ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[L1GSXR750]

Her eye sure looks to be tightening up. Just an FYI I live in Va Beach and will be posting videos to youtube when the storm is passing. I will post links so everyone can see what is going on!

[WeatherGuesser]

and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is.

I would load everything I could into the motorhome and head towards Albany.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Large wide view:
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/4079/image3bi.jpg

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261336
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 33 20110826
132630 3106N 07627W 7500 02390 9867 +141 //// 142089 093 067 018 01
132700 3107N 07625W 7514 02378 9875 +138 //// 138093 094 064 023 01
132730 3109N 07623W 7510 02382 9889 +126 //// 136093 094 063 027 01
132800 3110N 07622W 7498 02406 9896 +127 //// 137096 099 061 024 01
132830 3111N 07620W 7528 02374 9902 +128 //// 142088 090 063 023 01
132900 3113N 07619W 7519 02388 9892 +142 +145 145089 091 067 020 00
132930 3114N 07617W 7507 02406 9893 +146 +142 146092 093 067 016 00
133000 3115N 07615W 7529 02386 9899 +145 +143 148093 094 065 010 00
133030 3117N 07613W 7517 02403 9906 +143 +136 147091 092 061 008 00
133100 3118N 07612W 7507 02420 9914 +142 +134 147091 092 062 008 00
133130 3120N 07610W 7507 02426 9924 +137 +138 147090 092 060 010 00
133200 3121N 07608W 7504 02435 9934 +132 //// 145089 090 058 015 01
133230 3122N 07606W 7514 02424 9935 +134 //// 144089 093 057 012 01
133300 3124N 07605W 7531 02407 9940 +133 //// 148089 092 061 011 01
133330 3125N 07603W 7502 02443 9938 +136 //// 149085 086 058 012 01
133400 3126N 07601W 7509 02441 9945 +133 //// 147085 088 060 011 01
133430 3128N 07559W 7516 02436 9953 +131 +136 146087 089 057 011 00
133500 3129N 07558W 7499 02459 9954 +135 +125 145089 090 056 008 00
133530 3131N 07556W 7512 02448 9963 +131 +129 145087 088 054 007 00
133600 3132N 07554W 7508 02456 9970 +128 +125 145089 089 053 007 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 261359
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 30 20110826
134930 2923N 07613W 6964 03030 9912 +093 +050 218079 080 055 005 00
135000 2921N 07612W 6967 03035 9904 +105 +050 217079 080 053 001 00
135030 2920N 07611W 6965 03038 9904 +108 +050 217080 082 054 001 00
135100 2919N 07610W 6970 03037 9907 +109 +051 217080 081 054 000 00
135130 2918N 07609W 6966 03046 9913 +105 +052 218079 080 054 002 00
135200 2917N 07608W 6968 03044 9917 +105 +052 211081 082 054 010 00
135230 2916N 07606W 6968 03046 9947 +084 +051 212081 084 055 011 00
135300 2915N 07605W 6972 03046 9960 +076 +048 212083 087 055 015 00
135330 2914N 07604W 6969 03048 9961 +076 +047 214082 084 055 011 00
135400 2912N 07603W 6970 03053 9948 +090 +045 214079 080 054 007 00
135430 2911N 07602W 6963 03065 9949 +094 +044 212078 079 053 004 00
135500 2910N 07601W 6966 03063 9947 +096 +043 210077 077 053 000 00
135530 2909N 07600W 6967 03065 9948 +100 +043 211076 077 052 001 00
135600 2908N 07558W 6965 03070 9950 +099 +043 212077 077 050 000 00
135630 2907N 07557W 6967 03070 9951 +101 +044 211076 077 049 000 00
135700 2906N 07556W 6970 03070 9956 +100 +044 210074 075 049 000 03
135730 2905N 07555W 6967 03076 9959 +100 +045 210074 075 049 000 00
135800 2904N 07554W 6966 03080 9965 +096 +045 211074 075 048 000 03
135830 2902N 07553W 6966 03080 9963 +099 +046 211073 074 047 000 03
135900 2902N 07551W 6961 03088 9969 +095 +046 210073 074 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is.

I would load everything I could into the motorhome and head towards Albany.

Then west towards Rochester at least.

[Chacor]

Fairly evident SW'ly shear.

[WYNweather]

This is going to be bad. Recall a discovery show called IT could happen. See link below Think they should start putting it on the air now. If i recall right the episode is vary close to what is going on now...

http://www.tv.com/it-could-happen-tomor ... mmary.html

[Hogweed]

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)

am I reading that right? 84 mph at the surface?

And that's actually quite a bit higher than the 9:56Z Vortex. ( 65kts (~ 74.8mph))

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261346
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 34 20110826
133630 3133N 07553W 7505 02464 9973 +130 +119 145088 089 053 007 00
133700 3135N 07552W 7510 02460 9972 +136 +105 144087 087 /// /// 03
133730 3138N 07553W 7507 02468 9980 +132 +100 143086 087 050 004 00
133800 3140N 07554W 7510 02464 9980 +133 +099 141085 085 /// /// 03
133830 3142N 07557W 7507 02468 9981 +129 +110 139085 085 /// /// 03
133900 3142N 07559W 7509 02462 9976 +130 +108 138085 086 /// /// 03
133930 3141N 07601W 7508 02460 9971 +134 +103 138085 086 051 003 00
134000 3140N 07603W 7507 02458 9968 +130 +116 140087 090 055 005 00
134030 3139N 07604W 7502 02459 9964 +129 +120 141088 089 053 004 00
134100 3137N 07606W 7509 02447 9960 +129 +124 141089 091 055 008 00
134130 3136N 07607W 7533 02415 9954 +129 //// 137086 089 056 011 01
134200 3135N 07609W 7519 02428 9947 +132 //// 142083 085 055 013 01
134230 3133N 07610W 7500 02449 9945 +131 //// 142089 091 057 009 01
134300 3132N 07612W 7522 02417 9942 +130 //// 144089 090 058 012 01
134330 3131N 07614W 7530 02408 9937 +133 //// 144087 088 061 009 01
134400 3130N 07615W 7517 02417 9930 +135 //// 141087 088 061 009 01
134430 3128N 07617W 7521 02412 9923 +138 //// 139089 090 059 008 01
134500 3127N 07618W 7519 02407 9918 +138 //// 138090 091 060 008 01
134530 3126N 07620W 7519 02405 9910 +142 +146 138089 090 060 009 00
134600 3124N 07621W 7518 02402 9905 +141 //// 137091 094 062 012 01

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261409
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 31 20110826
135930 2904N 07549W 6966 03082 9971 +094 +048 207073 073 /// /// 03
140000 2906N 07550W 6972 03076 9965 +097 +048 208072 074 044 000 03
140030 2908N 07551W 6966 03079 9963 +098 +048 207074 075 049 000 00
140100 2910N 07551W 6969 03074 9962 +095 +048 207074 074 050 000 03
140130 2912N 07551W 6966 03076 9957 +099 +047 205075 076 052 000 00
140200 2915N 07551W 6967 03074 9955 +100 +047 203076 076 052 000 03
140230 2917N 07551W 6969 03066 9954 +098 +047 202076 077 052 000 00
140300 2919N 07551W 6967 03068 9950 +097 +047 202077 078 053 001 00
140330 2922N 07551W 6969 03060 9950 +095 +047 201079 080 054 000 00
140400 2924N 07551W 6970 03060 9951 +093 +047 200080 081 055 000 00
140430 2927N 07551W 6966 03059 9945 +095 +046 199080 081 055 002 00
140500 2929N 07551W 6967 03055 9942 +096 +046 198080 081 056 002 00
140530 2931N 07551W 6966 03055 9946 +089 +046 200083 084 057 003 00
140600 2934N 07551W 6969 03048 9956 +078 +046 198082 084 058 005 00
140630 2936N 07551W 6964 03052 9953 +078 +045 197085 085 057 007 00
140700 2939N 07551W 6963 03049 9940 +085 +044 199084 085 058 006 00
140730 2941N 07551W 6968 03042 9932 +089 +044 199082 083 058 006 00
140800 2943N 07551W 6965 03041 9927 +091 +044 198085 086 058 006 00
140830 2946N 07551W 6967 03036 9931 +087 +044 197084 084 060 010 00
140900 2948N 07551W 6967 03036 9920 +095 +043 196086 088 060 009 00
$$
;

[xironman]

Looks like it will be a while until the storm can head right

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

When was the last time a recurving mature cyclone actually experienced an appreciable increase in strength while crossing the Gulf Stream? I always hear this as a rationale, but it seems an "excuse of last resort" if you examine empirical evidence, especially for cyclones whose potential is being capped by factors other than SST, like Irene.

The last storm I remember bombing out in this location is Hugo, but it wasn't in a recurve and still underneath a ridge. It also developed an amazing outflow jet which has little to do with SST. The fact that it happened to be over the Gulf Stream may be coincidental more than anything else.

I agree with this. I always hear of every cyclone that gets this way - "The Gulf Stream will provide heat to make her bomb" - Not very many have, in fact I cannot think of any where the Gulf Stream actually helped the storm.

[curtadams]

Does the SLOSH model account for the angle of incidence and speed of motion? Irene is expected to rake most of the mid-Atlantic coast, and that means most coastal areas will only get the water blown in over an hour or two, as opposed to a big pile of water pushed forward for days as in Ike, Rita, Katrina, etc. I would expect the SLOSH model to significantly overstate surge for most of the coast at risk, excepting only the regions where Irene is going ashore at a more direct angle, which is currently predicted to be the Outer Banks and the southern coast of New England.

I do see a potential additional risk for NYC. When Dennis 2005 came in, for some reason that big wave of water he was pushing came ashore partly in the Big Bend area of Florida, even though that area didn't see significant winds, presumably because the shape of the coast channelled the water there. I could imagine Irene's winds blowing water NW as she traverses the region from NC to NE and that water could pile up in NYC.

[littlevince]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261356
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 35 20110826
134630 3123N 07623W 7516 02400 9902 +139 //// 137088 091 065 012 01
134700 3122N 07625W 7504 02407 9893 +141 //// 135088 089 065 014 01
134730 3120N 07626W 7507 02399 9892 +136 //// 136084 086 065 021 01
134800 3119N 07628W 7514 02383 9885 +137 //// 141096 101 065 016 01
134830 3118N 07630W 7542 02351 9879 +140 //// 140097 099 064 014 01
134900 3117N 07631W 7511 02384 9874 +140 //// 140094 095 060 015 01
134930 3115N 07633W 7517 02370 9867 +143 //// 138090 091 062 012 01
135000 3114N 07634W 7510 02373 9859 +144 //// 138091 092 063 012 01
135030 3113N 07636W 7508 02367 9850 +145 //// 136090 093 066 011 01
135100 3111N 07637W 7535 02328 9843 +143 //// 134092 093 068 014 01
135130 3110N 07639W 7506 02352 9834 +141 //// 133091 092 069 020 01
135200 3109N 07641W 7498 02353 9827 +138 //// 135093 094 069 020 01
135230 3107N 07642W 7507 02333 9810 +146 //// 139097 099 069 012 01
135300 3106N 07644W 7506 02324 9795 +150 //// 142097 098 069 012 01
135330 3105N 07645W 7512 02308 9787 +149 //// 142093 093 072 019 01
135400 3103N 07647W 7542 02268 9779 +149 //// 139094 097 073 018 01
135430 3102N 07648W 7519 02283 9768 +147 //// 140096 097 073 013 01
135500 3101N 07650W 7494 02298 9752 +149 //// 142099 100 074 021 01
135530 3100N 07651W 7510 02270 9744 +146 //// 143103 106 076 025 01
135600 3058N 07653W 7504 02269 9729 +151 //// 146104 108 077 012 01


000
URNT15 KNHC 261419
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 32 20110826
140930 2951N 07551W 6970 03030 9924 +090 +043 193092 093 060 008 00
141000 2953N 07551W 6969 03029 9932 +080 +043 195089 090 060 009 00
141030 2956N 07551W 6964 03035 9914 +096 +043 196089 090 061 004 00
141100 2958N 07551W 6967 03029 9915 +093 +043 194088 089 060 004 00
141130 3001N 07551W 6968 03028 9905 +101 +043 193090 091 061 003 00
141200 3003N 07551W 6966 03030 9918 +091 +044 191089 091 063 005 00
141230 3006N 07551W 6970 03022 9912 +094 +044 190090 092 062 003 00
141300 3008N 07551W 6966 03029 9905 +098 +043 189090 090 063 003 00
141330 3011N 07551W 6964 03028 9906 +096 +043 189089 090 063 004 00
141400 3013N 07551W 6970 03018 9914 +087 +044 188091 093 063 005 00
141430 3016N 07551W 6967 03020 9921 +080 +043 187092 092 063 007 00
141500 3019N 07551W 6966 03022 9917 +082 +044 185094 097 064 008 00
141530 3021N 07551W 6968 03018 9922 +077 +044 183098 099 063 009 00
141600 3024N 07551W 6964 03023 9918 +079 +044 181100 102 064 008 00
141630 3026N 07551W 6970 03016 9920 +079 +043 178103 103 064 011 00
141700 3029N 07551W 6969 03018 9924 +077 +042 178098 101 063 013 00
141730 3032N 07551W 6962 03027 9922 +078 +041 178095 096 064 013 00
141800 3034N 07551W 6971 03017 9923 +079 +041 175091 092 064 014 00
141830 3037N 07551W 6964 03024 9919 +082 +041 174092 092 064 011 00
141900 3039N 07551W 6967 03022 9921 +081 +041 173092 092 064 010 00
$$
;

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

I was wondering how "physical size" is actually measured. I know they can pretty acurately determine the wind radius, but is that regarded as its size? Are the rotating bands of clouds that are already into NC, but not producing wind or rain considered as part of it?

Most of the "size" that you see are her outflow. These are upper level clouds that are essentially the hurricanes "exhaust".

Physical size is usually determined by the extent of tropical storm force winds. I usually ignore visual when looking at how "big" as storm is - and go right for IR which tells you where the low pressure center is actually convecting and the clouds are cold. I look to see where the yellows give way to orange. Or on SSD NOAA's water vapor/IR overlay (just choose the floater, then Water Vapor). Where the blue changes to that brown/red. Those are "generally" the boundaries where the good stiff winds start.

[SNOW_JOKE]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...ERN NC REGION...
AS IRENE MOVES NWD DURING THE DAY...OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD AND WWD THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE ONTO THE NC COAST LATER TODAY. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE INTENSE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...WITH 0-3 KM SRH EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 300-600 M2/S2 TONIGHT. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES...INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST MUCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC OUTER BANKS...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF IRENE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE COAST INDICATES THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php

[rosethornil]

If I was your beloved sister, living here in Norfolk, Virginia, would you suggest I stay here or flee to some cheap hotel?

I live several miles from the ocean and waterways, but I'm on a finger of Lake Whitehurst (which is just a storm-water retention pond). It's never flooded beyond a foot or two in height, which keeps it far, far away from the houses.

My house is a 1950s brick ranch - low to the ground and very solid.

But that wind...

Your thoughts?

Sister Rose

[petit_bois]

Can someone help me find the slosh models for the New Jersey to New England area?
Thanks...

[Frank2]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank