ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[NDG]

12z models, much closer to SE FL.

[stormreader]

Question: The NHC does have the red shading to include the area south of eastern Cuba along with the Bahamas to the north. If development would occur there what would it mean in terms of track and forecast movement?? Would it still mean that we could expect the system to eventually move north across Cuba with a coming weakness pulling it up, or could we expect a more westerly component?

[stormreader]

Okay I guess I misunderstood you NDG. I thought you were implying that the south coast of Cuba (surface trough) had the greatest potential for development. But no?? You also think that in the coming day or so, it will be the seas of north of Cuba where we can expect development??

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If it means anything the GFS is bringing Emily back starting at 30hr on the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

My friend as much as I consider you a very good friend give it up. I am with you but it's just not going to happen.

Yea, but there is nothing else out there at the moment. It is hard to let go sometimes especially after reading some 200+ pages of posts.

I know that why I am as bad as you are still reading all these post, and even still wondering just maybe it might happen.

[wxman57]

Moderate shear + no low-level convergence = no redevelopment.

I can see a bit of a swirl up around 22.5N/77W, but all storms have been ripped away well to the east. No sign of the shear letting up.

[stormreader]

Moderate shear + no low-level convergence = no redevelopment.

I can see a bit of a swirl up around 22.5N/77W, but all storms have been ripped away well to the east. No sign of the shear letting up.

Wxman--what do you make of the 60% chance for redevelopment given by the NHC?

[NDG]

The more I look at that area the more I think they placed the best track position in the middle of two potential areas for cyclogenesis, I think just a little east has the best potential, I see some convergence trying to get going just SW of Crooked & Acklins Islands in the Bahamas near 22 N & 76 W.

[NDG]

CIMSS agrees with me.

[wxman57]

Moderate shear + no low-level convergence = no redevelopment.

I can see a bit of a swirl up around 22.5N/77W, but all storms have been ripped away well to the east. No sign of the shear letting up.

Wxman--what do you make of the 60% chance for redevelopment given by the NHC?

Part Stacey Stewart's higher estimate from last evening, part Beven and Avila keeping continuity in subsequent shifts, and part the NHC's thinking that it's not a bad idea for folks in the Bahamas & Florida to continue to keep an eye on it. I don't think they really think that any redevelopment is imminent.

[Jevo]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

[xironman]

It is 48 hours on that 60%, tomorrow the conditions could be better. That is when the GFS does something with it.

[mutley]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

Blob watching mode is engaged.

[ozonepete]

This looks the most likely spot to me. And it matches the convergence area on the CIMSS chart someone posted recently.

[HurricaneBelle]

Shouldn't this still be on the Storm2K map? It's the equivalent of an invest, since it's being outlooked and the tropical models are still running for it.

[ozonepete]

Here's the other area where there is clearly rotation going on.

[sandyb]

They are going to be starting the tropical models closer to the surface trough than by the mid level vorticity. It will interesting.

AL, 05, 2011080512, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W,

Where can I find this information? I would like to read up on it

[GCANE]

They have the bulls-eye at ~22.4N 77.0W

[artist]

Shouldn't this still be on the Storm2K map? It's the equivalent of an invest, since it's being outlooked and the tropical models are still running for it.

my understanding is the map is automatically updated by NHC data, in other words s2k doesn't really do it themselves.

[amawea]

I agree with you too NDG: looks like ozonepete does too.

[flashflood]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

That's for sure on both parts

Would be nice if a blob came into radar range late this afternoon to watch as well. There seems to be dry air to the NW of the area of slight turning N. of Cuba, however I see some convection here and there in throughout that area so it not too dry to support a blob for now.