ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[mf_dolphin]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

Please take this storm seriously. Due the very large windfield Irene could easily have Cat3 or higher surge. Having grown up in North Carolina I know your area pretty well. Surge is definitely going to be your biggest issue in New Bern.

[seahawkjd]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

I'm guessing Skip since you're in New Bern? What was his reasoning behind the increase?

[ROCK]

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane....

Sorry, but this is a discussion board - because it drives you insane doesn't mean it might not be of help to someone else...

The reality is that the fear by some new posters here is palpable and needs to be addressed - many were killed by past hurricanes not only due to inaction but also due to irrational fear that forced them to do something they later regretted...

The current NHC discussion does address the fact that the hurricane will possibly weaken as it passes the NC coast - does it mean the danger is past - no - but it does mean that the public still needs to listen to official statements issued by their local NWS office and public officials through the local media...

Frank

so you downplay a storm based on the winds / category and you dont expect people to take notice? what are you suggesting Frank? Telling them its only going to be a cat 2 at landfall and leaving out the part that it has hurricane force winds 100 MILES from the center is more irresponsible then telling them to get out?....we are being realist here of the potential danger..... You know as well as we all do what kind of water pile up we are talking about.

[maryellen40]

I wonder when they will issue hurricane warnings for NYC?

[Typhoon Hunter]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane. Even if this storm continues to degrade to the point of landfall, it is massive, is destined to unwind slowly and represents an extreme threat. that threat is already in motion...it's the ocean. and it will remain in motion regarless of what the peak intensity is. charley, which struck a surge prone area as a category 4 only generated 6 to 7 feet of surge. compare that to ike which struck as a cat 2 and generated about 20 feet of surge. if that doesn't demonstrate how antiquated the ss scale is i don't know what else to say. and i hope folks coming for info disregard these types of posts, some of which are coming from posters who should know better! put another way, if the average hurricane is a lawn mower, this one is a brush hog. don't mess with it and don't focus on max intensity.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since where does Frank mention anything about a diminished physical threat to the immediate landfall area - he's made a perfectly valid assessment on the current state of the system backed up with reasoning.

Does this Tweet from Wunderground "drive you insane" too? - "Dr. Masters says, "#Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely" "

Think some people just need to take a deep breath and evaluate the threats but also allow for valid discussion on the current structure and state of Irene.

[mf_dolphin]

Folks as a staff we're going to get a little tougher on posts that we feel could be mis-leading. The situation is life-threatening and we all should be sensitive to that fact.

[Gigsley]

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/n ... n-on-irene

News coming up

[hurricaneCW]

I just checked out some of the Jersey shore web cams and it's full of people, it's like nobody is taking this seriously at all, it's just literally another day at the beach.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Outer rainband has reached Charleston... some gusts of wind and heavy rain here now but wind has calmed down since the initial passage of the band

[ROCK]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane. Even if this storm continues to degrade to the point of landfall, it is massive, is destined to unwind slowly and represents an extreme threat. that threat is already in motion...it's the ocean. and it will remain in motion regarless of what the peak intensity is. charley, which struck a surge prone area as a category 4 only generated 6 to 7 feet of surge. compare that to ike which struck as a cat 2 and generated about 20 feet of surge. if that doesn't demonstrate how antiquated the ss scale is i don't know what else to say. and i hope folks coming for info disregard these types of posts, some of which are coming from posters who should know better! put another way, if the average hurricane is a lawn mower, this one is a brush hog. don't mess with it and don't focus on max intensity.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since where does Frank mention anything about a diminished physical threat to the immediate landfall area - he's made a perfectly valid assessment on the current state of the system backed up with reasoning.

Does this Tweet from Wunderground "drive you insane" too? - "Dr. Masters says, "#Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely" "

Think some people just need to take a deep breath and evaluate the threats but also allow for valid discussion on the current structure and state of Irene.

Dr Masters...good guy and I love his Hugo story...but he has been wrong before. EWRC is what's she's going through..he is seeing the same obs we are....it doesnt matter what category of winds....CAT 2 is good enough to jack things up...ala IKE....its the surge dude...Hwinds 100 miles from the center..WATER..

you can stand out side with anometer all day long and check the winds....but you wont be standing in a 6-10 ft surge area with 15-20ft waves on top of that.....

[tolakram]

Since someone mentioned Jeff Masters post I think this part is appropriate to focus on.

Full post at: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1902

Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. At those times, Irene is expected to be near the NC/VA border, then close to Long Island, NY, respectively. Thus, storm surge damage rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. It looks like Irene will pass New Jersey during low tide, which may limit the storm surge inundation to 3 - 6 feet there. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Keep in mind he is not an official source, just one persons opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wsquared77]

Please take this storm seriously. Due the very large windfield Irene could easily have Cat3 or higher surge. Having grown up in North Carolina I know your area pretty well. Surge is definitely going to be your biggest issue in New Bern.

I would love to hear more of your thoughts on this topic. This is our first storm since moving to New Bern, and, honestly, I'm having a hard time find New Bern specific info. I've been through several storms in Miami/Homestead area, but the geographies are very different. Thanks!

[ncbird]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

I'm guessing Skip since you're in New Bern? What was his reasoning behind the increase?

No wasn't Skippy. He has several times eluded to seeing something in the upper atmosphere in combination with warm waters the hurricane will be moving into. I have lived here 18+ yrs and gone through Fran and every hurricane since. I know we are in for a very rough time. The size of this system and the way it is coming in over the water instead of the usual path of making land fall farther south before getting to us here, already has me very nervous as to the potential of this one.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

umm

It will restrengthen a bit. Bet on it. Look at it.

[Typhoon Hunter]

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane. Even if this storm continues to degrade to the point of landfall, it is massive, is destined to unwind slowly and represents an extreme threat. that threat is already in motion...it's the ocean. and it will remain in motion regarless of what the peak intensity is. charley, which struck a surge prone area as a category 4 only generated 6 to 7 feet of surge. compare that to ike which struck as a cat 2 and generated about 20 feet of surge. if that doesn't demonstrate how antiquated the ss scale is i don't know what else to say. and i hope folks coming for info disregard these types of posts, some of which are coming from posters who should know better! put another way, if the average hurricane is a lawn mower, this one is a brush hog. don't mess with it and don't focus on max intensity.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since where does Frank mention anything about a diminished physical threat to the immediate landfall area - he's made a perfectly valid assessment on the current state of the system backed up with reasoning.

Does this Tweet from Wunderground "drive you insane" too? - "Dr. Masters says, "#Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely" "

Think some people just need to take a deep breath and evaluate the threats but also allow for valid discussion on the current structure and state of Irene.

you can stand out side with anometer all day long and check the winds....but you wont be standing in a 6-10 ft surge area with 15-20ft waves on top of that.....

Exactly! And neither I, Frank or Dr. Masters have insinuated anything different!

[Sanibel]

What I worry about is those folks out on the end of those estuary backwaters in Pamlico. They are tough crabber/farmer people that might not be in touch with authorities and be aware of warnings.

[SunnyThoughts]

Rock is correct in the above post. The winds will be high enough to do some damage for sure...and power outages will be enormous...but the threat of WATER with the storm surge is VERY real and VERY scary. You can hide in a sturdy building from the wind (when the wind is within reason that is) But you can't hide from storm surge. Here is a great description of storm surge...

The maximum potential storm surge for a particular location depends on a number of different factors. Storm surge is a very complex phenomenon because it is sensitive to the slightest changes in storm intensity, forward speed, size (radius of maximum winds-RMW), angle of approach to the coast, central pressure (minimal contribution in comparison to the wind), and the shape and characteristics of coastal features such as bays and estuaries.

Adding to the destructive power of surge, battering waves may increase damage to buildings directly along the coast. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard; extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish any structure not specifically designed to withstand such forces. The two elements work together to increase the impact on land because the surge makes it possible for waves to extend inland.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its about to hit water that is +2 degrees warmer.

[psyclone]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane. Even if this storm continues to degrade to the point of landfall, it is massive, is destined to unwind slowly and represents an extreme threat. that threat is already in motion...it's the ocean. and it will remain in motion regarless of what the peak intensity is. charley, which struck a surge prone area as a category 4 only generated 6 to 7 feet of surge. compare that to ike which struck as a cat 2 and generated about 20 feet of surge. if that doesn't demonstrate how antiquated the ss scale is i don't know what else to say. and i hope folks coming for info disregard these types of posts, some of which are coming from posters who should know better! put another way, if the average hurricane is a lawn mower, this one is a brush hog. don't mess with it and don't focus on max intensity.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since where does Frank mention anything about a diminished physical threat to the immediate landfall area - he's made a perfectly valid assessment on the current state of the system backed up with reasoning.

Does this Tweet from Wunderground "drive you insane" too? - "Dr. Masters says, "#Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely" "

Think some people just need to take a deep breath and evaluate the threats but also allow for valid discussion on the current structure and state of Irene.

you're missing my point. I'm not quibbling with the view that the storm is degrading. by all appearances it is. but, it is doing so from a high baseline and still represents an extreme threat. we have visitors on this board and today is d day for them. they are making important decisions, which, at the extreme could be life and death decisions. we need to be aware of that and post accordingly. not everyone on here now is a storm chaser or weather geek and we need to be cognizant of that. at the very least...post the disclaimer.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wsquared77]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

I'm guessing Skip since you're in New Bern? What was his reasoning behind the increase?

No wasn't Skippy. He has several times eluded to seeing something in the upper atmosphere in combination with warm waters the hurricane will be moving into. I have lived here 18+ yrs and gone through Fran and every hurricane since. I know we are in for a very rough time. The size of this system and the way it is coming in over the water instead of the usual path of making land fall farther south before getting to us here, already has me very nervous as to the potential of this one.

As someone who's been through several storms here, I'd love to hear your thoughts about New Bern as well. I'm especially interested in what areas of downtown tend to flood. Feel free to PM me! Thanks!