ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Based on latest data, intensity looks to be 50 kt.

[caribepr]

Until we get a major or a serious land threat as a significant hurricane, I think a lot of people have been let down.

I think maybe the people of some of the Leeward Islands might not feel quite the same as whoever the people are that you mean...did you look at this link posted here on S2K by a person living on Dominica?

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/

[expat2carib]

Until we get a major or a serious land threat as a significant hurricane, I think a lot of people have been let down.

I love it when people sitting high and dry are let down. She is still dumping a lot on people that are not so privileged sitting high and dry. I appreciate looking at at major not affecting land and I don't understand the thrill seekers that only get a kick out of land threat. Actually I think that's a little sick.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282338
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 11 20110928
232830 1930N 06042W 9565 00395 0010 +202 +197 065045 046 040 008 00
232900 1929N 06042W 9533 00422 0006 +203 +197 062045 047 040 007 03
232930 1928N 06041W 9542 00408 0001 +205 +197 062045 046 042 005 00
233000 1926N 06040W 9539 00407 9995 +219 +197 060040 041 038 003 00
233030 1925N 06039W 9546 00397 9990 +220 +197 060040 043 036 003 03
233100 1924N 06038W 9534 00404 9986 +211 +197 058041 043 032 006 03
233130 1922N 06038W 9548 00386 9980 +207 +197 058043 043 035 009 03
233200 1921N 06037W 9543 00383 9975 +194 //// 051041 042 036 009 01
233230 1920N 06036W 9545 00377 9967 +210 +195 055038 044 038 006 03
233300 1918N 06035W 9535 00382 9960 +219 +194 055027 031 033 007 03
233330 1917N 06034W 9548 00364 9954 +227 +194 066020 021 022 005 03
233400 1916N 06033W 9539 00371 9952 +223 +195 073016 018 018 005 03
233430 1914N 06033W 9543 00365 9951 +225 +195 086008 011 011 003 03
233500 1913N 06032W 9545 00365 9951 +228 +196 279001 003 006 004 03
233530 1911N 06032W 9533 00377 9952 +225 +197 243005 005 006 003 03
233600 1910N 06031W 9545 00366 9954 +225 +199 243007 009 007 001 03
233630 1909N 06029W 9539 00373 9954 +225 +201 242010 011 006 002 03
233700 1908N 06028W 9541 00371 9955 +222 +202 249015 016 008 002 03
233730 1907N 06027W 9548 00368 9958 +220 +202 241020 021 009 003 00
233800 1906N 06026W 9541 00375 9960 +216 +202 237025 032 026 006 00
$$
;

Pressure 995mb.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to about 995mb.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 282344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 28/23:35:00Z
B. 19 deg 13 min N
060 deg 32 min W
C. NA
D. 48 kt
E. 328 deg 37 nm
F. 067 deg 52 kt
G. 330 deg 27 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 21 C / 489 m
J. 23 C / 504 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0716A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 23:26:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282348
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 12 20110928
233830 1905N 06025W 9552 00367 9964 +209 +201 232037 040 032 005 03
233900 1904N 06023W 9525 00396 9967 +215 +198 231043 044 036 003 03
233930 1902N 06022W 9490 00432 9975 +216 +194 234045 046 033 003 03
234000 1901N 06021W 9497 00431 9979 +226 +192 233046 047 034 001 03
234030 1900N 06020W 9486 00453 9990 +225 +193 233045 046 031 004 03
234100 1859N 06018W 9490 00454 9996 +223 +195 226044 046 033 002 03
234130 1858N 06017W 9496 00453 0002 +216 +197 225043 044 033 003 00
234200 1857N 06015W 9494 00460 0007 +216 +199 222042 043 037 002 00
234230 1855N 06014W 9494 00463 0011 +219 +200 218041 041 032 001 00
234300 1854N 06013W 9499 00462 0015 +220 +200 217040 040 029 003 03
234330 1853N 06012W 9494 00470 0019 +218 +201 219038 039 028 005 00
234400 1852N 06010W 9497 00471 0022 +218 +201 221038 039 030 004 00
234430 1851N 06009W 9507 00464 0025 +218 +199 220037 038 029 003 00
234500 1850N 06008W 9544 00427 0024 +221 +199 217037 037 028 003 00
234530 1848N 06007W 9526 00451 0030 +220 +198 216038 039 030 003 00
234600 1847N 06006W 9544 00431 0029 +213 +199 218039 040 033 001 03
234630 1846N 06004W 9524 00455 0033 +215 +198 216040 042 028 003 00
234700 1845N 06003W 9530 00450 0035 +218 +196 217039 040 029 002 00
234730 1844N 06002W 9520 00460 0036 +217 +194 219038 039 027 004 03
234800 1843N 06001W 9533 00451 0038 +220 +192 220038 039 030 003 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282358
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 13 20110928
234830 1842N 06000W 9525 00462 0042 +214 +192 217039 040 033 010 03
234900 1841N 05959W 9505 00482 0046 +207 +191 212039 040 035 012 03
234930 1840N 05958W 9533 00457 0045 +219 +189 207039 039 031 002 00
235000 1838N 05956W 9530 00463 0048 +218 +188 208038 038 031 001 03
235030 1837N 05955W 9527 00467 0050 +220 +188 207037 038 028 004 03
235100 1836N 05954W 9530 00467 0052 +220 +189 208035 036 027 003 00
235130 1835N 05953W 9532 00466 0054 +220 +190 209034 036 027 002 00
235200 1834N 05952W 9530 00469 0056 +222 +192 212033 035 026 003 00
235230 1833N 05950W 9526 00474 0057 +224 +194 215032 033 024 002 00
235300 1831N 05949W 9529 00473 0058 +225 +195 215031 032 024 003 00
235330 1830N 05948W 9527 00476 0059 +225 +196 214032 033 025 002 00
235400 1829N 05947W 9530 00474 0060 +223 +198 210032 033 026 002 00
235430 1828N 05945W 9530 00474 0061 +224 +199 209032 032 026 001 00
235500 1827N 05944W 9531 00476 0062 +227 +199 207032 033 026 002 03
235530 1826N 05943W 9531 00477 0064 +225 +200 206031 032 024 003 00
235600 1824N 05942W 9526 00483 0066 +224 +200 206030 031 025 001 00
235630 1823N 05941W 9527 00483 0067 +223 +201 202029 030 024 001 03
235700 1823N 05939W 9531 00479 0067 +221 +201 199032 034 /// /// 03
235730 1824N 05937W 9544 00470 0069 +220 +201 187031 034 /// /// 03
235800 1826N 05937W 9523 00484 0065 +219 +201 188033 035 035 002 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Until we get a major or a serious land threat as a significant hurricane, I think a lot of people have been let down.

I think maybe the people of some of the Leeward Islands might not feel quite the same as whoever the people are that you mean...did you look at this link posted here on S2K by a person living on Dominica?

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all- ... -dominica/

It's all perception though, not reality. Most members live in the CONUS, but anyway I hope you are safe!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290008
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 14 20110928
235830 1827N 05938W 9524 00483 0065 +220 +201 186031 031 030 003 03
235900 1829N 05938W 9531 00477 0064 +221 +200 188032 033 030 003 03
235930 1831N 05939W 9527 00479 0064 +221 +199 188032 034 028 003 03
000000 1832N 05939W 9535 00472 0061 +224 +198 189031 032 029 001 00
000030 1834N 05940W 9526 00478 0060 +226 +196 189032 033 026 002 03
000100 1836N 05940W 9526 00479 0061 +223 +196 188033 033 027 002 00
000130 1838N 05940W 9528 00475 0060 +221 +197 185033 034 028 004 03
000200 1840N 05940W 9528 00474 0058 +221 +197 182036 038 030 002 00
000230 1842N 05940W 9529 00472 0058 +219 +197 176038 038 030 004 03
000300 1843N 05940W 9528 00471 0056 +220 +196 173040 041 034 003 03
000330 1845N 05940W 9528 00470 0055 +221 +195 174039 041 032 004 00
000400 1847N 05939W 9527 00471 0054 +220 +194 170041 042 037 003 00
000430 1849N 05939W 9531 00466 0053 +220 +194 168043 046 039 002 03
000500 1851N 05939W 9521 00476 0054 +214 +194 162048 050 040 003 00
000530 1853N 05939W 9367 00622 0059 +207 +192 169045 048 040 003 00
000600 1855N 05939W 9259 00730 0071 +186 //// 172045 048 042 003 01
000630 1857N 05938W 9252 00737 0068 +203 +184 174044 045 042 001 03
000700 1859N 05938W 9250 00738 0067 +202 +179 169048 050 041 002 00
000730 1901N 05938W 9250 00738 0068 +197 +176 168050 051 040 003 00
000800 1903N 05938W 9251 00735 0069 +191 +175 162054 055 040 002 00
$$
;

55 kt FL this pass. Now flying at 925mb so a steeper reduction factor of 75%.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290018
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 15 20110929
000830 1905N 05938W 9256 00730 0069 +188 +173 160053 054 040 003 00
000900 1907N 05938W 9247 00739 0067 +195 +169 161052 053 041 003 00
000930 1909N 05938W 9247 00737 0067 +193 +167 158056 056 043 003 00
001000 1911N 05938W 9257 00728 0071 +175 +167 155059 060 043 005 00
001030 1913N 05938W 9254 00732 0068 +190 +170 152058 059 043 003 03
001100 1915N 05938W 9249 00736 0067 +193 +173 150058 059 043 003 03
001130 1917N 05938W 9244 00742 0067 +194 +176 147059 060 046 002 00
001200 1919N 05938W 9248 00738 0068 +192 +178 144061 062 043 002 03
001230 1921N 05938W 9248 00737 0069 +190 +179 143062 064 043 003 00
001300 1923N 05939W 9252 00734 0069 +187 +180 142062 064 043 002 03
001330 1925N 05939W 9243 00741 0070 +185 +181 141063 065 043 002 03
001400 1927N 05939W 9146 00836 0072 +182 +180 144060 062 044 003 00
001430 1929N 05939W 9016 00961 0075 +173 //// 144057 057 046 003 05
001500 1931N 05939W 8881 01096 0072 +173 //// 143054 055 047 004 01
001530 1932N 05940W 8698 01268 0073 +150 //// 143053 056 045 008 01
001600 1934N 05940W 8556 01410 0072 +156 //// 145049 051 044 003 01
001630 1936N 05940W 8453 01519 0072 +156 //// 144043 046 044 003 01
001700 1938N 05940W 8429 01541 0071 +159 +155 144039 041 043 002 00
001730 1940N 05940W 8430 01542 0072 +160 +155 142040 041 042 003 00
001800 1942N 05940W 8430 01543 0073 +158 +156 140044 046 043 001 00
$$
;

65 kt FL before a shift to 850mb level (reduction factor 80%). That 65 supports 49 kt at the surface.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290028
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 16 20110929
001830 1944N 05940W 8429 01546 0075 +160 +156 144044 044 044 002 00
001900 1946N 05940W 8426 01546 0077 +157 +157 139049 054 046 002 00
001930 1948N 05940W 8430 01546 0082 +150 //// 132056 057 038 006 01
002000 1950N 05940W 8436 01540 0086 +146 //// 139055 056 040 005 01
002030 1952N 05940W 8429 01548 0089 +137 //// 140052 054 038 007 01
002100 1954N 05940W 8429 01550 0097 +133 //// 136055 057 040 009 01
002130 1956N 05940W 8432 01547 //// +127 //// 133055 056 044 013 01
002200 1958N 05940W 8426 01554 //// +125 //// 134055 055 043 015 01
002230 2000N 05940W 8422 01560 //// +124 //// 129057 059 042 011 01
002300 2002N 05940W 8431 01551 //// +125 //// 127057 058 043 014 01
002330 2004N 05940W 8433 01551 //// +122 //// 127056 057 042 015 05
002400 2005N 05940W 8430 01563 //// +116 //// 124049 052 /// /// 05
002430 2005N 05939W 8430 01561 0114 +126 //// 124045 046 /// /// 05
002500 2004N 05939W 8426 01561 //// +121 //// 123046 048 041 016 05
002530 2003N 05940W 8433 01550 //// +117 //// 119050 051 044 015 01
002600 2001N 05941W 8429 01554 //// +120 //// 122051 052 042 012 01
002630 2000N 05942W 8433 01546 //// +127 //// 129051 053 042 010 01
002700 1959N 05943W 8431 01550 0098 +132 //// 130049 050 044 009 01
002730 1958N 05945W 8429 01551 0096 +136 //// 132050 052 042 007 01
002800 1957N 05946W 8435 01544 0087 +148 //// 136048 048 041 006 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290038
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 17 20110929
002830 1956N 05947W 8425 01552 0084 +150 //// 135046 048 039 003 01
002900 1955N 05948W 8434 01542 0079 +154 //// 133047 048 040 004 01
002930 1953N 05949W 8427 01546 0077 +154 //// 128046 049 040 003 01
003000 1952N 05951W 8431 01543 0077 +154 //// 129044 046 044 004 01
003030 1951N 05952W 8428 01545 0077 +149 //// 129043 044 045 005 01
003100 1950N 05953W 8425 01546 0071 +157 //// 125039 039 043 002 01
003130 1949N 05954W 8434 01536 0069 +159 +159 127037 038 044 003 00
003200 1948N 05956W 8427 01542 0073 +148 //// 125041 042 045 006 01
003230 1946N 05957W 8428 01539 0071 +146 //// 129047 050 044 007 01
003300 1945N 05958W 8439 01525 //// +134 //// 139043 046 046 011 01
003330 1944N 05959W 8426 01536 //// +136 //// 132049 054 047 010 01
003400 1943N 06001W 8434 01524 //// +141 //// 135049 050 047 008 01
003430 1942N 06002W 8428 01530 0059 +150 //// 132054 057 045 005 01
003500 1941N 06003W 8430 01523 0055 +152 //// 134046 048 045 005 01
003530 1940N 06004W 8433 01520 //// +139 //// 133047 049 047 010 01
003600 1938N 06005W 8432 01516 //// +139 //// 134055 058 045 008 01
003630 1937N 06007W 8431 01519 //// +138 //// 139046 047 046 013 01
003700 1936N 06008W 8426 01521 //// +139 //// 135048 051 045 010 01
003730 1935N 06009W 8429 01514 //// +136 //// 136048 049 042 008 01
003800 1934N 06010W 8426 01515 //// +134 //// 134047 051 041 009 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Up to 50kts at 00z Best Track.

AL, 16, 2011092900, , BEST, 0, 192N, 605W, 50, 995, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290048
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 18 20110929
003830 1933N 06011W 8427 01511 0033 +157 //// 143044 045 040 004 01
003900 1932N 06012W 8437 01498 0031 +159 +158 144045 046 040 004 00
003930 1931N 06014W 8426 01507 0028 +158 //// 144046 046 037 004 01
004000 1930N 06015W 8432 01497 0024 +158 +157 146049 050 040 006 00
004030 1929N 06016W 8428 01500 0022 +157 +150 143049 050 040 006 00
004100 1927N 06017W 8432 01489 0025 +138 //// 142049 050 046 015 01
004130 1926N 06018W 8435 01481 //// +130 //// 142048 049 049 025 05
004200 1925N 06019W 8426 01484 //// +134 //// 148050 053 051 022 01
004230 1924N 06020W 8430 01476 //// +143 //// 164047 052 049 015 05
004300 1923N 06022W 8420 01486 //// +141 //// 162046 048 047 014 01
004330 1922N 06023W 8425 01471 //// +143 //// 162045 047 046 013 05
004400 1922N 06024W 8427 01466 //// +143 //// 159035 039 044 008 01
004430 1921N 06026W 8440 01448 9975 +153 //// 166023 027 039 007 05
004500 1920N 06027W 8426 01465 9966 +176 +176 169014 015 017 001 03
004530 1920N 06029W 8429 01461 9964 +178 +172 161013 013 009 000 00
004600 1920N 06031W 8432 01458 9964 +178 +172 157011 011 013 000 03
004630 1919N 06032W 8428 01458 9963 +179 +166 155008 008 010 001 00
004700 1918N 06034W 8441 01446 9962 +181 +165 142005 007 004 002 00
004730 1917N 06036W 8425 01459 9958 +185 +165 139002 003 002 001 03
004800 1917N 06037W 8425 01462 9956 +190 +165 335003 004 002 002 03
$$
;

51 kt SFMR. Pressure 996mb so far this pass.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290058
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 19 20110929
004830 1916N 06039W 8436 01453 9955 +194 +167 324006 010 005 002 03
004900 1914N 06039W 8429 01462 9957 +194 +172 293017 019 /// /// 03
004930 1913N 06037W 8434 01457 9956 +197 +176 270020 021 017 002 00
005000 1912N 06036W 8425 01468 9961 +191 +179 262023 024 017 004 03
005030 1912N 06036W 8425 01468 9967 +187 +180 255026 027 018 004 00
005100 1910N 06033W 8432 01467 9972 +186 +180 250026 026 024 006 00
005130 1908N 06032W 8432 01471 9980 +179 +178 245027 028 025 006 00
005200 1907N 06030W 8425 01483 9990 +171 //// 238029 030 030 009 01
005230 1906N 06029W 8428 01482 9997 +164 //// 233031 031 032 008 01
005300 1905N 06028W 8437 01477 0003 +164 +163 230034 034 034 009 00
005330 1904N 06026W 8425 01495 0004 +171 +150 229033 035 034 007 00
005400 1903N 06025W 8430 01490 0008 +173 +144 227032 032 033 006 00
005430 1902N 06024W 8434 01492 0013 +167 +153 226035 036 034 005 00
005500 1901N 06022W 8429 01499 0017 +163 //// 224037 038 037 009 01
005530 1900N 06021W 8423 01508 0031 +148 //// 225038 038 034 008 01
005600 1859N 06020W 8437 01497 0021 +171 +157 220036 037 037 002 00
005630 1858N 06018W 8427 01509 0028 +165 +161 215038 041 039 007 00
005700 1857N 06017W 8423 01516 0038 +147 //// 214040 040 035 008 01
005730 1856N 06016W 8433 01510 0032 +163 //// 214043 043 034 004 01
005800 1855N 06015W 8428 01518 0031 +173 +158 213045 046 034 004 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290108
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 20 20110929
005830 1854N 06013W 8425 01521 0036 +172 +148 216044 045 034 001 00
005900 1853N 06012W 8433 01520 0044 +166 +158 213042 042 033 002 00
005930 1851N 06011W 8429 01524 0047 +160 +154 213042 043 036 004 00
010000 1850N 06010W 8435 01520 0051 +155 //// 210042 042 038 008 05
010030 1849N 06008W 8425 01531 0050 +167 +158 210041 042 035 003 00
010100 1848N 06007W 8429 01530 0051 +167 +160 212041 041 035 002 00
010130 1847N 06006W 8436 01525 0051 +175 +151 212041 041 032 002 03
010200 1846N 06005W 8429 01536 0057 +172 +140 213041 042 031 001 03
010230 1846N 06003W 8426 01542 0064 +167 +142 209042 043 /// /// 03
010300 1847N 06002W 8429 01541 0061 +170 +148 207041 041 033 002 03
010330 1849N 06002W 8434 01529 0058 +170 +148 203042 043 034 001 00
010400 1851N 06002W 8429 01535 0054 +170 +143 199042 042 035 002 00
010430 1853N 06002W 8425 01536 0054 +170 +143 195044 044 034 001 00
010500 1855N 06001W 8434 01527 0052 +172 +143 195044 045 035 002 00
010530 1857N 06001W 8424 01537 0051 +171 +143 191045 045 036 001 00
010600 1859N 06001W 8425 01536 0053 +170 +142 189046 047 037 002 00
010630 1901N 06000W 8436 01523 0052 +168 +142 184046 047 036 001 00
010700 1903N 06000W 8427 01531 0052 +166 +148 180046 046 038 002 00
010730 1905N 06000W 8432 01527 0051 +166 +148 179044 044 036 004 00
010800 1907N 05959W 8427 01529 0054 +162 +146 178045 045 036 003 00
$$
;

[Gustywind]

28/2345 UTC 19.3N 60.3W T2.5/2.5 OPHELIA
28/1745 UTC 19.0N 60.4W T2.5/2.5 OPHELIA

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 290102
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 29/00:47:50Z
B. 19 deg 17 min N
060 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1386 m
D. 50 kt
E. 065 deg 17 nm
F. 133 deg 58 kt
G. 055 deg 35 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 14 C / 1526 m
J. 20 C / 1517 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0716A OPHELIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 00:36:10Z
;

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 290105
XXAA 79018 99193 70606 04390 99995 26214 13007 00544 ///// /////
92642 23229 12506 85380 19425 33504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80048
61616 AF300 0716A OPHELIA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1928N06063W 0049 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
003 994843 WL150 14005 083 REL 1927N06062W 004805 SPG 1928N06061W
004851 =
XXBB 79018 99193 70606 04390 00995 26214 11850 19425 22843 19024
21212 00995 13007 11879 07002 22843 32505
31313 09608 80048
61616 AF300 0716A OPHELIA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1928N06063W 0049 MBL WND 14004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
003 994843 WL150 14005 083 REL 1927N06062W 004805 SPG 1928N06061W
004851 =
;

995mb/7 kt.