ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

Little low level turning feature swhot out of the far west side of the convection in the last few hours, looks like its still got several little circulations trying to get going every now and then...for the most part though at least the LLc is a little better defined now.

systems air is coming right over the highest ground of Hispaniola, really does need to get clear of it soon if its not going to start doing sginficant damage...

Wonder whether we will see another little strip show from Emily later lol?!

I think we are getting ready to see her pop out naked again from the west side of the convection...At least we will be able to track her movements better!

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS pretty much loses Emily through 24 hours, but looks like a stronger ridge so far.

initiation is horrible..

[SouthDadeFish]

From Miami NWS earlier this morning:

WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. HOWEVER...DID BUMP UP POPS
ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH UP WITH THE CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE. AS
OF THIS MORNING...TROPICAL STORM EMILY REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ACTUALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THIS GUIDANCE HAS THE
G4 DROPSONDE DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...EMILY HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THE STORM IS ALSO
SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR AND SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM POORLY
ORGANIZED. THE LONGER EMILY STAYS ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK...THE
GREATER THE CHANCES OF EMILY IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TAKES EMILY NEAR OR OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS TRIGGERED TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WORDING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE (SATURDAY NIGHT) AND COASTAL BROWARD
COUNTY (SATURDAY NIGHT). THE ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM ONCE THE NEW TRACK AND PROBABILITIES
COME IN FROM THE NHC.

[KWT]

I think we are getting ready to see her pop out naked again from the west side of the convection...At least we will be able to track her movements better!

Yep, can't wait to see the recon reports and find out exactly where about it is...

Couldn't have picked a worse place to stall again, needs to get ejected away from Haiti soon!

[Meso]

Agreed, her convection is falling apart - primarily on the northern and western sides. To my eyes it appears as though she is moving quite a bit more north in the past few frames than prior, though this may be an illusion due to the decay of convection.

[Jevo]

Im 7 miles from the Ocean here in North Broward and let's just say that my confidence in the NHC is such that the patio furniture is staying out.. I look forward to a breezy weekend to air out the house after this stifling summer..

[Nimbus]

Emilys outflow is expanding evenly and symmetrically and she is almost stationary.
It would be nice to see her just suddenly get picked up and roll north and out to sea but I doubt that will happen.
Some weak ridging could develop between her and the descending weakness.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS pretty much loses Emily through 24 hours, but looks like a stronger ridge so far.

initiation is horrible..

It's sad really. We have a tropical storm out there and you can't even find it on the initialization. No wonder the globals are dropping it. That's why Avila made the reference in the discussion about unapparent unfavorable conditions. They will be favorable, the models just have a horrible handle on this, which is why I'm surprised we aren't under a TS watch. I guess they still have time. Just my opinion.

[capepoint]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

The last couple of times we have had a tropical storm warning here in Miami they ended up being sunny days with only broken overcast. The average Joe on the street thinks it's all a conspiracy between the Home Depot and the NHC and doesn't listen anymore. So the NHC is darned if they do and darned if they dont issue watches. I dont blame them for holding off on this mess.

Look-up hurricane Chaley 1985 (or 86). went to bed with only a weak TS offshore, not expected to landfall, woke-up to an intensifying cat1 coming ashore. They threw the warnings with less than 5 hours until landfall, ended up with thousnds of tourists and unwise residents sitting in traffic jams on the southern outer banks during the worst of the storm. Many finally ended-up turning around and going back to the hotels during the middle of the storm.
Luckily it didn't have time to build-up a large surge....

The NWS and NOAA took a big black eye from that one, and there have been a few other situations like that in the past.

They have to consider the effects of false alarms, but they don't withold a watch/warning anymore if there is a chance that it will affect the population.

Besides, read the wording for watches and warnings. They don't say that you will definately experience storm conditions, but only that it could threaten or that you can expect it.

[SouthDadeFish]

FWIW, 12Z GFS brings an extremely weak 500mb vort center right at S FL through 48 hours.

[Bocadude85]

Let me ask you as far as intensity goes if emily emerges with her circulation intact do you think there is a shot of emily becoming minimal hurricane as the hwrf/gfdl suggest before making its closest approach to the florida coastline.

Hard to say. Starting out so disorganized with minimal inflow is not the situation I'd look for to predict rapid intensification north of Cuba. I wouldn't rule out hurricane intensity. Heck, the NHC forecast is 60 kts now as it passes south Fl. Typical error is about 10-15 kts per day. I'd say tropical storm and probably a hurricane watch is in order for SE FL, as Emily is within the required 48 hours of possibly impacting the area. I realize that such watches would require counties to mobilize and prepare for such a possibility. Can't be certain they won't need to if the track shifts west just a hair.

Very interesting wxman57.. since the storm is approaching from the south wouldnt that put part of the stronger north side of the storm onshore?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

so let's say you run a summer overnight camp near Orlando, would you tell parents to still come for the weekend camp or cancel it (have to basically decide now since some parents will have to change plans and drive up from south florida if their kids are not longer staying the weekend) ...hypothetically of course

Wow ... that is a tough call. Frankly, I don't see how parts of Florida won't at least get showery weather this weekend as a result of Emily. Is that enough to cancel the camp? Probably not.

Can you wait until lunchtime? Perhaps if Emily clearly starts moving west-northwest or even northwest by then ... you'd have a better idea. Good luck!

Orlando is far enough inland and far enough north, that at the point of closest approach, is something like 60 miles from the extreme western edge of the cone of uncertainty. Most of the convection has thus far been on the east side (though that is very likely to change once it crosses Hispaniola.)

I don't think you'll have a safety issue (i.e. no real need to hunker down and board up) no serious winds likely, but it might be a little rainy.

[artist]

nothing from recon yet.

[cycloneye]

Plane has not departed as planned at 11:30 AM EDT,so there is a delay.

[CronkPSU]

GFS now has S fl as a hit but as a very weak storm..

[Kory]

GFS now has S fl as a hit but as a very weak storm..

Its like an open wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

Plane has not departed as planned at 11:30 AM EDT,so there is a delay.

Is it just me or does it seem like there has been one problem after another with recon for this storm???

[AdamFirst]

GFS intensity forecasts are conservative, to say the least. They've had strong storms that look weak on the model.

[Canelaw99]

There have been a lot of issues, all around, with this storm. Recon, dropsonde data, not following where the NHC predicts it will go, etc. Maybe it's a conspiracy

[Kory]

FWIW, 12Z GFS brings an extremely weak 500mb vort center right at S FL through 48 hours.

Yeah its an open wave. I don't see Emily weakening to an open wave, but any real strengthening is hard to believe at this current point.


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