ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[StarmanHDB]

Really beginning to decompensate

[KWT]

18Z models initialized as "Disturbance Emily" with 30 kts. Downgrade coming.

Is it possible the LLC has shot off to the NW?

I swear I see a small circulation heading into W.Haiti right now with some small convection on its eastern flank...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

maybe as a disturbance the models will handle it better?
I bet the hurricane center is hoping she just completely dies out and doesn't regenerate. she's been a difficult one for them, and I'm sure they are all sick of her by now!

[tolakram]

Where?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

The area near Cuba looks most promising at the moment.

[Tireman4]

maybe as a disturbance the models will handle it better?
I bet the hurricane center is hoping she just completely dies out and doesn't regenerate. she's been a difficult one for them, and I'm sure they are all sick of her by now!

Maybe causing them to drink adult beverages heavily.....

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041830
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 16 20110804
182030 1731N 07410W 9590 00443 0089 +233 +105 093014 014 017 000 03
182100 1732N 07412W 9597 00436 0089 +235 +105 092014 015 017 000 03
182130 1733N 07413W 9592 00442 0088 +236 +105 090015 015 019 000 03
182200 1734N 07414W 9597 00437 0088 +235 +106 092015 016 019 000 00
182230 1735N 07416W 9596 00438 0088 +235 +106 094015 015 020 000 03
182300 1736N 07417W 9594 00440 0088 +234 +106 095016 017 020 000 00
182330 1737N 07419W 9596 00438 0088 +235 +106 096017 017 020 000 03
182400 1738N 07420W 9590 00443 0089 +234 +106 096017 017 020 000 03
182430 1739N 07422W 9592 00441 0088 +234 +106 098017 017 020 000 03
182500 1740N 07423W 9598 00436 0088 +235 +106 099017 018 020 000 03
182530 1741N 07425W 9592 00442 0087 +235 +107 100018 018 021 000 03
182600 1742N 07426W 9595 00437 0087 +235 +107 099018 018 020 001 03
182630 1743N 07428W 9592 00441 0087 +235 +108 099019 019 019 000 03
182700 1744N 07429W 9596 00437 0087 +235 +108 099018 019 020 000 00
182730 1745N 07430W 9597 00436 0088 +233 +108 099019 020 021 000 03
182800 1746N 07432W 9589 00443 0088 +234 +108 098020 020 020 000 00
182830 1747N 07433W 9594 00439 0087 +235 +108 098020 020 021 001 00
182900 1748N 07435W 9599 00434 0087 +234 +107 099019 020 021 000 00
182930 1749N 07436W 9592 00440 0088 +235 +107 102021 021 022 000 03
183000 1750N 07438W 9594 00438 0087 +234 +107 102021 021 022 000 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

As wxman57 said,downgrade comming as is now a Tropical Wave.

AL, 05, 2011080418, , BEST, 0, 180N, 728W, 30, 1008, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041840
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 17 20110804
183030 1751N 07439W 9593 00439 0087 +235 +107 104021 021 022 001 00
183100 1752N 07441W 9593 00440 0086 +235 +107 105020 021 023 000 03
183130 1754N 07442W 9604 00444 0092 +235 +108 110021 022 020 000 03
183200 1755N 07442W 9593 00440 0088 +234 +108 112021 022 /// /// 03
183230 1755N 07440W 9593 00439 0087 +232 +109 111020 020 021 000 03
183300 1754N 07439W 9594 00438 0088 +230 +109 111020 020 024 000 00
183330 1754N 07437W 9600 00433 0088 +230 +109 113020 020 025 000 00
183400 1754N 07436W 9592 00440 0087 +231 +109 112020 020 024 000 03
183430 1754N 07434W 9593 00440 0087 +233 +108 110019 020 024 000 03
183500 1754N 07433W 9596 00437 0087 +234 +108 110019 019 025 000 00
183530 1754N 07431W 9593 00439 0087 +235 +108 109018 018 025 000 00
183600 1754N 07430W 9600 00434 0088 +232 +108 108019 019 023 000 03
183630 1754N 07428W 9590 00441 0088 +234 +108 110018 018 023 000 00
183700 1754N 07427W 9593 00440 0088 +234 +108 111018 018 025 000 03
183730 1754N 07425W 9599 00434 0087 +235 +108 109017 018 023 000 00
183800 1754N 07424W 9593 00439 0087 +235 +109 109017 017 024 000 00
183830 1754N 07422W 9592 00441 0087 +235 +109 112017 017 024 000 03
183900 1754N 07421W 9601 00433 0088 +233 +110 111017 018 023 000 03
183930 1754N 07419W 9596 00437 0088 +231 +110 107018 018 023 000 03
184000 1754N 07418W 9593 00440 0089 +231 +110 106017 018 022 000 00
$$

[ozonepete]

maybe as a disturbance the models will handle it better?
I bet the hurricane center is hoping she just completely dies out and doesn't regenerate. she's been a difficult one for them, and I'm sure they are all sick of her by now!

Maybe causing them to drink adult beverages heavily.....

Caused me to.

[artist]

so if she regenerates will she still be Emily?

[ozonepete]

so if she regenerates will she still be Emily?

Should be.

[micktooth]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

Wow, that sounds so moving and sad. Emily might not "remember" but we will have over 200 pages of posts to remember her by, and we will tell her amazing story of her persistence for years to come. Quite a remarkable and crazy storm!

[canes04]

She will be back! Just needs to find her sweet spot
Now lets see what the models do with her.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Patrick99]

What's left of LLC still looks to me like it's drifting just slightly north of due west. Who's to say this won't blow up again after nightfall in a few hours, as it gets further away from the D.R.?

[cycloneye]

Now that Emily has degenerated into a Tropical Wave,I would not look to the models as there is no LLC to latch.

[artist]

it ain't over 'til it's over is my mantra.
I want to see what happens once this 'wave' gets past the land masses.

[vbhoutex]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

Ok, since we know she is now a TW and there is the possibility the former LLC will go one way and the MLC another, will she still be picked up by the weakness? Let's presume one is picked up by the weakness and the weaker one keeps drifting West, what would be the chances of that becoming another system?
I have snatched myself bald and had many adult beverages to try and figure this one out!! I definitely do not think she has been much of a lady!!

[mutley]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

Wow, that sounds so moving and sad. Emily might not "remember" but we will have over 200 pages of posts to remember her by, and we will tell her amazing story of her persistence for years to come. Quite a remarkable and crazy storm!

The legend of Emily is born. Now we wait to see if another chapter is added.