ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

from NWS Miami latest discussion -

THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ACTUALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THIS GUIDANCE HAS THE
G4 DROPSONDE DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...EMILY HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THE STORM IS ALSO
SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR AND SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM POORLY
ORGANIZED. THE LONGER EMILY STAYS ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK...THE
GREATER THE CHANCES OF EMILY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

[SFLcane]

In terms of SFL even if the center passes within 50 miles of the coastline per say of most of the ts winds are to the north and east of the circulation so not much over the mainland. Breezy squally weather.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.

Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

Why is it taking so long to go into the models?

[SFLcane]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.

Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

So your suggesting the turn will be gradual and bring it fairly close to sfl?

[Blown Away]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.
Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

If your position is W of Andros and similar to the NHC's track after that, that's a pretty sharp right turn?

[wxman57]

In terms of SFL even if the center passes within 50 miles of the coastline per say of most of the ts winds are to the north and east of the circulation so not much over the mainland. Breezy squally weather.

Of course, that assumes a perfect 48-hr forecast. I did a 10-yr study of landfall forecasts for Gulf of Mexico storms last year. For each storm, I measured the error in the landfall point for all advisories (24, 48 and 72 hrs out). At 48 hours out, the typical error was about 70 miles, I believe (110 miles at 72hrs). Though that study was only for storms forecast to impact from Brownsville, TX to the FL Panhandle, it's probably fairly valid for Emily. So don't feel TOO confident in Miami that you'll escape TS winds that could knock out power for short periods of time. I'm really surprised the NHC didn't issue the watches for south Florida. How often is the forecast perfect, particularly on a slow-moving disorganized storm?

[JPmia]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.

Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

So your suggesting the turn will be gradual and bring it fairly close to sfl?

Should we also imply that the 00z models did not include this data?

[wxman57]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.
Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

If your position is W of Andros and similar to the NHC's track after that, that's a pretty sharp right turn?

It turns NE after passing the Bahamas, nothing sharp in the way of a turn prior to then.

[caneseddy]

In terms of SFL even if the center passes within 50 miles of the coastline per say of most of the ts winds are to the north and east of the circulation so not much over the mainland. Breezy squally weather.

Of course, that assumes a perfect 48-hr forecast. I did a 10-yr study of landfall forecasts for Gulf of Mexico storms last year. For each storm, I measured the error in the landfall point for all advisories (24, 48 and 72 hrs out). At 48 hours out, the typical error was about 70 miles, I believe (110 miles at 72hrs). Though that study was only for storms forecast to impact from Brownsville, TX to the FL Panhandle, it's probably fairly valid for Emily. So don't feel TOO confident in Miami that you'll escape TS winds that could knock out power for short periods of time. I'm really surprised the NHC didn't issue the watches for south Florida. How often is the forecast perfect, particularly on a slow-moving disorganized storm?

Maybe because it's moving so slow...do you think at 5 they will put up watches?

[wxman57]

Should we also imply that the 00z models did not include this data?

Right, I believe the data were not available for the 00Z runs.

[Blown Away]

Yeah, I don't buy the sharp right turn forecast to occur immediately by the models. I put Emily into the western tip of Haiti then eastern Cuba then north to just west of Andros island on Saturday morning. NHC track from there on is similar to mine.
Heard through the grapevine that the G-IV mission into Emily last night dropped 30 dropsondes sampling the ridge to its north and the trof digging along the east U.S. Coast. That data should go into the 12Z model runs.

If your position is W of Andros and similar to the NHC's track after that, that's a pretty sharp right turn?

It turns NE after passing the Bahamas, nothing sharp in the way of a turn prior to then.

Ok, thanks I understand. So last night dropsonde data has not been factored into the model plots we have seen up to this point? BAM's, TVCN, etc?

[clfenwi]

While checking NCEP messages to see if/when the G-IV data was ingested, I came across this note of interest (that I don't think anyone's posted; apologies if this is a repeat).

Code: Select all

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2113Z WED AUG 03 2011

A CHANGE TO THE HWRF MODEL SAS DEEP CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION
SCHEME WAS IMPLEMENTED AS OF THE 18Z WED AUG 3 2011 CYCLE TO
CORRECT AN OUT-OF-BOUND ARRAY PROBLEM AND TO PREVENT RELATED MODEL
FAILURES.

TESTING AND EVALUATION FROM THE 2010 AND 2011 SEASONS SHOWED THIS
CHANGE ALSO RESULTED IN:

1. A LARGE REDUCTION IN NORTHWARD BIAS OFTEN SEEN IN EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE TRACKS.

2. A 35 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT IN HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AND
A 20 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT IN INTENSITY FORECASTS.



WRT the dropsondes though, all I see is 14 Air Force dropsondes going into the 00Z models; no mention of the G-IV ones.

[JPmia]

well that could explain the unreliable modeling thus far today.. 12z it is.

[artist]

going back and checking their forecast points in the advisories they have definitely been off and just keep moving the points mostly west since the 2nd, yet the cone north continues to pretty much remain the same give or take a little east or west.

[ObsessedMiami]

Remember, putting up watches for a huge metro area sets in motion all sorts of mandated policies, which are not that cheap for municipalities. NHC perhaps is waiting until the latest possible moment to issue watches given the weak nature of the storm.

[hurricanefloyd5]

It looks to me it was moving southward or shifted to the south by a whole degree

[wxman57]

The G-IV flew out of Tampa yesterday evening. First 7 dropsondes were from northern Andros Island due east to 66W. Plane turned SSW to about 150 miles NE of eastern DR dropping 2 dropsondes. Then west to the Turks and Caicos dropping another couple. Then starting near the northern Haiti coast the plane did a big clockwise circle around the DR to as far south as 15N then back up west of Haiti to just east of Cuba, dropping sondes 12-26. North to southern Bahamas then west to the Keys, dropping sondes 27-30. Data would not have made the 00Z runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Emily is looking a little ill right now...I think she may have a hangover! Like I said last night...She likes the nightlife better than the day. Come tonight she'll probably be ready to party again!

SFT

[SFLcane]

In terms of SFL even if the center passes within 50 miles of the coastline per say of most of the ts winds are to the north and east of the circulation so not much over the mainland. Breezy squally weather.

Of course, that assumes a perfect 48-hr forecast. I did a 10-yr study of landfall forecasts for Gulf of Mexico storms last year. For each storm, I measured the error in the landfall point for all advisories (24, 48 and 72 hrs out). At 48 hours out, the typical error was about 70 miles, I believe (110 miles at 72hrs). Though that study was only for storms forecast to impact from Brownsville, TX to the FL Panhandle, it's probably fairly valid for Emily. So don't feel TOO confident in Miami that you'll escape TS winds that could knock out power for short periods of time. I'm really surprised the NHC didn't issue the watches for south Florida. How often is the forecast perfect, particularly on a slow-moving disorganized storm?

Let me ask you as far as intensity goes if emily emerges with her circulation intact do you think there is a shot of emily becoming minimal hurricane as the hwrf/gfdl suggest before making its closest approach to the florida coastline.

[Kory]

Well she is finally moving WNW. I think she is starting to make the turn.