ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[JonathanBelles]

836
UZNT13 KWBC 260711
XXAA 76072 99317 70753 11615 99008 28026 08528 00069 27424 09038
92757 22818 11545 85492 19048 12041 70133 10056 12555 50585 04516
15051 40758 13530 15550 30971 26350 17042 25100 36757 17047 20250
501// 18532 88999 77999
31313 09608 80647
61616 NOAA9 2509A IRENE OB 07
62626 SPL 3187N07544W 0702 MBL WND 09039 AEV 20801 DLM WND 14042
007180 WL150 09037 082 REL 3173N07531W 064706 SPG 3187N07544W 070
233 =
XXBB 76078 99317 70753 11615 00008 28026 11967 24811 22850 19048
33777 13429 44709 10657 55611 00611 66540 01712 77422 11127 88305
25550 99257 35157 11219 44758 22180 557//
21212 00008 08528 11996 09041 22977 09037 33950 10545 44929 11045
55850 12041 66581 13058 77544 14044 88506 15552 99403 15551 11378
15538 22311 17544 33235 17049 44218 17039 55192 19533 66180 19528
31313 09608 80647
61616 NOAA9 2509A IRENE OB 07
62626 SPL 3187N07544W 0702 MBL WND 09039 AEV 20801 DLM WND 14042
007180 WL150 09037 082 REL 3173N07531W 064706 SPG 3187N07544W 070
233 =

[bexar]

Irene is now obviously weakening, the eye is fading which is contrary to what air force met was saying hours ago.

Dry air is surely taking it's toll on Irene.

probably down to 90 KTs now, and probably can no longer regain major status which would be good news I guess.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cranica]

Yeah, she's looking pretty ugly at the moment, kinda looks like she's getting sheared on her north side from the SW. Pressure's steady and FL winds are rising, though. Weird.

[ConvergenceZone]

Irene is now obviously weakening, the eye is fading which is contrary to what air force met was saying hours ago.

Dry air is surely taking it's toll on Irene.

probably down to 90 KTs now, and probably can no longer regain major status which would be good news I guess.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Earlier I strongly disagreed with your post, but now I do agree. Irene is really starting to look horrible now,, especially the last 2 frames. I don't know what the heck's happening. The outflow has lost it's symmetrical look, the eye dissapeared, the amount of deep reds lessened. I'm thinking it's about 100 mph right now. Perhaps it's encountering much more dry air that anticipated.....Wow, I didn't expect this at all....

You can really see it on this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[JonathanBelles]

197
URNT15 KNHC 260720
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 37 20110826
071030 2952N 07613W 6965 03025 //// +072 //// 154096 097 056 015 01
071100 2953N 07611W 6977 03015 //// +073 //// 153096 097 056 013 01
071130 2954N 07610W 6967 03028 //// +079 //// 152092 096 056 012 01
071200 2955N 07608W 6969 03031 //// +071 //// 153085 087 054 011 01
071230 2956N 07607W 6971 03033 //// +072 //// 151084 086 053 010 01
071300 2958N 07605W 6966 03042 //// +087 //// 149088 089 052 007 01
071330 2959N 07604W 6967 03044 //// +090 //// 149086 088 051 004 01
071400 3000N 07602W 6969 03047 9927 +093 //// 150085 086 051 004 01
071430 3001N 07601W 6965 03054 9930 +094 //// 149084 085 048 004 01
071500 3002N 07559W 6970 03049 9941 +088 //// 150085 085 048 007 01
071530 3004N 07558W 6966 03060 //// +079 //// 150082 083 049 007 01
071600 3005N 07556W 6969 03058 //// +079 //// 148084 084 049 006 01
071630 3006N 07555W 6969 03061 9958 +083 //// 148084 084 047 007 05
071700 3008N 07555W 6963 03072 9961 +084 //// 145082 084 /// /// 05
071730 3009N 07557W 6973 03059 9961 +083 //// 144080 081 050 007 05
071800 3009N 07559W 6964 03065 9957 +084 //// 142082 082 050 008 01
071830 3010N 07602W 6969 03058 //// +079 //// 142080 082 052 007 01
071900 3010N 07604W 6963 03062 9949 +085 //// 142077 078 050 009 01
071930 3010N 07607W 6967 03056 //// +085 //// 141079 080 051 009 01
072000 3011N 07609W 6966 03054 //// +085 //// 140080 081 051 009 01
$$

[bamajammer4eva]

Man, the eye is completely gone now....
AirforceMet said that it looked better, but I think it looks worse,plus, the reds are no longer surrounding what's left of the eye...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Maybe its an ERC. Hasn't ever looked particularly good to me compared to some others (Katrina, Isabel, Hugo) jmo.

[JonathanBelles]

Outbound recon

[bexar]

Irene is now obviously weakening, the eye is fading which is contrary to what air force met was saying hours ago.

Dry air is surely taking it's toll on Irene.

probably down to 90 KTs now, and probably can no longer regain major status which would be good news I guess.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Earlier I strongly disagreed with your post, but now I do agree. Irene is really starting to look horrible now,, especially the last 2 frames. I don't know what the heck's happening. The outflow has lost it's symmetrical looks, the eye dissapeared, the amount of deep reds lessened. I'm thinking it's about 100 mph right now. Perhaps it's encountering much more dry air that anticipated.....Wow, I didn't expect this at all....

You can really see it on this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

The environment was much more hostile than anticipated for strengthening I guess. Should it be just EWRC, Irene would now probably have a harder time regaining major status given conditions after the next 12 hours will become much more unfavorable as shear is expected to increase. I was really skeptical about others saying Irene showing much more tightening structure about 4 hours ago, but her overall appearance is not really as impressive, with some convection to the NW and NE fading a bit.

What's puzzling to me right now is that the lowest pressure reading is near high 930s but she still has 100 KT surface winds.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JonathanBelles]

955
URNT11 KNHC 260719
97779 07164 60301 75908 30500 15084 08088 /3023
RMK AF304 2409A IRENE OB 19
SWS = 47 KTS
NE EXIT

[Normandy]

There isn't anything puzzling about Irene's low pressure and lack of very intense winds. The circulation is massive and right now has a very loose gradient. Check out the recon obs and you will notice that there are 80-100 kt flight level winds FAR FAR out from the center. With no real small core of intense winds. Right now this is a cyclone with a 40-50 mile swath of CAT2 winds. This explains the low pressure. To get this thing up to a Cat4 it would likely need to drop below 920 or so, maybe even lower.

[bahamaswx]

Ugliest 942mb cane I've ever seen.

[bamajammer4eva]

According to the latest advisory, Irene still has over 18hrs of strengthening so don't count her out yet.

[bexar]

Ugliest 942mb cane I've ever seen.

agreed


even looks like convection is dying off the NW quadrant.

[ConvergenceZone]

According to the latest advisory, Irene still has over 18hrs of strengthening so don't count her out yet.

I wouldn't be suprised if we all wake up to a hurricane that's weakened quite a bit and catches everyone by suprise...I don't think it's an eye replacement cycle, because it just finished one of those earlier this afternoon...

I wish there was a met to chime in on what they think is going on...

[JonathanBelles]

URNT15 KNHC 260733
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 38 20110826
072030 3011N 07612W 6968 03049 9936 +089 //// 139081 082 051 007 01
072100 3011N 07614W 6969 03045 9936 +086 //// 137080 082 053 006 01
072130 3012N 07617W 6967 03044 //// +085 //// 136084 085 052 007 01
072200 3012N 07619W 6967 03042 //// +076 //// 136085 086 055 006 01
072230 3012N 07622W 6967 03041 //// +075 //// 138083 085 056 008 01
072300 3012N 07625W 6968 03034 //// +077 //// 141082 083 055 009 01
072330 3013N 07627W 6964 03038 //// +079 //// 143083 084 055 008 01
072400 3013N 07630W 6969 03028 //// +087 //// 144087 088 056 008 01
072430 3013N 07632W 6965 03030 //// +080 //// 139088 089 055 009 01
072500 3014N 07635W 6971 03024 //// +074 //// 138090 092 057 013 01
072530 3014N 07637W 6970 03020 //// +073 //// 137093 095 058 015 01
072600 3014N 07640W 6967 03024 //// +075 //// 136094 097 055 013 01
072630 3015N 07642W 6967 03025 //// +084 //// 137087 088 054 010 01
072700 3015N 07645W 6966 03025 //// +090 //// 134086 088 055 007 01
072730 3015N 07648W 6966 03022 //// +097 //// 135085 086 056 006 01
072800 3016N 07650W 6963 03022 //// +097 //// 133088 088 056 006 01
072830 3016N 07653W 6968 03015 //// +100 //// 132085 087 056 006 01
072900 3016N 07656W 6969 03013 //// +102 //// 131082 082 055 005 01
072930 3016N 07656W 6969 03013 //// +103 //// 128081 082 055 004 01
073000 3017N 07701W 6967 03015 9875 +106 //// 126080 081 056 006 01
$$

Last ob from me tonight. Good night!!

[Meso]

Did you guys see her yesterday morning? She looked even worse than she does now, or at least very similar. She had some dry air enter her yesterday too and she had not a single red on satellite imagery. She is definitely likely a 90kt storm at the moment, and weaker, but I wouldn't make any bets on her remaining weaker.

[bexar]

If it weakens more before the probable NC landfall... then so much for the "storm of the century" as portrayed by the media

[ConvergenceZone]

Did you guys see her yesterday morning? She looked even worse than she does now, or at least very similar. She had some dry air enter her yesterday too and she had not a single red on satellite imagery. She is definitely likely a 90kt storm at the moment, and weaker, but I wouldn't make any bets on her remaining weaker.

Well, so much for the idea that the winds will follow the lower pressure. That obviously doesn't seem to be true with Irene...

[ConvergenceZone]

If it weakens more before the probably NC landfall... then so much for the "storm of the century" as portrayed by the media

Well, maybe from a wind standpoint. But even if this weakens to a cat 1 or a tropical storm before it hits NC, there's still going to be a ton of rain more than likely,potentially causing lots of flooding...

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260750
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 40 20110826
074030 3023N 07757W 6967 03030 //// +066 //// 071063 064 049 008 01
074100 3024N 07759W 6968 03030 //// +078 //// 072064 064 049 005 01
074130 3024N 07802W 6966 03035 9908 +097 //// 073065 065 048 004 01
074200 3024N 07804W 6964 03038 9909 +095 //// 072066 068 049 005 01
074230 3024N 07807W 6970 03032 //// +085 //// 072069 072 050 007 01
074300 3025N 07810W 6976 03027 9918 +090 //// 073066 069 049 008 01
074330 3025N 07812W 6961 03047 9917 +094 //// 073063 064 047 005 01
074400 3025N 07815W 6971 03035 9914 +091 //// 076065 067 050 007 01
074430 3026N 07817W 6960 03050 9913 +100 //// 077064 067 048 007 01
074500 3026N 07820W 6971 03041 9918 +100 //// 077059 060 048 002 01
074530 3026N 07822W 6971 03042 9930 +092 //// 069056 057 048 002 01
074600 3026N 07825W 6964 03053 //// +087 //// 068057 058 048 004 01
074630 3027N 07827W 6970 03048 9939 +089 //// 067061 062 048 004 01
074700 3027N 07830W 6971 03049 9931 +097 //// 071056 059 048 005 01
074730 3027N 07832W 6965 03056 9935 +095 //// 068053 054 050 003 01
074800 3027N 07835W 6969 03056 9942 +092 //// 064056 057 048 003 01
074830 3028N 07837W 6967 03060 9939 +096 //// 059056 058 049 003 01
074900 3028N 07839W 6963 03065 9932 +103 +094 061055 056 051 002 00
074930 3028N 07842W 6965 03065 9934 +102 +091 062060 061 051 002 00
075000 3029N 07844W 6968 03064 9936 +102 +092 062061 061 053 001 00
$$
;

Missed #39 - they're skirting the N edge. I'll try to post a graphic after the VDM if nobody picks it up.