ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Sanibel]

Is that a more westward trend?

[northjaxpro]

Bastardi.....


Big systems with banding, a hurricane in its embryonic stage
http://t.co/oS7UGWm
Could be cat 2 or 3 by the time it reaches around PR Tue

I definitely agree with his reasoning here.

[HURAKAN]

comparison

[Dean4Storms]

I would like to get an opinion on where the center is located because I still see a very broad circulation...wxman57?

Looks like 2 competing circulations still there, might be the reason why the convection is having a hard time consolidating.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have a better upload site than image shack ... wont let me upload animated gif ...

[Gustywind]

[AdamFirst]

Anyone have a better upload site than image shack ... wont let me upload animated gif ...

TinyPic works with animated GIFs

[jlauderdal]

12Z Nogaps...Across South FL and up the west side of the state...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Gulp.

another sofla hit, if just 10% actually materialized this place would be a permanent federal disaster area

['CaneFreak]

Agreed...this will likely be the reason that they wait for the upgrade until tomorrow...latest 850 vorticity chart shows an elongated vortex chain again...spanning nearly 5 degrees of longitude...

I would like to get an opinion on where the center is located because I still see a very broad circulation...wxman57?

Looks like 2 competing circulations still there, might be the reason why the convection is having a hard time consolidating.

[SouthFloridawx]

I noticed that as well. Looks really elongated.

Agreed...this will likely be the reason that they wait for the upgrade until tomorrow...latest 850 vorticity chart shows an elongated vortex chain again...spanning nearly 5 degrees of longitude...

I would like to get an opinion on where the center is located because I still see a very broad circulation...wxman57?

Looks like 2 competing circulations still there, might be the reason why the convection is having a hard time consolidating.

['CaneFreak]

Folks...don't get me wrong...this thing is going to explode once it consolidates...I could see a hurricane approaching the islands on Monday night or something like that...but until it consolidates, it is just going to be a slow developer...I don't expect an upgrade until tomorrow at either 5 or 11...its just too broad for the time being...

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1863
Not a trace of Don; What's next?

Posted by: JeffMasters, 19:41 GMT le 30 juillet 2011

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

[TampaFl]

Miami NWS AFD:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 301853
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR NEXT WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE DEEP LAYERED MEAN
RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING TO JUST
EAST OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME
POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN EXPECTED ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...NO SURPRISE THERE!

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOME 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED. NHC NOW GIVES THIS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(SHOULD IT INDEED DEVELOP ITS NAME WOULD BE EMILY) TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO BY MID
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...THERE`S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. IF
IT BECOMES A HURRICANE IT WILL FEEL THE TROUGH MORE AND GET PULLED
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
MEAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. ALSO...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION WITH THE 30.00Z RUN (12Z NOT IN YET) OF
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. SO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS
THAT IT`S JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

RGB loop.

[Gustywind]

[WxEnthus]

This morning:




Latest:

[ROCK]

definetly see another low in there...to the west around 49N....not looking at the east convection.....FWIW this thing is hauling west....

[somethingfunny]

Thank goodness it's just the NOGAPS at this point.

well actually the NOGAPS, GFDL and EURO are very similar tracks.. EURO is not something you look at lightly

Why am I always the last to know these things????

[Mouton]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Right now course is NW and moving at a good clip. There is some close in shear too ahead. Over the SE US and across the western atlantic a pretty strong ridge of 1020 HP which should begin to slow the systems NW movement and probably take it more westerly in 24 hrs. The internals are not in line as yet, some competition so I suspect slow development during the next 24-36 hrs but all that changes as it approaches the Leewards. I expect a path about 3/4s up the chain, south of PR and then brushing Hispanola to the south....My sense is it will be huricane strength by PR and probably a cat 2 or so by Hispanola. This generally follows the GFDL and NOGAPS. Where it goes from there to me is very uncertain...a turn to the north will pretty much destroy the circulation but if it skips south and stays south of eastern Cuba, it becomes a huge problem from Key West to the La Texas border as I expect it to turn north when it is in the southern gulf.

Interestingly, the Canadian model was one of first to pick up this system and it orginally had it a fish but has been moving west but still a fish. GFS is a fish too and consistantly so.

Will be interesting to see what NHC has to say this PM.

Obviously this first post is not an official projection of any credible source, just my best guess.

Vince

[KWT]

One big thing to remember though people...nearly ALL the global models start this off to far south from the looks of things...

Therefore I think the models will shift right next run to react to the likely hood of a much quicker development then they expect and a further north starting point.

HWRF looks good with regards to that...However qwith the caveat that the models obviously need to be watched as there is good agreement on the general trend for slightly further west as well...