ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I called it, it's over the roach!

[caneseddy]

Wow. Hope the whole season isn't like Emily. Doubt it. Some of the remnants of Emily might rain on me this weekend.

Emily reminded me of Earl back in 2004.....Earl was forecast to become a hurricane and strike Florida but never fully organized and died out in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard.....we all know which storm came after Earl in 2004...I'm just sensing that there will be a few surprises in store for us.

[StormClouds63]

Besides Earl (2004), Debby (2000) and Chris (2006) come to mind.

What a pair ... Don and Emily. Give me a quality "fish" storm to track ... Arlene, so far, has been the best of a very sorry bunch. Still think it will be Gert that will be the season's "signature" storm ... we'll see.

[TexasF6]

IT'S DEAD JIM!!! (someone have that pic?)

[ConvergenceZone]

Man based upon the traffic this thread has got for Emily , I can't even imagine how busy this board will be this season once the next strong hurricane is expected to effect the USA

[wxman57]

Bones has an announcement:



He doesn't think Emily will regenerate.

[Cyclone1]

... ... ... Huh. Well, I didn't expect that.

Now what?

[artist]

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

I'm curious, since she did develop, but then degenerated, how can they give it a big win when it was only half right?

[Agua]

Thank the good Lord in Heaven! Please keep protecting us.

[Portastorm]

Thank you wxman57 ... that image just isn't the same when posted by someone else. I tried but it just wasn't right.

[Canelaw99]

Just throwing out this snippet from the 5pm discussion:

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= I recomend all to visit Talking Tropics forum to digest what the experts (CSU,NOAA and TSR) have updated in their August updates. It looks like many long nights ahead checking the models.

[AFWeather]

But it didn't develop. It always had a questionable LLC, and the 40-45kt winds were present well before NHC upgraded it. The Euro verified well.

[Rgv20]

The legend of King Euro grows...

[Shuriken]

While everyone is partying and watching Star Trek, they should be gently reminded that the exact same thing happened with Gustav in 2008 -- it looked like it was gone, and then a tiny micro LLC popped off the southwestern tip of Haiti and moved south underneath and around Jamaica.

-- If you're watching ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov, pull out to a medium zoom and keep an eye on the twists and kinks near Jamaica.

[FireRat]

This is why we had to wait for Emily to hit Haiti first. It might prove to be a natural disaster for Haiti (floods and mudslides) no matter the classification. I personally don't see risk dates until August 7th-10th, will be interesting to see if anything pops up by then. For now....Emily shouldn't be a problem tomorrow and Saturday.

However since I've dared to predict Florida brushed on Aug. 7 and the Carolinas or north gulf coast affected August 8-10...I'll have to hold on to my guns. I do accept I may be way off, but can't change what I said earlier. Well, for the better this storm degeberated, thank goodness!

Although it's dead and this is great news, let's still keep an eye every now and then around Cuba in the coming days just in case.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chrisjslucia]

Tonights 5pm Advisory


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WERE
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
EMILY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH HAS WEAKENED IT IS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GUSTS COULD STILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

This is the difficulty for many of the islands - not simply the status / severity of the storm but the rainfall. With too many Caribbean countries unable to cope with intense rainfall - deforestation, development in areas prone to flooding, poor drainage, creaking physical infrastructure etc, etc - and a topography that lends itself to huge volumes of water run off into developed areas, it is often that this is the big issue for us. Tomas was devastating because of the previous systems that had dumped rain and then to get over 500mm in 24 hours was simply overwhelming. T%he wind did damage but the rain killed.

As a consequence, I feel there is a need to look at weather impact and review whether the system of focusing on storms alone is enough. Not trying to downplay the absolute necessity of monitoring for the major storms and hurricanes that NHC does a great job at and that have devastated communities across our region, USA and Central and Latin America in any way. Simply that as more information is more readily available that at any time previously, and to far more people, then the information needs of different communities sometimes need re-evaluation.

Sorry to drone on for so long. In the meantime, I hope all forecasts of 20 inches of rain in Haiti turn out to be far too pessimistic.

[Kory]

While everyone is partying and watching Star Trek, they should be gently reminded that the exact same thing happened with Gustav in 2008 -- it looked like it was gone, and then a tiny micro LLC popped off the southwestern tip of Haiti and moved south underneath and around Jamaica.

-- If you're watching ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov, pull out to a medium zoom and keep an eye on the twists and kinks near Jamaica.

FYI, Gustav never did die out like Emily. He stayed much more organized his whole lifespan.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20087.asp

[Patrick99]

Yeah, it's not going to care that it was a former tropical storm, but by the same token...it's not going to care that it was a former tropical storm. If you know what I mean. Its past status has no bearing as to whether it regenerates or not. Not sure I'd say it's over just yet. There are still some vortices out there that are going to be heading out over very warm water, and things happen at night in the tropics.

[stormhunter7]

I disagree with the placement of the NHC 5pm adv. where they put the left over emily... if u look at there map.. they put in in the channel between Cuba and Haiti. I think the newly forming emily is about to exit Haiti into the Atlantic/Bahamas. Making an image to show what i think is going on