ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[hurr123]

Emily may be taking her expected turn soon. How many times, in the past, have we seen storms move past their projected points by several hundred miles. Only to stall, then relocate, and end up going to the point near the Hurricane Center originally projected. They have done an excellent job during the past years of improving accuracy of predicted paths.

[northjaxpro]

I think the bams were pretty much spot on with Don as well. Please correct me if I am wrong. But that is what I am remembering.

Yes, The BAMM model did perform the best of all the models regarding Tropical Storm Don. Initially, most of the other dynamical models had Don turning NW at various times during his lifespan. But the BAMM model consistently took Don west bound through the Caribbean and later on to Brownsville, TX for landfall.

[maxx9512]

Just watched Weather Channel and Dr. Knabb was on and showed the latest model runs. It shows the Bam models in Gulf and
the others off Fl. east coast. He said and it showed, that the movement would have to start right now on a NNW movemnt or else Fl. would be in play. I don't see movement like that and find it very unlikely right now. Not a pro but Emily has yet to follow the movement in that direction. I don't know why models keep chosing that direction and it has not happened yet.I understand the synoptics but they are not playing out yet. More waiting on something that does not seem to be happening. Time keeps ticking away putting Fl. more and more into play. I guess we'll see what happens next.

[Evil Jeremy]

The new cone is absolutely banking on Emily making here NW turn right now.

[CronkPSU]

so let's say you run a summer overnight camp near Orlando, would you tell parents to still come for the weekend camp or cancel it (have to basically decide now since some parents will have to change plans and drive up from south florida if their kids are not longer staying the weekend) ...hypothetically of course

[cycloneye]

For those in SE Florida:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

[ConvergenceZone]

The track offshore seems more likely than yesterday, but hopefully Florida can still get some nice rains out of it, but hopefully no flooding rains.


I"m just glad we are dealing with a weak tropical storm and not a strong hurricane.
With a weak one, it's not a big deal if all of the sudden the storm changed direction and headed for Florida.

except we don't know what effect the Gulf Stream might have on her.

The thing is by the time is hits the gulf stream, it will probably still be a minimal tropical storm(figuring current strenghth or slightly less due to any minor land interaction). So it's not going to have much time to strengthen by the time it gets to Florida anyway. And as we've seen SO FAR this year, conditions aren't ideal for rapid strengthening. Ya need much more than just a hot body of water....

[Blown Away]

Pretty clear nothing has really changed since 5am so no reason to make any drastic changes to the 11am. IMO, Emily not getting deeper thus not feeling the weakness, so she may continue on a W to WNW track for a while.

[janswizard]

With all the uncertainty of this storm, I have a 90 year old friend who is a Florida Cracker. She recalls the days when no one knew something was "out there" until it came barreling ashore. No time to prepare, to put up shutters, to gather advanced provisions, nothing. So even though it is still unclear where this is going, whether it will affect Florida's east coast, what the intensity will be....at least we are aware that something is "out there" and our preparations should have already been completed.

[KWT]

Needs to move about 325 to hit the NHC next point...latest estimated motion is about 287 between the two latest NHC center estimates...

So going to have to really get going to the NW soon...still these systems can turn surprisingly fast, esp when they are moving quite slowly.

[Portastorm]

so let's say you run a summer overnight camp near Orlando, would you tell parents to still come for the weekend camp or cancel it (have to basically decide now since some parents will have to change plans and drive up from south florida if their kids are not longer staying the weekend) ...hypothetically of course

Wow ... that is a tough call. Frankly, I don't see how parts of Florida won't at least get showery weather this weekend as a result of Emily. Is that enough to cancel the camp? Probably not.

Can you wait until lunchtime? Perhaps if Emily clearly starts moving west-northwest or even northwest by then ... you'd have a better idea. Good luck!

[KWT]

Yeah the BAM's suite is decent when the steering is quite clearly dominated by upper ridging ot upper troughing...when the pattern is abit messy like it is currently there can problems however...

[northjaxpro]

Sometimes in the tropics, a storm comes along and seemingly has a way to defy the synoptic logic. Well, I have pretty much resigned myself to at this point Emily simply has a mind of her own. Mother Nature really unleashed a tricky girl in tropics to give everyone, including the NHC experts fits trying to figure out her moves in terms of track and intensity.

I am dunno. Mother nature is really having the laugh on us with this one. Emily will make its move somewhere over the next 3 days. LOL.. No doubt, this storm will have to go down somewhere in the books as one of the most tricky and mindboggling storms to analyze at least within the past 15-20 years for sure.

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, the center of circulation won't even hit Haiti. Would that change the long-term intensity of the storm? (Although it would mean a Florida landfall)

[petit_bois]

I'm jumping on the BAM wagon ! (pun intended)

[KWT]

Probably not in the long run Crazy because it just means it spends more time over Cuba...the ideal route for now would be the system to get a little further west, go over the lower ground on W.Haiti then shoot NNW right through the gap...

[stormreader]

Hasn't the BAMS model been pretty much 100% correct up to this point? I like where that model is taking Emily and it surely seems like a pass up the western florida coast and then over the central Florida pennisula and out to sea is plausible.

To be truthful, I think I would have to say that all of the models have done poorly so far. If you look at it, all of the models have been hundreds of miles off. Check the model forecasts for 3 or 4 days ago. Where was Emily supposed to be??? and where is she now???

[Bocadude85]

Well its all going depend on how fast she turns... the NHC has Emily on the western tip of Andros Island at 8am saturday if she moves NW for a little longer then forecast I see no way she will not at the very least scrape the SE Fl coast.

[capepoint]

We are getting close to make or break time for the models and forcast track. She has to start moving very soon and take a fairly dramatic northerly turn in order to verify. You have to wonder what the models and NHC are seeing that make them want to cling to the track as hard as they have been, but by 5 or at the latest 11 we should be seeing something to show if they are right or wrong as far as SFLA goes. The recurve is still way up in the air I think.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.

Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.