ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

I'll help Jonathan out a little...

[JonathanBelles]

[psyclone]

A newbie here. Someone posted a projection image earlier this week that I was hoping to show to some of my neighbors and now I am having a hard time finding it. It am looking for something visual that shows the possible storm surge along the Delmarva. I am a weather nut and I know this is going to be a big storm. However I am having a hard time convincing folks in my neighborhood that they need to find higher ground. Please don't tell me to tune into the local media because they are worthless here. I am trying to find a image that will make hard headed people move. Many of them live in mobile homes. They all think that they made it through Isabel so they should be fine.

I have my room booked. all my papers secured. I am now on my third sweep of my home, still have room in my jeep.

I just don't want to see my neighbors suffer due to ignorance. A picture is worth a thousand words and that image is what I am looking for. The image that will make them move.

I'm not sure what image you're referring to but in many cases local county EOC websites have detailed local inundation maps. I know we do down here in Florida so perhaps that could be a potential resource for you. I wish you and your neighbors the best.

[Jevo]

Heh my real answer would be heavily moderated and get me in trouble with mf_dolphin.. the simple answer is it doesn't.. except to boost his big ole ego a little more..

Well...I won't argue that he has an ego...but I will argue that it doesn't mean anything. Several private weather companies employ their own "scale." Why? Because of the FACT the SS scale is not an accurate representation of a storm. Ike was a good case in point at a Cat 2. So...it's not just Joe that does this.

Irene probably doesn't have Cat 3 winds at the surface...but she has a Cat 3...borderline Cat 4 pressure...and will have Cat 3-4 surge...even if she comes in at a low 2 in New York.

The NHC has talked about altering the scale...but because they are a rather large bureaucracy with rather large egos all their own (and don't kid yourself...any met worth his/her weight in salt has an ego the size of the "Big House")...they won't do it. So since they won't do it...private companies have done what is best for their clients...which is what they should do.

But I also know what really doesn't work...and what has been proven to not work. The SS scale. In all honesty, the only reason we keep it around is nostalgia. There is surely a better way to skin a bear...but that is another debate for another time.

Agreed.. and I do give JB a ration of dung.. I let my personal feelings get in the mix (hehe another debate another time).. Im going to shoot him am email to see if he has definitions for his scale.. Give him the benefit of the doubt..

Back to our girl Irene. She is lined up about 185mi due east of Melbourne.. center is still visible on GRLevel3.. should remain close enough to track it all the way up on radar



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

Slosh CAT 2 into NYC / Long island...it is very sobering...



nice write up on surge potential in NYC


http://philiporton.com/2011/01/31/the-n ... ge-threat/

[Iune]

I'm landing in JFK on the 31st... is it likely to be closed if Irene passes by?

[Dave]

610
URNT15 KNHC 260450
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 22 20110826
044030 2923N 07617W 6974 03022 //// +066 //// 146093 096 058 012 01
044100 2922N 07619W 6964 03032 //// +070 //// 148096 097 058 009 01
044130 2921N 07620W 6964 03029 //// +085 //// 149097 097 058 006 01
044200 2920N 07621W 6968 03017 //// +080 //// 148095 097 059 009 01
044230 2919N 07622W 6971 03012 //// +073 //// 147096 096 060 013 01
044300 2918N 07623W 6967 03016 //// +071 //// 144097 098 060 013 01
044330 2917N 07624W 6965 03015 //// +078 //// 146097 100 062 011 01
044400 2916N 07626W 6958 03018 //// +079 //// 144095 098 060 012 01
044430 2915N 07627W 6966 03004 //// +081 //// 147092 094 062 013 01
044500 2914N 07628W 6967 03001 //// +067 //// 143087 092 062 019 01
044530 2913N 07629W 6964 03000 //// +070 //// 141090 094 064 018 01
044600 2912N 07631W 6972 02989 //// +074 //// 148096 098 063 014 01
044630 2911N 07632W 6962 02994 //// +086 //// 149095 097 064 014 01
044700 2910N 07633W 6970 02981 //// +092 //// 147094 095 065 011 01
044730 2909N 07634W 6969 02977 //// +083 //// 145095 096 066 010 01
044800 2908N 07635W 6968 02973 //// +078 //// 142089 090 066 011 01
044830 2907N 07637W 6966 02970 //// +089 //// 141093 093 068 010 01
044900 2906N 07638W 6972 02958 //// +081 //// 142097 100 068 012 01
044930 2905N 07639W 6968 02955 //// +076 //// 146098 100 070 011 01
045000 2904N 07640W 6962 02955 //// +088 //// 145094 095 070 008 01
$$

[ROCK]

I'm landing in JFK on the 31st... is it likely to be closed if Irene passes by?

IMO, I would stay out of there until the dust settles....

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 260447
XXAA 76057 99296 70760 08096 99999 27228 12048 00507 ///// /////
92681 22828 13081 85415 18429 14081 70061 09003 14070 88999 77999
31313 09608 80433
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 10
62626 SPL 2971N07608W 0438 MBL WND 11566 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13575
999697 WL150 11556 083 REL 2964N07600W 043343 SPG 2971N07608W 043
811 =
XXBB 76058 99296 70760 08096 00999 27228 11850 18429 22711 11213
33697 08400
21212 00999 12048 11991 11057 22968 11066 33956 12077 44936 12576
55920 13083 66883 13585 77850 14081 88697 14070
31313 09608 80433
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 10
62626 SPL 2971N07608W 0438 MBL WND 11566 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13575
999697 WL150 11556 083 REL 2964N07600W 043343 SPG 2971N07608W 043
811 =
;

[Texashawk]

As a resident of Houston who saw too many people die who didn't have to because they thought it was 'only a 2' (and thus placing it next to Alicia, the nearest-comparison hurricane in scale) - but as we know, Alicia was no Ike. It's a shame that there's so much politics in weather forecasting. From a pragmatic standpoint, that's lunacy when the science affects so many lives potentially. Almost like a God complex, I wager. Disheartening. However... if there's something good to come out of all of this mess, maybe Houston wasn't important enough to change the rules and change the scales, but NYC sure will be.

I'll keep mentioning this every so often until it becomes common knowledge: There is an experimental wind-and-surge scale developed by Mark Powell of NOAA/AOML/HRD that was recently granted a patent. Powell's team is posting graphics and data on Irene. It is designed to specifically avoid a Hurricane Ike-type disaster where people see a Cat 2 storm that really has Cat 4 surge potential because of a broad wind field and other factors.

It's just a coincidence that the value Powell et al developed is called IKE -- for integrated kinetic energy -- which goes into their ranking of wind and wave/surge damage potential numbers.

The damage potential is a scale of zero to 6, somewhat like SS scale. Right now (an hour ago) they have Irene ranked as 2.9 for wind damage potential, but 4.8 for waves/surge damage. The IKE value for the storm is derived from energy of TS force winds and hurricane force winds, given in TJoules. Irene's IKE is 96 and 27 TJ, respectively, at this time.

Here is a link to the page with their analysis: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

Here is a link to a recent article about the patent for the IKE scale: http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

[CrazyC83]

As a resident of Houston who saw too many people die who didn't have to because they thought it was 'only a 2' (and thus placing it next to Alicia, the nearest-comparison hurricane in scale) - but as we know, Alicia was no Ike. It's a shame that there's so much politics in weather forecasting. From a pragmatic standpoint, that's lunacy when the science affects so many lives potentially. Almost like a God complex, I wager. Disheartening. However... if there's something good to come out of all of this mess, maybe Houston wasn't important enough to change the rules and change the scales, but NYC sure will be.

I'll keep mentioning this every so often until it becomes common knowledge: There is an experimental wind-and-surge scale developed by Mark Powell of NOAA/AOML/HRD that was recently granted a patent. Powell's team is posting graphics and data on Irene. It is designed to specifically avoid a Hurricane Ike-type disaster where people see a Cat 2 storm that really has Cat 4 surge potential because of a broad wind field and other factors.

It's just a coincidence that the value Powell et al developed is called IKE -- for integrated kinetic energy -- which goes into their ranking of wind and wave/surge damage potential numbers.

The damage potential is a scale of zero to 6, somewhat like SS scale. Right now (an hour ago) they have Irene ranked as 2.9 for wind damage potential, but 4.8 for waves/surge damage. The IKE value for the storm is derived from energy of TS force winds and hurricane force winds, given in TJoules. Irene's IKE is 96 and 27 TJ, respectively, at this time.

Here is a link to the page with their analysis: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

Here is a link to a recent article about the patent for the IKE scale: http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

Using similar comparisons for Northeast storms, Alicia was like Bob. This is more like Ike.

[Dave]

[summersquall]

A newbie here. Someone posted a projection image earlier this week that I was hoping to show to some of my neighbors and now I am having a hard time finding it. It am looking for something visual that shows the possible storm surge along the Delmarva. I am a weather nut and I know this is going to be a big storm. However I am having a hard time convincing folks in my neighborhood that they need to find higher ground. Please don't tell me to tune into the local media because they are worthless here. I am trying to find a image that will make hard headed people move. Many of them live in mobile homes. They all think that they made it through Isabel so they should be fine.

I have my room booked. all my papers secured. I am now on my third sweep of my home, still have room in my jeep.

I just don't want to see my neighbors suffer due to ignorance. A picture is worth a thousand words and that image is what I am looking for. The image that will make them move.

i don't know if this was the one posted but I found this: (scroll down the page for Delmarva)
http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ew-england

[ROCK]

this one is a little less colorful but you get the point...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[sbcc]

A newbie here. Someone posted a projection image earlier this week that I was hoping to show to some of my neighbors and now I am having a hard time finding it. It am looking for something visual that shows the possible storm surge along the Delmarva. I am a weather nut and I know this is going to be a big storm. However I am having a hard time convincing folks in my neighborhood that they need to find higher ground. Please don't tell me to tune into the local media because they are worthless here. I am trying to find a image that will make hard headed people move. Many of them live in mobile homes. They all think that they made it through Isabel so they should be fine.

I have my room booked. all my papers secured. I am now on my third sweep of my home, still have room in my jeep.

I just don't want to see my neighbors suffer due to ignorance. A picture is worth a thousand words and that image is what I am looking for. The image that will make them move.

i don't know if this was the one posted but I found this: (scroll down the page for Delmarva)
http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ew-england

summersquall, nice find! Much better graphics there. Be safe phishy_mama and good luck with your neighbors.

[JonathanBelles]

Dave told me I was graphically challenged! :O

976
URNT15 KNHC 260501
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 23 20110826
045030 2903N 07641W 6970 02940 //// +092 //// 144095 098 071 010 01
045100 2902N 07643W 6964 02940 //// +090 //// 142095 097 072 011 01
045130 2900N 07644W 6969 02928 //// +090 //// 141095 096 071 011 01
045200 2859N 07645W 6959 02933 //// +085 //// 137098 100 070 013 01
045230 2858N 07646W 6965 02919 //// +078 //// 136097 098 071 016 01
045300 2857N 07648W 6971 02904 //// +087 //// 141104 106 072 013 01
045330 2856N 07649W 6966 02900 //// +095 //// 145097 101 075 011 01
045400 2855N 07650W 6962 02899 //// +097 //// 142096 097 078 009 01
045430 2854N 07651W 6975 02871 //// +100 //// 139092 093 077 010 01
045500 2853N 07653W 6969 02872 //// +116 //// 139090 090 077 006 01
045530 2852N 07654W 6969 02863 9701 +107 //// 140093 094 078 008 01
045600 2851N 07655W 6969 02852 //// +092 //// 138096 099 079 008 01
045630 2850N 07656W 6968 02843 //// +111 //// 137092 093 078 008 01
045700 2848N 07658W 6965 02836 9654 +115 //// 135090 091 082 007 01
045730 2847N 07659W 6973 02815 9645 +121 //// 134089 090 083 007 01
045800 2846N 07700W 6966 02815 9637 +117 //// 133091 094 081 008 01
045830 2845N 07702W 6966 02800 //// +101 //// 132097 099 078 013 01
045900 2844N 07703W 6963 02783 //// +108 //// 131095 096 082 012 01
045930 2843N 07704W 6962 02766 //// +096 //// 131095 099 078 017 01
050000 2841N 07706W 6977 02725 //// +091 //// 125092 094 083 032 01
$$
;

[abryant.ma]

Output from NOAA's SLOSH model for Rhode Island/Block Island/Narragansett Bay/Buzzards Bay areas with Category 2 hurricane at high tide Sunday:



Also very sobering, though not as bad as NYC...

[Dave]

[JonathanBelles]

592
URNT15 KNHC 260510
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 24 20110826
050030 2840N 07707W 6967 02718 //// +097 //// 123092 094 083 043 01
050100 2839N 07709W 6960 02698 //// +103 //// 121082 087 085 025 01
050130 2837N 07710W 6978 02648 //// +116 //// 120066 073 087 016 01
050200 2836N 07711W 6960 02652 9416 +154 //// 117046 051 067 003 05
050230 2835N 07712W 6970 02626 9395 +162 +161 113037 040 051 005 00
050300 2833N 07713W 6964 02628 9379 +170 +167 115027 031 036 003 00
050330 2831N 07714W 6972 02612 9368 +175 +173 124019 023 024 003 03
050400 2830N 07715W 6967 02618 9365 +176 //// 159008 011 022 002 05
050430 2829N 07716W 6968 02614 9370 +170 //// 202009 010 022 002 05
050500 2828N 07718W 6963 02623 //// +168 //// 231009 009 023 003 01
050530 2827N 07720W 6964 02624 9364 +179 //// 262012 016 026 003 01
050600 2826N 07721W 6969 02620 9371 +175 //// 297025 030 033 003 01
050630 2824N 07723W 6977 02621 9377 +176 //// 308038 043 047 004 01
050700 2823N 07724W 6967 02654 9393 +184 //// 310052 062 055 004 01
050730 2822N 07726W 6970 02674 9406 +196 //// 309062 063 058 003 01
050800 2821N 07727W 6961 02710 9438 +186 //// 313065 066 059 002 01
050830 2820N 07728W 6970 02721 //// +178 //// 313066 068 059 003 01
050900 2818N 07730W 6967 02748 9485 +187 //// 311065 067 059 001 01
050930 2818N 07730W 6967 02748 9505 +187 //// 307066 068 060 002 01
051000 2816N 07732W 6966 02787 //// +179 //// 304068 069 057 003 01
$$

[Hurricane Jed]

Using similar comparisons for Northeast storms, Alicia was like Bob. This is more like Ike.

I agree. Large storm with pressure dropping but the winds aren't really increasing, just like Ike.