ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[mf_dolphin]

Please take this storm seriously. Due the very large windfield Irene could easily have Cat3 or higher surge. Having grown up in North Carolina I know your area pretty well. Surge is definitely going to be your biggest issue in New Bern.

I would love to hear more of your thoughts on this topic. This is our first storm since moving to New Bern, and, honestly, I'm having a hard time find New Bern specific info. I've been through several storms in Miami/Homestead area, but the geographies are very different. Thanks!

New Bern (as well as many places in that area) have a long history of flooding. You're in a coastal plain at very low elevation and have a river as well. The surge will be forced up in the Pemlico Sound and right up the river. Add to that the heavy rainfall that's going to swell the river and you have a very bad situation.

[Aja]

Tree on vehicle with people trapped inside...George Griffith Rd & Riverland Rd - James Island, SC. This is from the squalling lines from Irene coming from the west side.

Traffic is backed up on Folly Road after a power pole fell on a bridge by Crosby Fish & Shrimp heading on to the island.
http://www.live5news.com/slideshow?widgetid=35344

DISCLAIMER: I am a journalist, not a meteorologist.

[wsquared77]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

I'm guessing Skip since you're in New Bern? What was his reasoning behind the increase?

No wasn't Skippy. He has several times eluded to seeing something in the upper atmosphere in combination with warm waters the hurricane will be moving into. I have lived here 18+ yrs and gone through Fran and every hurricane since. I know we are in for a very rough time. The size of this system and the way it is coming in over the water instead of the usual path of making land fall farther south before getting to us here, already has me very nervous as to the potential of this one.

As someone who's been through several storms here, I'd love to hear your thoughts about New Bern as well. I'm especially interested in what areas of downtown tend to flood. Feel free to PM me! Thanks!

[SNOW_JOKE]

NYC, Washington now under Hurricane warning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... e#contents

[InstantWeatherMaps]

12Z GFS 00:


12Z GFS 12:

[Hogweed]

It is very notable that the I.K.E values as posted by Masters have actually increased despite the slight pressure rise

Destructive Potential for Surge /Waves now 5.1 on a scale of 0-6.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

12Z GFS 24:

[Chacor]

NYC, Washington now under Hurricane warning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... e#contents

Not true.

NYC is under a hurricane watch while DC is under a tropical storm warning. What you linked are merely coastal warnings which do not reflect well inland.

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 15:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 15:12:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°44'N 77°24'W (30.7333N 77.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 208 miles (335 km) to the SE (133°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,652m (8,701ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 147° at 99kts (From the SSE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.02 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:36:40Z

[Ivanhater]

Folks, it is extremely important not to spread false information at this time. Please check before posting

[Macrocane]

Are the recon missions over, if not I can continue to post the observations, littlevince left almost an hour ago and nobody took over that's why I'm asking.

[Ivanhater]

Latest SREF model..used for short range looks terrible for NYC

[superdeluxe]

It is very notable that the I.K.E values as posted by Masters have actually increased despite the slight pressure rise

Destructive Potential for Surge /Waves now 5.1 on a scale of 0-6.

Can a expert talk about if this is true, why it might raise?

[InstantWeatherMaps]

12Z GFS 36:

[mutley]

Latest steering:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

Is the 300 to 850 mb still the correct one to use for Irene at the moment?

[Macrocane]

I see that NOAA plane is still flying at low level so I will post its HDOBs.

Edit: I will post USAF HDOB's too, please stop me if any of the missions is over.

[SunnyThoughts]

Man, she's huge. Flooding rains are going to be a huge problem, on top of everything else.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES15152011238HDfIn9.jpg

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261526
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 44 20110826
151630 2820N 08128W 6401 03896 0074 +070 -027 334023 023 /// /// 03
151700 2819N 08130W 6402 03895 0071 +073 -033 332024 025 /// /// 03
151730 2818N 08132W 6402 03896 0066 +077 -043 329024 024 /// /// 03
151800 2817N 08134W 6402 03897 0071 +075 -046 327024 024 /// /// 03
151830 2817N 08137W 6403 03896 0070 +075 -033 330024 024 /// /// 03
151900 2816N 08139W 6401 03897 0068 +076 -032 329023 024 /// /// 03
151930 2815N 08141W 6403 03896 0068 +077 -034 328023 024 /// /// 03
152000 2814N 08143W 6403 03897 0069 +077 -046 327023 023 /// /// 03
152030 2813N 08145W 6403 03897 0068 +078 -039 328022 022 /// /// 03
152100 2812N 08148W 6402 03899 0072 +076 -042 328022 022 /// /// 03
152130 2811N 08150W 6402 03898 0074 +074 -040 330022 022 /// /// 03
152200 2810N 08152W 6402 03899 0074 +075 -038 327022 022 /// /// 03
152230 2809N 08154W 6403 03898 0078 +071 -025 331022 022 /// /// 03
152300 2808N 08156W 6455 03831 0079 +076 -028 334023 023 /// /// 03
152330 2807N 08158W 6635 03606 0078 +092 -018 338023 023 /// /// 03
152400 2806N 08201W 6871 03317 0084 +106 +016 347024 025 /// /// 03
152430 2805N 08203W 7087 03060 0098 +108 +065 346026 027 /// /// 03
152500 2804N 08205W 7285 02829 0098 +123 +075 343028 028 /// /// 03
152530 2802N 08207W 7525 02558 0112 +126 +087 339027 028 /// /// 03
152600 2801N 08210W 7772 02285 0119 +138 +089 345027 027 /// /// 03

[Hogweed]

It is very notable that the I.K.E values as posted by Masters have actually increased despite the slight pressure rise

Destructive Potential for Surge /Waves now 5.1 on a scale of 0-6.

Can a expert talk about if this is true, why it might raise?

I'm no expert but here's the link to the latest data http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

At 7:30Z values were Wind 2.9 ; Surge/Waves 4.7
At 13:30Z now Wind 3.0 Surge/Waves 5.1

[terrapintransit]

Latest SREF model..used for short range looks terrible for NYC

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF ... 9z/f54.gif

That is a seriously chilling site..


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from the quoted post