ATL: IRENE - Models

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#781 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:27 am

Looks a bit like a charlie track setting up.. starting to pass just east of isle of youth crossing cuba towards eastern gulf..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#782 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 am

Blown Away wrote:Geeez, spends alomst a day over W Haiti, man they don't catch a break.


You're probably looking at yesterdays run of the 12z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#783 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:28 am

Going over western Cuba...trough has opened a weakness over the eastern Gulf but the trough is lifting out...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#784 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:29 am

hr 168, edit:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#785 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 am

Trough has lifted out..ridging still influencing

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#786 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 am

165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW
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Re:

#787 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out
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Re: Re:

#788 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out


yep.. either the ridging keep it moving.. or the steering gets weak


just as I wrote that... steering weakens a little .. its bombs out and drifts north
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#789 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

hr 180, edit:
Image
Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#790 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:33 am

Heading NW

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#791 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:34 am

Loos more like Dennis 2005 track so far
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#792 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am

186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#793 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 am

186 hours...slow crawl NW/NNW

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Re:

#794 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak


Looks like a Panhandle run unless it doesnt move and another shortwave picks it up..well see
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Re: Re:

#795 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:37 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:186 hrs still drifting N to NNW and stronger...weakness still there but steering is weak


Looks like a Panhandle run unless it doesnt move and another shortwave picks it up..well see


or ridging build in ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#796 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

The joys of model watching :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#797 Postby weatherguy2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

hr, 216 , panhandle landfall:
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Last edited by weatherguy2 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#798 Postby fox13weather » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW


Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out



Honestly. who knows?? 165 hours out?? We don't even have a named storm on the map and we are talking absolutes? What is the margin of error at 165 hours??? 500 miles???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#799 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 am

216 landfall... dennis style..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#800 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 am

Pensacola

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