion from me.

yep its really all about that system. but recent model trend seem to think it will stall and get caught under the ridge... with some exceptions.

[rainstorm]

moving too fast to be a threat. high simply wont have time to build

"High simply won't have time to build" could you explain?

sure, right now maria is racing right into the trough katia will leave behind. thats one reason the NHC keeps it at a ts. we need time for high pressure to rebuild over the western atlantic in the wake of katia.

[Caribwxgirl]

moving too fast to be a threat. high simply wont have time to build

"High simply won't have time to build" could you explain?

sure, right now maria is racing right into the trough katia will leave behind. thats one reason the NHC keeps it at a ts. we need time for high pressure to rebuild over the western atlantic in the wake of katia.

Thanks muchly

[ozonepete]

moving too fast to be a threat. high simply wont have time to build

"High simply won't have time to build" could you explain?

sure, right now maria is racing right into the trough katia will leave behind. thats one reason the NHC keeps it at a ts. we need time for high pressure to rebuild over the western atlantic in the wake of katia.

Just to clear this up, Maria is not moving into any trough at all right now. It's moving along the southern edge of the STR or SubTropical Ridge known as the Bermuda-Azores High. And it won't be near the islands for another 3 days. The models certainly see a high built north of it by then, because they have it starting to move to the right, but no sharp turn. It's still too far away yet anyway to make a meaningful forecast of where it will go as it nears the islands. We can only speculate.

Also, it is moving relatively fast for a tropical cylone, but Irene strengthened at almost the same forward speed (20 mph), and many tropical cyclones have strengthened into strong hurricanes at that speed.

[Caribwxgirl]

[quote="Caribwxgirl"

"High simply won't have time to build" could you explain?

sure, right now maria is racing right into the trough katia will leave behind. thats one reason the NHC keeps it at a ts. we need time for high pressure to rebuild over the western atlantic in the wake of katia.[/quote]

Just to clear this up, Maria is not moving into any trough at all right now. It's moving along the southern edge of the STR or SubTropical Ridge known as the Bermuda-Azores High. And it won't be near the islands for another 3 days. The models certainly see a high built north of it by then, because they have it starting to move to the right, but no sharp turn. It's still too far away yet anyway to make a meaningful forecast of where it will go as it nears the islands. We can only speculate.

Also, it is moving relatively fast for a tropical cylone, but Irene strengthened at almost the same forward speed (20 mph), and many tropical cyclones have strengthened into strong hurricanes at that speed.[/quote]

Thanks for the further clarification.

[Aric Dunn]

Maria is barely even showing up at the 500 mb level on the GFS.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS at 66h, near the Antilles

[Aric Dunn]

I find it rather odd that Maria being weaker than soon to be nate and under more ridging than nate but nate gets pushed SW even though there is clearly SW flow around the cut off low and maria moves through the ridge..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 84h

[LarryWx]

looks like the key to maria is the future nate. nate HAS to hit mexico for maria to be a threat.

I am assuming you mean a threat to the CONUS right?

Also, I tend to agree with that notion. If the system in the BOC heads north in the next few days, it will amplify the trough across the East CONUS. Thus, Maria would probably turn at or just beyond 70 degrees longitude.

Not an official forecast of course. Just an opinion from me.

yep, if nate heads north maria will follow katia. maria also needs to slow down

RS,
The 12Z GFS has Nate moving quickly into MX but has Maria recurving even a little further east than the prior three runs showed.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 120h

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 144h