ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Vortex]

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 780W, 30, 1011, WV

Luis,

exactly where long range MIA indicates..just sw of andros

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC FRI AUG 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110805 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110805  1800   110806  0600   110806  1800   110807  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  78.0W   24.3N  79.5W   25.8N  80.7W   26.8N  81.3W
BAMD    23.0N  78.0W   23.9N  79.6W   24.8N  81.2W   25.7N  82.6W
BAMM    23.0N  78.0W   24.0N  79.6W   25.0N  80.9W   25.9N  81.8W
LBAR    23.0N  78.0W   24.4N  79.9W   25.8N  81.6W   27.1N  82.7W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110807  1800   110808  1800   110809  1800   110810  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.0N  81.1W   29.6N  77.2W   31.8N  70.3W   33.8N  60.0W
BAMD    26.4N  83.5W   27.5N  84.4W   28.3N  83.6W   28.5N  80.0W
BAMM    26.7N  82.3W   27.7N  81.7W   28.3N  79.3W   29.6N  74.9W
LBAR    28.2N  83.0W   29.8N  81.9W   30.6N  78.1W   32.5N  72.1W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          51KTS          36KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          51KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.0N LONCUR =  78.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  20.9N LONM12 =  74.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  73.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[ozonepete]

There is another LLC right at 22N 76W which the NHC just mentioned. That's the red circle. So there are actually 2 that I can see. The one around 23.3N 78.5 is the one MIA radar is picking up. Thoughts?

[canes04]

I'm going with 22/76. It is broad at this time.
Vortex, good call this morning. Watching closely.

[cycloneye]

The one around 23.3N 78.5 is the one MIA radar is picking up. Thoughts?

23.0N-78.0W per 18z Best Track. Pretty close your view of low.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection on the increase around the 1011MB low:

[mutley]

The one around 23.3N 78.5 is the one MIA radar is picking up. Thoughts?

23.0N-78.0W per 18z Best Track. Pretty close your view of low.

Yikes. What will that do to the models? Are they still running them for Emily's carcass?

[Vortex]

gator,

I think she really fires convection tonight...Radar will come into play as well...Wouldnt be surprised to see a few bands develop overnight and spread across SE Fl...

[cpdaman]

surface obs are so sparse in that area 22/76

that i guess the NHC is comfy enough to say there is a LLC there

which is exactly where i've been lookin all day

but perhaps i'm wrong
(and NHC to) i mean i see what everyone else does at a23/78 lookin better so who knows?

[cycloneye]

Are they still running them for Emily's carcass?

I posted the 18z models at the thread for that.

[cycloneye]

18z Tracks



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[Jevo]

Surface obs don't indicate anything near 22N/76W, just SE flow and 1014-1015MB pressure there. Obs do indicate a trof axis along about 78.3W with a weak lower-level rotation near 23N. In 24 hours this will already be past SE Florida, turning north, then heading NE and out to sea. No significant threat to Florida. Possibly a few daytime thunderstorms tomorrow as it passes. I don't see any sign of it becoming better organized at present. Shear is still there.

Heh thats why I like wxman's analysis.. straight to the point with data to support it.. and the right amount of


Im real glad I left my patio furniture out.. wrought iron tables are heavy.. Nice day here in Coral Springs, FL.. I am enjoying the blob watching and the activity around here today.. makes the work day go by fast

[SouthFloridawx]

The bamd would certainly be an interesting track for a storm.

[Nimbus]

Yikes. What will that do to the models? Are they still running them for Emily's carcass?

Only the BAM suite and the CMC had this in the gulf the BAM shallow probably had it running up towards the northern gulf coast last run. We would have to wait till this gets in the gulf and upgraded again before the dynamic models could do much better.

[mutley]

Are they still running them for Emily's carcass?

I posted the 18z models at the thread for that.

Thanks, cyclone eye. Still worth watching in my opinion. I hope some of that moisture makes it to north central florida, but probably not.

[gatorcane]

Click the link below and then click on the FRONTS tab. You can see where the low is located.

I can also see clouds quicks blowing off of cuba and getting sucked into where that Low is located (inflow).

Lots of convection now starting to surround that area of lower pressure.

There is something going on there. If trends continue I can see this up to 80%+ by next TWO:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[ozonepete]

If it's the LLC by 23.3N 79W that will be quite interesting. That one sure looks like it's going WNW into the eastern Gulf. No way that's going to wind up east of Florida.

[mutley]

Click the link below and then click on the FRONTS tab. You can see where the low is located.

I can also see clouds quicks blowing off of cuba and getting sucked into where that Low is located (inflow).

Lots of convection now starting to surround that area of lower pressure.

There is something going on there. If trends continue I can see this up to 80%+ by next TWO:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If that area actually wraps storms around it, I'll be pretty amazed. Emily has been surprising.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis/satellite that indicates the trof placement and the weak lower-level rotation center. Nothing indicated near 22n/76w in the obs.

[wxman57]

Click the link below and then click on the FRONTS tab. You can see where the low is located.

I can also see clouds quicks blowing off of cuba and getting sucked into where that Low is located (inflow).

Lots of convection now starting to surround that area of lower pressure.

There is something going on there. If trends continue I can see this up to 80%+ by next TWO:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's where the weak low pressure area WAS located quite a while ago. It's not there now.