ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Come here emily .....

[ozonepete]

Are the remnants splitting into two pieces, with one north of Hispaniola and one south?

Not really. It just looks that way on the satellite images because the circulation is getting severely disrupted by the mountainous terrain over Haiti. Most all of the circulation will eventually move nrth of the island.

[ozonepete]

Come here emily .....

That is just too funny. And creepy. LOL.

[SouthFLTropics]

Come here emily .....

That is just too funny. And creepy. LOL.

Hey, I was told earlier today that she has a Living Will with Do Not Resuscitate orders on it.

Instead, let's try this...

[SouthDadeFish]

Well there is still vorticity in the area, just next to zero convection. What an epic collapse. First Don now this. What a blessing for Haiti and the DR.

[cycloneye]

Well there is still vorticity in the area, just next to zero convection. What an epic collapse. First Don now this. What a blessing for Haiti and the DR.

Still,heavy rains will prevail in the area where they dont need another disaster in Haiti.

[SouthFLTropics]

It looks like the body of Emily is being sucked off to the Northeast by the trough that is leaving...That's leaving the head nothing behind to work with. Even if the circulation is vigorous without convection it will be meaningless!

After all of these late nights this past week model watching I can officially say...

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I give her about a 60% chance of regeneration this point and agree with the NHC on that.

Good vorticity is there and there is some new convection blowing up just NW of the old "LLC"...that is a good sign actually.

Some model support is still there, shear should be low and the air is moist in the Bahamas - not to mention the very high SSTs there.

That said, the remnants of Emily should head NW into the Bahamas and if something develops there is a high chance it will be far enough east of Florida to not be a problem for Florida, despite what the HWRF is showing.

The weakness east of Florida is unseasonably large and pronounced for this time of year.

[cpdaman]

0z nam shows nada as far as regeneration goes weak sub 1012 low tommorrow dissipating as far as i can tell

[blp]

I am intersted in the below area in the next 12hrs. Most of the 18z models show regeneration starting in that area.



Also this is area with the greatest vorticity right now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well there is still vorticity in the area, just next to zero convection. What an epic collapse. First Don now this. What a blessing for Haiti and the DR.

Still,heavy rains will prevail in the area where they dont need another disaster in Haiti.

I don't see much on WV loops over Hispaniola in terms of convection. Just a moist airmass. Could have been much worse in my opinion.

[blp]

If it means anything the GFS is bringing Emily back starting at 30hr on the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

My friend as much as I consider you a very good friend give it up. I am with you but it's just not going to happen.

Yea, but there is nothing else out there at the moment. It is hard to let go sometimes especially after reading some 200+ pages of posts.

[cycloneye]

Well there is still vorticity in the area, just next to zero convection. What an epic collapse. First Don now this. What a blessing for Haiti and the DR.

Still,heavy rains will prevail in the area where they dont need another disaster in Haiti.

I don't see much on WV loops over Hispaniola in terms of convection. Just a moist airmass. Could have been much worse in my opinion.

Absolutly,it would be much worse, so is a win win situation for those two countries especially for Haiti.

[SouthDadeFish]

It would only be fitting if all of the sudden the Euro spins this storm up. Just when you think one thing, the opposite happens.

[dixiebreeze]

trends this evening further west by some of the guidance....IMO, I expect regeneration tomorrow and near hurricane strength 30-50 miles east of South Florida Saturday evening...

I'm with you Vortex.

[underthwx]

The satellite pic posted above makes me think it still has a pretty fair chance of reorganization. Just my own uneducated opinion. Good night all

[HurricaneWarning92]

18Z HWRF landfall near Jupiter as hurricane .....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2060.gif

LOL. i just dont see Emily reorganizing to reach hurricane status.

[artist]

I am not sayng it is gonna happen, but I will remind people that there is still a circulation and it will travel over the Gulf Stream and into a low shear zone. It isn't out of the question that it could regenerate.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I am not sayng it is gonna happen, but I will remind people that there is still a circulation and it will travel over the Gulf Stream and into a low shear zone. It isn't out of the question that it could regenerate.

Oh im with you on this one. No doubt it could regenerate. But IMO, i dont think it would reach hurricane status, not even a high end tropical storm. Maybe 40-50 mph but that would be it.

[HurricaneWarning92]

whats there to do now that Emily is gone? (at least for the time being). The Atlantic is dead. No activity. Sucks that it ended this way. After 200+ pages...